[Stock Prediction] Nvidia’s Big Test: Growth or Peak?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after market close on May 28 (ET). According to Bloomberg consensus, the numbers look strong once again — revenue is expected to hit $43.27 billion, up 66% year-over-year, with adjusted net income of $22.26 billion and EPS of $0.886.
The ramp-up of the Blackwell architecture is well underway, with H200 shipments accelerating and major cloud players like Microsoft and Google now accounting for over half of Nvidia’s total revenue. Still, pressure is building on the cost side. Gross margin is expected to fall from 73% last quarter to 69.65% this quarter due to weaker yield rates at TSMC and higher packaging costs in Malaysia. R&D spending jumped 49% YoY, with nearly half dedicated to the upcoming Blackwell Ultra.
Investors will also be watching how sustainable this growth really is. While data center now makes up 86% of total revenue, the top five customers account for 58%, raising concerns around customer concentration and pricing power. AMD’s MI300X and Google’s next-gen AI chips are already nibbling at Nvidia’s inference market share. Meanwhile, export restrictions, HBM supply constraints, and the Q2 ramp-up of its Vietnam facility are key variables that could impact delivery schedules and profitability.
🗓 Nvidia ’s earnings call will be held on May 29, 2025, at approximately 05:00 SGT. To set a reminder, click here.
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27 May to 29 May 2025 at 05:00
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While customer concentration and competition from AMD and custom silicon are worth watching, Nvidia’s unmatched software ecosystem (CUDA, TensorRT), early Blackwell Ultra investments, and rapid facility expansion show they’re playing the long game. I'm confident the post-earnings move will be positive given strong fundamentals and guidance potential.
Price to be 140 after earnings!
However, there are growing concerns. Heavy reliance on a few large customers (top 5 making up 58%), cost pressures from TSMC yields and Malaysian packaging, plus rising R&D and competition from AMD and Google — these factors could squeeze margins and test pricing power.
Blackwell’s ramp-up and H200 acceleration offer near-term momentum, but long-term sustainability will depend on how Nvidia navigates concentration risk and evolving supply chain dynamics.
Bullish in the near term, but cautiously watching gross margin and customer diversification.
#Nvidia #NVDA #EarningsPreview #AIChips #StockWatch #GrowthVsPeak
$英伟达 Corp(NVDA)$ 由于人工智能变得越来越复杂，这些年可能会做得很好...将会进行大量的研究和改进，如果公司能够很好地管理它并拥有良好的商业模式，应该会做得很好[Wow][Wow][Wow]
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$将于美国东部时间5月28日收盘后公布2026年第一季度财报。根据彭博社的共识，这些数字看起来再次强劲——收入预计将达到432.7亿美元，同比增长66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，每股收益为0.886美元。
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