Singapore Downgraded 2025 GDP Forecast to 0%-2% due to Tariff War and MAS Cut Pace of SGD’s Trade-Weighted Appreciation【CSOP Fixed Income Weekly】
【SRT】
Last week, SRT gained amidst the revived risk sentiment, though uncertainties linger. Gains were led by industrial, office and retail by subsector and MLT, FLT and MINT by individual REITs. UBS notes Singapore’s recession risks have eased. UBS favors defensive S-REITs with stable leases and long-term rental income visibility, which buffer economic shocks.
$CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF(SRT.SI)$ WTD Total Return: +4.94%
【MMF】
Last week, after US Treasuries stabilized after the past volatile weeks as the pace of tariff announcements slowed. Short-term risks to yields will probably be double-sided given that a few FOMC members emphasized inflation expectations as a key input to short-term policy direction. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has highlighted 2 potential tariff scenarios (1) large and long-lasting policies causing inflation to surge to 4-5% range and (2) smaller tariffs causing inflation to return to 3%.
We expect CSOPUMM $CSOP US Dollar Money Market ETF Unlisted Share Class P(HK0000503836)$ to continue to deliver stable yield in the near term. As of 20250417, the fund has a net yield at 4.19%. ^
$MMF Net 7-day Yield: +4.19%
^ 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal.
【CN】
Investors are assessing the timing and scale of possible rate cuts in China, with a China Securities Journal commentary suggesting the PBOC remains cautious, emphasizing strategic use of existing monetary policy space. The article notes monetary policy easing may be delivered when tariff impacts are clearer, or when bond yields rise from fiscal expansion, or when equity risks heighten, likely prolonging a flattening yield curve as growth concerns weigh.
Looking at YTD performance as of 2025/04/17, CYC/CYB’s NAV gained +0.18% in CNY and fell +0.20% in USD*.
* CYC/CYB/CYX USD NAV is converted based on benchmark FX, subject to rounding error
Global Market Outlook
【SG】Singapore Downgraded 2025 GDP Forecast to 0%-2% due to Tariff War and MAS Cut Pace of SGD’s Trade-Weighted Appreciation
As a result of the US-China tariff war weighing on global growth, Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) downgraded Singapore’s 2025 GDP forecast to 0%-2%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has also further cut the pace of SGD’s trade-weighted appreciation, in response to easing inflation and rising growth risks.
【US】Fed’s Beige Book to Release This Week
Moving into the week, key releases include the publication of the Fed’s Beige book and PMI data.
Source: CSOP, Bloomberg, JPM, and HSBC as of 2025/04/17.
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