To The Moon

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$ $GLAXOSMITHKLINE(GSK.UK)$ is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 results (for the period ending 31 March 2025) tomorrow, Wednesday, 30 April 2025, before the London market opens (around 7:00 AM BST).  

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts generally expect Q1 EPS to be slightly lower than the same period last year.For the US-listed ADS (American Depositary Shares), consensus estimates range from approximately $1.04 to $1.08. The year-ago EPS was $1.08.

For the UK-listed shares, consensus is around 40-41 pence per share, compared to 43.1 pence in Q1 2024.

Revenue: Consensus estimates for revenue are around £7.46 billion (approximately $9.54 billion based on current exchange rates). This would represent slight year-over-year growth of about 1.25% compared to Q1 2024 (£7.36 billion).

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Gain 10.41%

GSK had a positive earnings call on 05 Feb 2025 which saw its share price gained 10.41% since.

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance and growth in specialty medicines, particularly in oncology and HIV. However, there are notable challenges in the vaccines segment and financial impacts from litigation and regulatory changes. Overall, the positive aspects and future growth prospects outweigh the current challenges.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Guidance

During the call, GSK outlined its strong performance for 2024, highlighting an 8% increase in sales to over £31 billion and a 13% rise in core operating profit, which contributed to a 12% growth in core EPS. The company upgraded its guidance twice in 2024 and announced a dividend increase to 61p per share. Specialty medicines showed robust momentum with double-digit growth across all therapy areas, notably doubling oncology sales to over £1.4 billion. GSK anticipates further growth in 2025, expecting sales to increase by 3% to 5% and core operating profit by 6% to 8%, supported by promising pipeline developments, including five new product approvals.

GSK's long-term outlook was revised upward, projecting risk-adjusted sales exceeding £40 billion by 2031, with more than 50% of sales driven by Specialty Medicines. Additionally, GSK announced plans for a £2 billion share buyback over 18 months, reflecting confidence in its strategic trajectory and balance sheet strength.

Key Areas To Watch For GSK Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings

Sales grew 8% to over £31 billion, core operating profit increased by 13%, and core EPS rose by 12% for 2024. This performance led to two upgrades in guidance and an increased dividend of 61p per share.

Specialty Medicines: Growth is expected to be driven by newer products, particularly in:

Specialty medicines saw a 19% growth with oncology sales nearly doubling to over £1.4 billion. Blenrep is expected to launch with a significant potential impact on future sales.

HIV: Strong performance anticipated from Cabenuva, Apretude, Juluca, and Dovato.

HIV sales increased by 13% in 2024, driven by strong demand for Cabenuva and Apretude, with a 47% growth for Cabenuva reaching over £1 billion.

Oncology: Continued uptake expected for Jemperli, Zejula, and the newer drug Ojjaara.

Respiratory/Immunology: Focus on growth from Nucala and Trelegy Ellipta.

Vaccines: This segment faces tough comparisons to a strong Q1 last year. Analysts expect sales, particularly for the shingles vaccine Shingrix and the RSV vaccine Arexvy, might show declines or slower growth compared to previous quarters. GSK's full-year guidance already anticipated a low single-digit decline for the vaccine segment overall in 2025.

General Medicines: Performance is expected to be broadly stable, balancing volume growth in key brands against generic pressures.

Zantac Litigation: Any updates regarding the ongoing Zantac litigation and related provisions will be noted.

Pipeline: Progress on key R&D assets and upcoming potential approvals are important for future growth. 13 positive Phase 3 readouts were achieved in 2024, with new product approvals expected in 2025 for Blenrep, depemokimab, and others.

Full Year Guidance: Performance relative to the company's existing 2025 guidance (Turnover +3-5%, Core EPS +6-8% at constant exchange rates) will be a key focus. GSK previously indicated growth would be more weighted to the second half of 2025.

Net debt reduced to £13 billion, and a £2 billion share buyback program was announced, alongside a 5% increase in the dividend.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Price Target

Based on 7 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for GlaxoSmithKline in the last 3 months. The average price target is $39.17 with a high forecast of $45.00 and a low forecast of $33.70. The average price target represents a 2.92% change from the last price of $38.06.

Market analysts have been giving a mixed sentiment for GSK upcoming earnings, so an earnings beat or estimates surprise could create a gap up in its share price.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at how GSK have been trading on the upside since first week of April, GSK is trading above the 200-day period which indicate that the bulls are back in control for a daily uptrend.

RSI have been building strong momentum since and it is showing a bullish reversal for GSK share price, if the bulls could continue to build daily uptrend continuation, then we might see a surprise for a gap up.

But I think we need to exercise some caution especially with Trump tariffs on pharma might have an impact on GSK share price.

Summary

Analysts generally seem to expect GSK's results to align with the company's guidance, with growth in specialty areas potentially offsetting challenges in the vaccine segment. Some models (like Zacks') predict an earnings beat, citing the positive Earnings ESP and GSK's history of surpassing estimates.  

I think as the analyst ratings appear mixed, with "Hold" being a common recommendation, I would suggest we, as investors adopt a cautious optimism pending the results and outlook confirmation.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think GSK could surprise with a positive guidance amid the challenges from Trump tariffs on pharma.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.