To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

The US Market - Stocks slided in holiday-shortened week

• U.S. stocks ended lower in a shortened trading week, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% as uncertainty around tariffs and mixed corporate earnings kept investors on edge.

• The Dow tumbled 2.66% for the week, logging losses in three of the four trading sessions. The blue-chip index was dragged down by a sharp 22% drop in UnitedHealth (UNH) after the healthcare giant missed earnings expectations.

• Fed Chief Powell warning that the Trump's tariff policies could slow economic growth by increasing costs for consumers and businesses. However, Powell sees no rush to move regarding interest rates. Trump criticized Powell, calling for immediate rate cuts and stating that Powell’s "termination cannot come fast enough."

• March retail sales leaped 1.4%, the biggest monthly gain in over two years, as consumers rushed to buy autos and other big-ticket items before the impact of Trump tariffs hits.

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The US Sectors & Stocks - UNH lost 22% by missing

• Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, eight rose, led by energy with 6.8% up for the week, buoyed by rising oil prices. Real estate sector followed with a solid 5% climb. The worst performer was the consumer cyclical.

• Nvidia (NVDA) retreated more than 5% over the week, as the company said its H20 AI chip will also require an export license for China, resulting in what could be a $5.5 billion charge.

• TSMC (TSM) topped Q1 expectations with earnings per share jumping 58% and revenue rising 39% to $25.53 billion — both indicating accelerating momentum. While the chip giant raised Q2 revenue guidance, it maintained full-year targets, signaling caution amid lingering trade tensions, export restrictions, and AI-related uncertainties. Shares slipped about 3%.

• ASML (ASML) also beat first-quarter estimates but offered downbeat Q2 sales guidance. The stock lost 4% on the week as concerns lingered over tariff uncertainties.

• UnitedHealth (UNH) missed first-quarter earnings consensus and slashed full-year guidance, citing Medicare costs that were "far above" expectations and expected to stay high. UnitedHealth also guided down the EPS forecast for 2025. UNH plummeted Thursday to drag other health insurers.

• Goldman Sachs (GS) handily beat first-quarter estimates and unveiled a $40 billion stock buyback. CEO David Solomon noted a "markedly different operating environment" heading into Q2. Bank of America (BAC) echoed a positive tone, with CFO Alastair Borthwick saying consumers are still spending, underscoring the resilience of the U.S. economy. However, Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser struck a more cautious note, pointing out that clients are preparing for increased macro headwinds. Shares of all three banks rose following their earnings announcements.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) soared 14% after announcing positive final-stage trial results for its new diabetes and weight-loss pill, orforglipron — a potential blockbuster in the booming obesity drug market.

• Netflix (NFLX) reported record profit for Q1 and comfortablely beat analysts’ estimates. Co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said that entertainment has been resilient during past recessions, and Netflix has rolled out lower-priced subscription plans that give consumers an alternative if they want to save money.

• Hertz (HTZ) skyrocketed 112%, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a sizable stake. Pershing has significantly increased the position — to 19.8% — through shares and swaps, becoming Hertz’s second-largest shareholder, CNBC reported.

Hong Kong Market - HSI rebounded 2.3%

• Hong Kong stocks bounced back, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) gaining 2.3% for the holiday-shortened week, buoyed by growing optimism that Beijing is preparing a new round of stimulus to counter U.S. tariffs and sluggish domestic demand.

• Premier Li Qiang signaled that additional measures to spur consumption and support the troubled property sector were in the pipeline.

• Analysts at Tianfeng Securities highlighted Chinese internet giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou as relatively insulated from global demand swings, calling them a “defensive play” amid geopolitical headwinds.

Singapore Market - STI rallied 6%

• Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) soared nearly 6%, notching its best week in months as easing trade tensions and upbeat economic data powered gains.

• The city-state’s Q3 GDP jumped 5.4% year-over-year, beating expectations and prompting an upward revision of the full-year growth forecast to 3.5%.

• Investors are also eyeing Singapore’s upcoming general election on May 3, the first under new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, as a key political milestone.

Australian Market - ASX 200 rallied 2.26%

• Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 2.26%, lifted by a rally in energy and gold stocks. BHP (ASX: BHP) rose 3% after reporting record iron ore and copper production.

• A better-than-expected jobs report added to the bullish tone, with 32,200 jobs added in March, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. The strong labor data prompted markets to dial back expectations of a sharp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in May.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - A big earnings week

• Trump's policies continue to dominate investor sentiment, as markets weigh the mounting costs for corporate America and the potential drag on the broader U.S. economic outlook.

• Economic data released this week are focused mostly on the housing market. New- and existing-home sales figures for March are due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, the third installment this year, will be published Thursday.

• Stuart Kaiser, Citi’s head of U.S. equity trading strategy, said the next few weeks could prove pivotal for market direction heading into the summer.

• “We need to see some good news on the tariff front, especially with our key trade partners,” Kaiser noted. “If you don’t get that, I think the market’s going to have to start increasing the odds of a recession, on the view that these tariffs could be higher and last longer than initially hoped.”

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Earnings

• Roughly 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter earnings so far, and early results have trailed historical averages. However, over 100 S&P 500 firms, or 22% of the index, are set to report this week, according to FactSet. Investors will get a far better sense of how these trends hold, improve, or further deteriorate.

• Tesla and Alphabet will kick off the reporting period for the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. Tesla shares are down more than 40% to start 2025, while Alphabet is off nearly 20%.

• Tesla delivered 13% fewer vehicles than a year ago, raising concerns about demand and pricing power amid escalating tariff risks. Beyond earnings, investors will be looking for updates on Elon Musk’s role in the Trump administration, progress on the lower-cost model, robotaxi timelines, and outlook for key markets like China and the U.S.

• Alphabet reports Thursday after the close. Analysts expect earnings of $2.01 per share on revenue of $89.3 billion, up from $1.89 and $80.5 billion a year ago. But the tech giant is facing regulatory headwinds — a federal judge last week ruled that Google violated antitrust law, adding to a string of legal challenges.

• Elsewhere in the tech-adjacent space, telecom giants Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile may provide indirect insight into Apple’s tariff exposure when they report.

• The week’s heavy earnings slate also includes GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin on Tuesday; IBM, Boeing, and Chipotle on Wednesday; and Procter & Gamble, Merck, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, and Intel on Thursday.

Tesla Q1 Preview: Margin Concerns, Energy Business, Updates on New Models Are Focus

Alphabet Q1 Preview: Google Cloud, Search Advertising and Monopoly Allegation Are in Focus