To The Moon

Global Equities: Strong YTD Abroad, But Mind the Long-Term Drag

• Non-US equities (ACWX) are up +9.0% YTD, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains down -6.0%.

• However, over the past 15 years, the performance gap is stark: ACWX +39% vs. S&P +368%.

• Diversification benefit is limited: EAFE/EM correlations to the S&P run 0.75–0.83, reducing portfolio differentiation.

• The brief correlation dip in Feb/Mar (0.38–0.47) was an anomaly, quickly reversed by a return to volatility.

Defensives: Not All Created Equal

• YTD sector winners: Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care — all outperforming the S&P 500.

• Based on 100-day trailing relative returns:

  Staples: Stretched — risk/reward skewed.

  Utilities: Toss-up — valuation sensitive.

  Health Care: Best positioned to extend outperformance.

Trade Tensions: Policy Whiplash Continues

• President Trump appears poised to ease overlapping automotive tariffs, including retroactive relief on steel and aluminum duties — potentially lifting margin pressure for automakers.

• Meanwhile, China denies that talks are underway, contradicting US claims — adding to global trade uncertainty.

Macro & Political Watch

• Treasury Secretary Bessent aims to pass a major tax cut package by July 4, including renewal of Trump’s first-term tax cuts.

• Consumer sentiment has plunged to multi-decade lows.

• Inflation expectations are now at their highest since 1991.

• Trump approval: Tracking at 45%, per NYT average — with concerns rising about inflation and executive overreach.

Tech & Recession Timing: Where's the Bottom?

• The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is still down double digits YTD.

• If a recession unfolds, historical analogs suggest a bottom may arrive ~3–6 months in, followed by 12–18 months to regain prior highs — assuming stabilization in monetary and trade policy.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ headline a week in which 180+ S&P 500 companies report.

• Forecasts, not Q1 results, will drive reactions, given April 2 tariff reset.

Macro Data:

• Tues: Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales

• Weds: Q1 GDP, PCE Inflation

• Fri: April Jobs Report

Bottom Line: Tactical Patience, Strategic Selectivity

• Market volatility ≠ market breakdown — sentiment and positioning are key.

• Near-term, vibes matter as much as fundamentals. But structurally, we’re watching:

  The credibility of tech earnings

  Tariff policy clarity

  Consumer resilience amid inflation fatigue

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.