To The Moon

Earnings Were Solid — But So Were Expectations

As an investor in Big Tech, I was generally pleased with the recent earnings season. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all exceeded expectations across both revenue and EPS, with Microsoft's double-digit jump standing out. However, these results weren't entirely surprising expectations were already elevated, and in some cases, the market had partially priced in the beats.

Magnificent 7

Forward Guidance Now Matters More Than EPS Beats

What really moved the needle this quarter wasn't just the numbers—it was the forward guidance. This is where things got more nuanced. Apple $Apple(AAPL)$   and Amazon $Amazon.com(AMZN)$   both delivered earnings beats but offered cautious guidance. That spooked some investors and triggered modest pullbacks, reminding us that markets are forward-looking.

Microsoft and Meta: Still Leading the Pack

From my portfolio's standpoint, I remain most confident in Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$  and Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  . Microsoft's Azure momentum and expanding AI integration via OpenAI partnerships are building long-term value. Meta, despite external macro challenges like tariffs, continues to show impressive ad strength and margin resilience. I view both as solid long-term holdings with room to grow.

Which is your favourite?

Apple and Amazon: Quality Names, But Short-Term Uncertainty

I'm still holding Apple and Amazon, but I'm a bit more cautious. Apple's guidance suggests softer hardware demand ahead, and Amazon's cloud growth has decelerated slightly. These aren't dealbreakers, but in this current environment, I'm leaning toward more tactical positioning rather than blindly buying dips.

Seasonality Is a Real Consideration

“Sell in May and go away” may be a cliché, but seasonality tends to bring softer equity performance in Q2 and Q3. Coupled with a strong year-to-date run for many of these tech names, I'm not rushing to double down right now. I'd rather maintain a balanced stance and deploy new capital selectively.

Still Bullish on AI — But Waiting for Nvidia

One key piece of the puzzle is still missing: Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  . As the AI poster child, Nvidia's upcoming earnings will either reinforce the AI-led rally or introduce new volatility. I'm watching closely, especially their data center growth numbers and forward guidance, to determine whether the AI trade still has legs through summer.

Macro Headwinds Could Still Surprise

Let's not forget the macro context—interest rates remain elevated, inflation is sticky, and geopolitical tensions persist. Any surprises on those fronts could hit high-valuation tech stocks harder than others. That's another reason why I'm not going all-in right now despite strong earnings.

Taking Profits, Rotating Into Opportunities

I've taken this opportunity to trim some gains in my higher-beta tech positions. With markets near all-time highs, I'm rebalancing into names with better risk/reward setups and potentially adding exposure to sectors that haven't run as far, such as healthcare or industrials.

Final Thoughts: Hold, Watch, and Be Selective

So to answer the original question—am I doubling down or selling? Neither fully. I'm holding onto my conviction names like Microsoft and Meta, being more cautious with Apple and Amazon, and watching Nvidia as a key catalyst. Selectivity and timing will matter more than ever heading into a potentially choppy summer.

Any of them in your watchlist?

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