That said, I’m cautious. The fraud allegations are serious, and the suspicious options trading before the WSJ article raises red flags. If charges stick, they could lead to big fines and lasting reputational harm. With political pressure on healthcare rising, the risks are elevated.
I wouldn’t short UNH, but I’m not ready to buy either. The business fundamentals are still strong, and if the situation stabilizes, a rebound is possible. I’ll consider a small position if it drops closer to $200, but for now, it’s just on my watchlist.
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- Barcode·05-17You’ve made a strong case Shyon. I agree the drop reflects both real risk and panic, but a 55 percent YTD decline seems to overshoot the fundamentals. Your point about the options flow pre-WSJ is valid and does raise concern. Still, when a director commits nearly half a million in a trust buy during peak uncertainty, that’s not done lightly. It suggests they see the downside as overdone or already priced in. Fundamentally, this is a cash-rich market leader trading at under 12x forward earnings. Unless there’s evidence the business model is structurally impaired, the valuation now looks disconnected from long-term value. I respect the caution around 200, but capitulation levels rarely feel comfortable. If sentiment stabilises, this could re-rate quickly. Insider action and price behaviour suggest someone sees opportunity in the fear.2Report