To The Moon

The stock market is buzzing with renewed optimism as U.S.-China trade tensions show signs of cooling. On April 29, 2025, China waived tariffs on U.S. ethane, a move that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring 300 points, marking its longest win streak of the year, per Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also climbed, up 0.6% and 0.55%, respectively, fueled by tariff relief for automakers and a flurry of corporate earnings. But not everyone’s celebrating—Starbucks (SBUX) tanked after missing Q2 earnings, and consumer confidence hit a low not seen since May 2020. With markets on edge, let’s dive into the latest movements, pinpoint stocks to watch, and map out trading strategies to capitalize on this shift.

Market Pulse: Tariffs Ease, But Confidence Wavers

The trade landscape is shifting fast. China’s decision to lift tariffs on U.S. ethane signals a potential de-escalation, a stark contrast to the market’s April 2 panic when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a massive sell-off, per Yahoo Finance. The Nasdaq has now fully recovered from that dip, while the S&P 500 notched its sixth straight day of gains—its best streak since November, per Investopedia. However, the U.S. trade deficit hit a record high in March as businesses stockpiled goods pre-tariff, and consumer confidence plummeted to 86, the lowest since May 2020, per Reuters.

Corporate earnings are a mixed bag. United Parcel Service (UPS) rose slightly after beating Q1 profit expectations, announcing 20,000 job cuts to save $3.5 billion in 2025, per Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, Starbucks (SBUX) stumbled in after-hours trading, missing both top and bottom lines for Q2, per Yahoo Finance. In India, defense stocks like Bharat Electronics (BEL) surged on news of a Rafale jet deal with France, per The Hindu BusinessLine. The market’s volatility is palpable—job openings are at a four-year low, and the labor market is cooling, per Yahoo Finance.

Stocks to Watch: Winners and Losers

Here’s who’s making waves today:

• United Parcel Service ( $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ ): Up slightly after Q1 earnings beat, with cost-cutting measures boosting sentiment, per Yahoo Finance.

• Bharat Electronics ( $BENTLEY CAPITAL LTD(BEL.AU)$ ): A top gainer on India’s NSE, riding the Rafale deal wave, per The Hindu BusinessLine.

• Starbucks ( $Starbucks(SBUX)$ ): Down in after-hours trading after a Q2 miss—consumer spending weakness is a red flag, per Yahoo Finance.

• Alphabet ( $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ): Still riding a 3% post-earnings bump from last week’s Q1 beat and $70 billion buyback announcement, per Yahoo Finance.

• Canara Bank (India): A buy recommendation from Mirae Asset Sharekhan at Rs 98-99, with upside potential, per Times of India.

Market Movers Table

Trading Opportunities: Ride the Relief Rally

The tariff reprieve opens doors for strategic trades. Here’s how to play it:

Bullish Plays

• UPS: Buy at $145, stop at $140, target $152. Its cost-cutting plan and tariff relief for shipping could drive gains, per Yahoo Finance.

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Buy at $178, stop at $172, target $185. The buyback and tariff optimism make it a solid tech play, per Yahoo Finance.

International Opportunity

• Bharat Electronics (BEL): Buy at Rs 310, stop at Rs 300, target Rs 330. Defense sector strength in India looks promising, per The Hindu BusinessLine.

Defensive Plays

• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ( $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ ): Buy at $550, stop at $540, target $565. A broad market hedge as volatility lingers, per Reuters.

• SPDR Gold Shares ( $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ ): Buy at $218, stop at $214, target $225. Consumer confidence lows make gold a safe bet, per Reuters.

Risks to Watch

• Consumer Weakness: The Conference Board’s 86 reading signals spending pullbacks—watch retail stocks like SBUX, per Yahoo Finance.

• Labor Market Cooling: Job openings at a four-year low could signal broader economic slowdown, per Yahoo Finance.

• Tariff Uncertainty: While eased, Trump’s trade policies remain unpredictable, per Reuters.

My Plan: I’m going 40% into UPS for its stability, 30% into GOOGL for tech upside, 20% into GLD for safety, and 10% into BEL for international growth. I’ll stay nimble as tariff news evolves.

Visualizing the Dow’s Win Streak

The chart shows the Dow’s steady climb—can it hold above 42,800?

The Big Picture: Opportunity Amid Uncertainty

The market’s breathing easier with tariff relief, but consumer confidence and labor data signal caution. UPS and GOOGL offer near-term upside, while BEL taps into India’s defense boom. Hedge with GLD or IVV as the trade war narrative shifts. Are you jumping on the rally with UPS, or playing it safe with gold? Share your strategy below—let’s ride this market wave together!

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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