To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Elon, it’s great to have you back! On Thursday, April 24, the four most representative bearish options were closed out: $TSLA 20250815 190.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 185.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 170.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250815 165.0 PUT$ . I talked about these positions in my March 12 article. This time, the bears didn’t close out everything, but they exited the majority. Even though Tesla’s fundamentals haven’t improved much, Musk’s return definitely forced the shorts to back off their heavy bets. Another big shift: Tesla’s bearish options flow is finally meaningful again. We’re now seeing put positions open at strikes above $200$. For the last few months, virtually all bearish open interest was at strikes starting with $1xx$, meaning that without Musk at the helm, Tesla needed to lose half its value before anyone was interested in catching the knife. Now, the market expects Tesla to trade mostly in the $220$–$270$ range for May, with an optimistic scenario of $235$–$290$. The reason for the higher floor? Institutions put on a zero-cost bearish spread—buying the $235$ put and selling two $220$ puts to hedge, with the premium fully offset. If Tesla doesn’t drop below $235$ by May 9, this strategy doesn’t lose money. Buy $TSLA 20250509 235.0 PUT$ Sell $TSLA 20250509 220.0 PUT$ x2 We’ve seen this “nothingburger” structure before: when institutions aren’t willing to spend a penny on a directional bet, it’s a strong sign we’re headed for consolidation. Initial outlook: for the week of May 2, expect a $220$–$270$ range (final upside depends on where institutions are selling calls). For the week of May 16, expect $230$–$260$. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVIDIA’s outlook needs a tweak—upside now looks like it could reach $120$. Bullish options flow is turning more positive. Someone just bought 11,000 contracts of the May 23 $120$ call: $NVDA 20250523 120.0 CALL$ . My sense is the stock will likely oscillate around $110$ for the next few weeks. I’m planning to close my $110$ sell call next week. On the bearish side, there are still bets on a major crash—same story as before. Just manage your sizing; don’t go overboard with leveraged sell puts. For the week of May 2, the expected range is $100$–$120$. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY remains on track for a normal bullish move, targeting a return to $560$.