To The Moon

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ is scheduled to release its unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on Wednesday, 21 May 2025, before the U.S. markets open. The management will host an earnings conference call at 8:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time (8:00 PM Beijing/Hong Kong Time) on the same day.

Revenue Estimates: According to analyst consensus, the revenue forecast for Q1 2025 is around CNY 15.795 billion. This represents a significant year-over-year increase of approximately 141.22%.

Earnings per Share (EPS) Estimates: The consensus EPS forecast for Q1 2025 is a loss of CNY -1.769. This represents a year-over-year decrease of 21.99%.

Xpeng (XPEV) Recent Deliveries

Vehicle Deliveries: Xpeng has already announced strong Q1 2025 vehicle delivery numbers, exceeding the upper end of their guidance. They delivered 94,008 vehicles, a significant increase of 330.81% compared to the 21,821 units delivered in the same period last year. This positive delivery figure sets a strong foundation for the upcoming earnings report.

January-April Deliveries: The company also reported delivering 129,053 vehicles in the first four months of 2025, marking a substantial year-over-year increase of 313.45%.

Xpeng (XPEV) Last Positive Saw Share Price Declined By 14.86%

Xpeng had a positive earnings call on 18 March 2025 which saw its share price declined by 14.86% since.

XPeng demonstrated strong vehicle delivery performance, financial results, and strategic advancements in AI and global expansion, despite challenges with gross margin and operational losses. The company's focus on technological innovation and market share growth highlights a positive outlook.

Xpeng (XPEV) Guidance

During the XPeng Inc. earnings call for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the future. XPeng reported a record 91,507 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and over RMB4 billion in free cash flow during the second half of the year. The company's total revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB16.11 billion, a 23.4% increase year-over-year, while vehicle sales revenues rose by 20% to RMB14.67 billion. XPeng also achieved a gross margin of 14.4% and a vehicle margin of 10% in Q4.

Looking ahead to 2025, XPeng anticipates total deliveries between 91,000 and 93,000 units in Q1, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 317% to 326.2%, with projected revenues between RMB15 billion and RMB15.7 billion, marking a growth of 129% to 139%. The company also emphasized its strategic focus on AI technology, autonomous driving, and global market expansion, aiming for a comprehensive product lineup and increased market share by 2026.

Factors to Watch For Xpeng (XPEV) Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings

XPeng achieved a record 91,507 vehicle deliveries in a single quarter, marking significant milestones in scaling and strategic execution.

Margin Performance: While delivery numbers are strong, investors will be closely watching Xpeng's gross margin and overall profitability. The significant increase in deliveries should positively impact revenue, but the impact on margins will depend on factors like pricing, component costs, and the mix of models sold.

Reported over RMB4 billion in free cash flow in the second half of the year, with total revenues reaching RMB16.11 billion for Q4, an increase of 23.4% YoY and 59.4% QoQ.

Gross margin decreased to 14.4% in Q4 2024 from 15.3% in the previous quarter, although it was an improvement from the same period in 2023.

Impact of New Models: Xpeng recently launched the Mona M03 sedan, with a "Max" variant featuring stronger smart driving capabilities expected later this month. Investors will be interested in any initial commentary on the demand and impact of this new model on sales and margins.

R&D expenses increased by 53.4% YoY and 22.9% QoQ to RMB2.01 billion, driven by higher expenses related to the development of new vehicle models.

Smart Driving Technology: Xpeng is positioning itself as a leader in "smart EVs," with autonomous driving as a core pillar. Any updates or progress in their autonomous driving technology and its integration into their vehicles will be a key focus.

XPeng has developed a cloud-based foundational AI model with tens of billions of parameters. Plans to mass-produce self-developed Turing chips for vehicles and humanoid robots this year.

Future Guidance: Investors will pay close attention to Xpeng's guidance for the second quarter of 2025 and any updates to their full-year outlook, especially regarding delivery targets and profitability. Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng previously stated the company is confident in doubling deliveries in 2025 compared to 2024 (190,068 units).

Loss from operations was RMB1.56 billion for Q4 2024, albeit an improvement compared to the previous year and quarter.

Competition in the Chinese EV Market: The Chinese electric vehicle market is highly competitive. Analysts will be looking for insights into how Xpeng is differentiating itself and maintaining its market share against rivals like BYD, Tesla, and NIO.

XPeng's overseas vehicle sales exceeded 20,000 units, ranking first in export volume among China's emerging EV brands.

European Expansion: Xpeng is continuing its expansion into European markets, recently announcing its entry into Italy. Updates on the progress and impact of this internationalization strategy will be noteworthy.

XPeng topped monthly deliveries among China's emerging EV companies for two consecutive months and plans to double international sales and establish over 300 sales and service stores worldwide by 2025.

Xpeng (XPEV) Price Target

Based on 26 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for XPeng, Inc. ADR in the last 3 months. The average price target is $23.21 with a high forecast of $32.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a 11.00% change from the last price of $20.77.

There is a consensus rating of "Buy" for Xpeng stock. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggest a potential upside from the current trading price. However, there is a wide range of price targets, reflecting differing opinions on the company's future performance.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Xpeng's stock (XPEV) has shown strong positive performance over the past year, with an increase of over 150%. Year-to-date in 2025, the stock has also seen significant gains.

If we looked at how XPEV have maintained the positive momentum and trading above the 26-MEA and 50-EMA, there is still strong sentiment for this stock, so if XPEV can provide a narrow loss or even slight profit, this could move the share price higher.

I am expecting a surge in price post earnings as XPEV should be able to provide a better-than-expected earnings per share (EPS).

One worrying concerns is the increased in short interest volume, which could indicate that some investors are planning to take profits if there is another upside from XPEV, because they are concerned of XPEV continued loss making.

This is something we as investors need to watch out.

Summary

Xpeng's Q1 2025 earnings report is expected to reflect strong revenue growth driven by a substantial increase in vehicle deliveries. However, the focus will likely be on the company's ability to improve its margins and move towards profitability.

Updates on new vehicle launches, advancements in smart driving technology, and future guidance will be critical factors influencing investor sentiment. The competitive landscape in China and the progress of European expansion will also be important aspects of the earnings call.

It is important to note that while revenue is expected to grow strongly, the company is still projected to be loss-making in this quarter.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Xpeng could show an improvement of its loss making or even a profit this quarter.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.