To The Moon

$GE Aerospace(GE)$  Earning result to be release before market opening on Tuesday (22 Apr).

Forecast Data

2025 Guidance: GE Aerospace projects full-year adjusted EPS of $7.60–$7.90, with organic sales growth up to 3%. Analysts forecast 18% earnings growth in 2025 and 19% in 2026.

Q1 2025 Expectations: Revenue is anticipated to grow mid-single digits YoY, driven by strong demand for commercial aviation services.

Key Drivers & Risks

Tariff Impact:

New U.S. tariffs on aerospace components (e.g., 125% on Chinese imports) threaten to disrupt GE’s supply chain and raise input costs.

Mitigation: GE plans to invest $1 billion in U.S. manufacturing (double 2024 levels) to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers.

Boeing Dependency:

30% of GE’s aerospace revenue is tied to Boeing’s 737 MAX production, which faces ongoing delays. Tariff-related uncertainties could further strain this partnership.

Commercial Aviation Recovery:

Rising global air travel demand (IATA projects 2% annual passenger growth through 2025) supports GE’s engine maintenance (MRO) revenue, which is expected to grow 15–20% in 2025.

Stock Trend & Technicals

Recent Performance: Shares fell 6.4% on April 18, 2025, amid tariff concerns, underperforming the S&P 500.

Support/Resistance :

Support: $165–$170 (2024 low range).

Resistance: $200–$210 (analyst price targets).

Analyst Sentiment: Mean target of $220.14 implies 25% upside from current levels ($176).

Forecast Conclusion

GE Aerospace offers moderate-risk exposure to aerospace recovery , buoyed by strong MRO demand and cost-cutting initiatives. However, near-term headwinds from tariffs, Boeing’s challenges, and macroeconomic uncertainty could limit upside. Investors should monitor Q1 earnings (April 22) for updates on tariff mitigation and margin resilience.

Bull Case: Execution on U.S. manufacturing investments + Boeing stabilization → $200–$220 range.

Bear Case: Escalating tariffs + supply-chain delays → Test $165 support.

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