NVDA, AMD, INTC, AVGO - Buy or Bail?
Sell #1 - Nvidia.
On 30 Apr 2025, Seaport Research Partners, Analyst, Jay Goldberg recommended a “Sell” rating of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.
His arguments:
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NVDA has been a big winner in the current artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
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Excitement and good news about the company is already reflected in its stock price.
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In other words, NVDA is too expensive now and does not have much room to grow further.
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NVDA’s shares have already dropped about -21.25% YTD (as of 30 Apr 2025).. (see below)
Nvidia stock price - YTD
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Risks for NVDA may include - (1) difficulty & high cost for customers to set up Nvidia’s systems, (2) challenges with cooling and managing the supply chain, etc…
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Some of NVDA’s largest customers are starting to make their own chips, that could reduce its future sales.
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Questions about whether companies are really getting good results from their big investments in AI also arose.
As a result of the above, Goldberg believes that AI spending could start to slow down by 2026.
Against a backdrop of rising tensions between US & China could hurt NVDA’s ability to do business overseas.
This was why Goldberg gave Nvidia a “Sell” rating and set a much lower price target of $100.
Sell #2 - Intel.
Goldberg also slapped a “Sell” rating at $Intel(INTC)$.
He is calling for a “Sell” because:
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INTC is “fighting to survive, currently.
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It does not have a clear AI strategy, that is a bane.
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In terms of personal computer, INTC is losing market share to $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$.
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As for “data centre” chips, it is losing grounds to (a) NVDA, (b) AMD and (c) other large companies making their own chips.
He foresees that INTC faces a tough year ahead and set a low-price target of $18 for the stock.
It is not all doom and gloom though.
(1) Buy #1 - Broadcom.
Goldberg is positive about $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and recommends buying its shares.
His justifications this time round:
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Like NVDA, AVGO is benefiting from the AI trend.
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The difference is investors have not fully recognized Broadcom’s potential yet, unlike the case of NVDA.
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AVGO helps big tech companies like $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and Apple (AAPL) design and produce their own custom chips, that is becoming a more important business as these companies look for alternatives to buying chips from Nvidia.
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AVGO in a great position to grow and with a higher price target of $230, meaning a +16.32% upside potential.
Buy #2 - AMD.
Just so we’re clear, Goldberg also recommended a “Buy” rating for AMD shares with a price target of $110 per share.
He notes that AMD is gaining market share from Intel in both personal computers and data centers.
Furthermore, AMD is working to expand its business in AI as well.
My Viewpoints: (mine only)
If NVDA CEO is “smart” about it, he should exclude sales to China in NVDA’s quarterly forecasts.
This is because the narrow-minded government is only going to tighten, not relaxed its rules on exporting chip (advanced or otherwise) to China.
Any successful sales to China will be a bonus in its quarterly reporting.
Nvidia’s real fall in value will come if
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Cerebras Systems (CBRS) goes for Initial Public Offer (IPO).
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Huawei latest chip Ascend 910D is ready for mass production & sales internationally.
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China finds breakthrough in semiconductor technology that does not require High NA EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography (American’s patent) to produce the most intricate chip.
As for Intel, I am certain US government will want to retain a 100% American chip maker in its stable.
It will be a challenge going forward with a new CEO, new directions, new rounds of layoff, new strategy to reposition itself in the semiconductor industry.
The story is still in the making and with a steep history, Intel will not go down without a fight.
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Do you think there is still hope for Nvidia in the short to medium term ?
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Do you think Intel might be a black horse in the semiconductor chip race ?
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