To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 🚨🔥📈 $SPY Set to Detonate? Record Buybacks, Wave 5 Lift-Off, and Trump Tariff Sparks Ahead 📈🔥🚨

This market isn’t just bouncing, it’s executing a full-blown power reversion. With historic buybacks, a picture-perfect Elliott Wave structure, and fresh tariff and trade policy shifts, $SPY is preparing for a high-velocity breakout.

🧨 Buybacks Hit Record Pace

According to Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates, US companies have already announced over $600 billion in buybacks through 02May25, making this the fastest start to a buyback year in history.

Why it matters:

   •   Buybacks reduce float and increase EPS per share

   •   They signal boardroom confidence and add artificial demand during macro indecision

   •   In cap-weighted indices like $SPY, they distort momentum upward disproportionately

This tailwind is being overlooked by many focused on inflation and the Fed. But structurally, this is liquidity at work in plain sight.

📊 Historic Rally Context

Since the April 7 low, the S&P 500 has climbed 17 percent, recovering all post-Liberation Day losses.

More impressively, it has posted a 13.7 percent gain over the past 21 trading sessions, the strongest such stretch since 2020’s pandemic rebound, and among the top five rallies this century, rivalled only by major inflection points in 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, and 2020.

Yet despite this strength, $SPY is still trading roughly 1.5 percent below its 200-day moving average, suggesting there’s room for continuation without being overstretched.

📈 Elliott Wave Set-Up Confirms Upside Potential

   •   Wave 5 appears in progress, targeting the $571 to $576 zone

   •   Short-term ABC correction toward $558 may complete Wave (4) before pushing higher

   •   Structure remains clean and impulsive

   •   The chart is stamped with: “We Do Not Recommend Selling” and shows a Turning Up signal

   •   Invalidation level is $508.54, far below current price, giving bulls room to operate

📉 Options and Gamma Structure: The Coiled Spring

   •   Spot: $5,670.47

   •   Gamma Wall and Call Resistance: $5,680

   •   1D Max: $5,728.92 (just 1.03 percent above current price)

   •   Put Support: $5,598.80

   •   HVL: $5,635

A slight positive gamma skew is present, meaning dealers are net short puts, which mechanically supports price dips.

📊 Live $SPY Metrics Snapshot 

   •   Price: $564.89

   •   High/Low: $567.50 / $562.76

   •   Volume: 21.92M

   •   Turnover: $12.38B

   •   AUM: $572.2B

   •   NAV: $561.42

   •   Shares Outstanding: 1.02B

   •   Short Interest: 126.8M

   •   Options Volume: 8.48M contracts (Call Vol: 4.00M, Put Vol: 4.48M)

📉 Weekly Chart Observations

   •   $SPY is rebounding off the 2025 low of $481.80

   •   Now testing convergence of MA5 ($548.53), MA10 ($550.63), and MA20 ($574.28)

   •   MACD is curling, and momentum appears to be turning

   •   RSI(6) at 54.47 is trending upward

   •   Price remains below MA30 ($580.18), a future target if the squeeze unfolds

🧠 Market Breadth and Rotation Check

Sector heatmap shows:

   •   TSLA up 4.81 percent, TXN up 2.95 percent, and NEE up 2.58 percent

   •   Big Tech is mixed ~ $GOOG, $MSFT, $NVDA slightly red, while $AAPL and $META stabilise

   •   Energy and Financials are green, supporting cyclical rotation

This isn’t just a tech-led rally. It’s broadening, which historically precedes sustained index gains.

🌎 Macro and Policy Catalyst Watch

   •   Trump confirms that the 10 percent tariff floor on Chinese goods will remain. Press Sec. Leavitt says it’s “non-negotiable.”

   •   A landmark US–UK trade agreement was struck, framed as a breakthrough to open British markets to American exporters

   •   Meanwhile, the millionaires tax proposal is in disarray, facing heavy GOP resistance. If it collapses, a relief rally could follow

🎯 Strategic Outlook

I believe $SPY is chopping between $562 and $565 ahead of a gamma-fuelled breakout.

A clean break above $5,680 could trigger a fast move to $5,728 to $5,760 early next week.

Any intraday fade into $558 to $560 is a potential re-entry zone, supported by gamma structure and Elliott count.

Short interest is low, implied volatility is subdued, and buyback demand is quietly accumulating, the conditions are quietly explosive.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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