To The Moon

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose last Friday, adding to its strong gains for the week, as investors continue to navigate an evolving global trade landscape while major tech names got a boost.

Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

$GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$

GE Vernova is a leading provider in the energy sector, specializing in renewable energy, power generation, and energy management. The company operates across various segments including wind turbines, gas power, grid solutions, and digital services. GEV focuses on delivering sustainable and efficient energy solutions to meet the growing global demand for cleaner energy sources.

GEV’s Transformation: From Hype to Focused Growth

Back in January, the stock was trading up near $376, wind losses were piling up and management hadn’t yet shown they could keep the wheels on during the spin-off from GE. It looked like a hype story with more problems than promise.

Fast-forward a few months and while this isn’t a perfect business by any means, there’s been a real shift - both in how the company’s operating and how it’s being positioned for the future. Wind is still messy (especially offshore), but Electrification is quietly turning into a reliable profit center and Power is holding its own. The company’s overall direction feels more focused now. They’re picking their battles better, narrowing their product lineup, and starting to show signs of real operational discipline.

At $321, I think GEV is actually getting overlooked. The stock has come down a lot—down almost 30% from its January highs - and I’d argue that decline has more to do with old baggage than what’s happening under the hood right now. In my view, this is a mispriced transition story that’s rounding a corner.

There’s a pretty clear gap between how the market still sees GEV and where the business seems to be heading. Most of the negativity out there is still tied to legacy issues—delayed turbine projects, regulatory headaches, offshore wind overruns—but under the surface things are moving in the right direction. Last year, they were posting adjusted EBITDA margins under 3%. Now they’re pushing 6% and full-year EBITDA jumped from $807 million to over $2 billion. That’s not trivial.

EARNINGS (LOSS)

Valuation’s Not as Rich as It Looks

On the surface, the stock still looks expensive—EV/EBITDA around 26x. But that number’s skewed because Wind is still dragging down the overall margin profile. If you carve out the Power and Electrification segments and run a sum-of-the-parts, the core business is probably trading closer to 16–18x, which is actually pretty reasonable given the quality of the backlog and where they’re headed.

If they can get EBITDA margins up to 8% over the next couple of years—and that’s not crazy given their restructuring and improving mix—a fair value closer to $400 isn’t hard to justify. That’s around 20–30% upside, and that’s without assuming any heroics from offshore wind.

Real Risks? Yeah They’re Still Here

Even though GE Vernova is starting to show signs of life, this isn’t a smooth-sailing story. There are still plenty of ways things could go sideways—and Wind, especially Offshore, remains the biggest question mark.

The supply chain’s another area that could trip them up. Yes, it’s better than it was a year or two ago, but there are still risks around sourcing specialized parts, transportation delays and price spikes—especially for rare earths and large turbine components.

Geopolitical risk is another wildcard. GEV operates in over 100 countries, so anything from a new trade barrier to currency volatility to a project getting stuck in red tape can suddenly become a big issue. Add to that the fact that their whole business model is tied up in policy—grid modernization, clean energy incentives, IRA funding—and you’ve got real exposure if that political wind ever shifts.

Last but definitely not least, this is a business that depends heavily on skilled labor. These projects aren’t cookie-cutter—they’re complex, and getting them done safely and on time is a constant challenge. One bad quarter with an accident or a delay and the story could easily wobble again.

Bottom Line

GE Vernova still has a lot to prove, but the story has changed—and the stock price hasn’t fully caught up. What looked like a messy spin-off six months ago is starting to look more like a focused infrastructure and electrification play with serious tailwinds behind it. The operational clean-up is working, the backlog is healthy, and investor perception is just beginning to shift.

I wouldn’t go all-in yet, but from where I sit, this is a turnaround that’s worth betting on. The upside looks real, and the worst-case risks are no longer as catastrophic as they once seemed. I’m moving from Sell to a solid Buy.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for GE Vernova Inc. in the last 3 months. The average price target is $419.27 with a high forecast of $485.00 and a low forecast of $354.00. The average price target represents a 12.58% change from the last price of $372.42.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4775432-is-wall-street-missing-the-real-growth-story-inside-ge-vernova-rating-upgrade

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4776621-ge-vernova-powerful-energy-player-but-wait-for-a-dip

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