To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ 🚗🤖📈 UBER UNLOCKED: STRATEGY, SCALE, AND A BREAKOUT THAT WON’T BE PARKED 📈🤖🚗

I’ve re-entered $UBER for the fourth time at $90.02, building on a series of short-term swing trades that have delivered consistent profit. This setup demanded action! A great opportunity to scoop the dip! 🛍️📉

What I saw was not noise or hype, but the structural retest of a high-volume breakout, forming a clear decision zone just below $92. Price had rejected the $89.70 intraday low and tapped $92.10 with conviction. My entry is now up +0.08 percent, but this trade isn’t about chasing pennies.

It's about positioning ahead of a macro and technical confluence that suggests Uber is about to reprice meaningfully, not temporarily.

📊 Technical Thesis: Breakout Confirmed, Retest Held

As of 15May25, 🇳🇿NZST, Uber is stabilising around $90.04. The stock has broken out from a multi-year consolidation between $60 and $88. The $92 neckline is now acting as support, a classic confirmation signal reinforced by institutional-grade volume of 114.98 million shares.

📈 RSI holds above 50, confirming bullish momentum without exhaustion

📈 MACD is positive and primed for reacceleration

📈 Bollinger Bands are widening, signalling imminent volatility expansion

🎯 Short-term target: $99.40

🎯 Secondary target: $110

⚠️ If $92 fails, $69.92 becomes the reassessment zone

💼 Wall Street Aligns: Analyst Targets Are Rising Fast

Institutions are waking up to the Uber thesis.

✅ Citigroup: Target raised from $92 to $102, “Buy” maintained

✅ Argus: Lifted to $107, citing strength across segments

✅ Wells Fargo: Raised from $90 to $100, reaffirmed “Overweight”

✅ RBC Capital: Upgraded from $82 to $94, “Outperform” rating

✅ UBS Group: Boosted to $107, maintaining long-term conviction

These upgrades reflect confidence in Uber’s evolving model, affordability, autonomy, and global reach.

🌍 Macro Tailwinds and Strategic Elasticity

Car ownership in the U.S. is up 14 percent year on year. Maintenance, insurance, and now tariffs under the Trump administration have made owning a vehicle less appealing. Uber is directly positioned to benefit.

🚌 Route Share: Fixed-route rides at half the price of UberX, running every 20 minutes

🔒 $2.99 Price Lock: Stabilising fares across U.S. cities and Brazil

These are not discounts. They are strategic tools designed for an inflationary, urban economy where transit must be both affordable and flexible.

🧠 The Myth of Tesla Disruption. Uber Is the Infrastructure

The argument that Tesla will displace Uber through autonomous vehicles misses the true mechanics of this market. Tesla may manufacture the cars. Uber owns the rails. It manages the routing, payments, city compliance, and the customer relationship.

Uber already partners with:

🤝 Waymo, expanding in Austin and Atlanta

🚐 Volkswagen, deploying ID. Buzz vans

🌐 Pony.AI, WeRide, and Momenta across MENA and Europe

🔗 Baidu, Toyota, Zoox, Aurora, Nuro, Aptiv, and Volvo

Even if Tesla stays solo, the autonomous vehicle addressable market is far too large for a single player. Uber is the neutral aggregator. The company integrates, scales, and monetises without owning the fleet. That is the winning model.

🧾 Earnings Validate the Model

Uber’s Q1 2025 earnings, reported on 7May25, revealed powerful operational leverage.

💰 Revenue: $11.5 billion (+14 percent YoY)

📈 EPS: $0.83 (beat)

📈 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.87 billion (+35 percent YoY)

💸 Free cash flow: $2.3 billion (+105 percent YoY)

📦 Gross bookings: $42.8 billion

👥 Monthly active users: 171 million

Wedbush’s downgrade to Neutral, citing a “lack of catalysts,” completely misreads the inflection. Uber is executing on autonomy, elasticity, and global expansion simultaneously.

📊 Valuation Snapshot: The Asymmetry Is Clear

PE: 23.1x

PEG: 0.76x

Net margin: 57.6 percent

Revenue growth: 18 percent YoY

Forecasting $75 billion in revenue by 2028 with a 50 percent margin yields $37.5 billion in net income. At a 15x PE, that supports a share price between $251 and $306. This presents a 185 to 247 percent upside from current levels.

🧭 What I’m Watching Next

📅 Q2 earnings on 5Aug25. $12.46 billion revenue and $0.62 EPS expected

🚀 Waymo and VW robotaxi deployment metrics

📊 Route Share adoption across U.S. cities

⚖️ AV regulatory shifts across EU and MENA

🔍 Technical structure. Holding $92 leads to $99.40, then $110

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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