To The Moon

In 2025, the dynamics of the pharmaceutical sector are particularly eye-catching.

During this year, $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ , which once challenged the trillion-dollar market value club, has stagnated, while $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ , a leading US healthcare insurance company, has experienced a significant decline.

In contrast, $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ and $Tempus AI(TEM)$ , publicly-listed companies in the online health services niche, have seen a substantial surge in their stock prices.

This stark contrast in market performance has undoubtedly sparked widespread discussion among investors about the future potential of pharmaceutical stocks.

So, among these hot concept pharmaceutical stocks, which one will show greater growth potential?

Refer to the table below:

• The top three market value hot concept pharmaceutical stocks are: $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ , $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ , and $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ .

• The best performers in 2025 are: $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ , $Tempus AI(TEM)$ and $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ .

• According to public market analyst expectations for the next 12 months: $Novavax(NVAX)$ , $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ , and $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ have greater upside potential.

What do you think of the above stocks?

Do you know the fundamentals and highlights of the aforementioned stocks?

Here are some key points to focus on regarding fundamentals and drivers.

(Note: The following content is organized through the TigerAI tool for financial communication.)

1. $Eli Lilly(LLY)$

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global leader in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on developing and marketing drugs across various therapeutic areas, including diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. The company has multiple blockbuster products, such as the diabetes drug Mounjaro and the weight loss drug Zepbound. Eli Lilly holds a significant position in the diabetes and weight loss drug markets, with a rich pipeline and significant future growth potential.

2025 Operational Highlights

• Financial Performance: In Q1 2025, Eli Lilly's revenue increased by 45% year-on-year to $12.73 billion, slightly exceeding market estimates of $12.67 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $3.34, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of $3.10. The gross margin improved to 83.5%, indicating good cost control and pricing power. Net profit margin: The net profit margin was 21.68%, showing that the company has strong profitability.

• Product Performance: The star weight loss drug Zepbound achieved sales of $2.31 billion, and the diabetes drug Mounjaro generated revenue of $3.84 billion, both performing strongly.

• Competitive Pressure: Competitors Novo Nordisk and Cigna have reached a cooperation agreement, which may divert market share from Eli Lilly.

• R&D and Investment: The company continues to make strategic investments in R&D and manufacturing, and is expected to obtain global phase III trial data for orforglipron by the end of 2025.

Future Stock Price Drivers

• New Drug Development: Eli Lilly plans to announce late-stage data for the next-generation weight loss drug reatrutide by the end of 2025. This drug mimics three different hunger-regulating hormones and is expected to further consolidate its position in the weight loss drug market.

• Market Potential: The diabetes and weight loss drug markets continue to grow, and Eli Lilly's products such as Mounjaro and Zepbound are expected to continue benefiting from this trend.

• R&D Investment: The company's continued investment in R&D and manufacturing will help drive future growth.

• Analyst Rating: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a target price of $975 for $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ , believing that its stock price fluctuations are disconnected from its fundamentals and may be undervalued in the short term.

2. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$

UNH is the stock code for UnitedHealth Group, a global leader in diversified healthcare, covering health insurance, medical services, and health management.

2025 Operational Highlights

• Financial Warning and Earnings Downgrade: In Q1 2025, revenue was $109.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, slightly below market expectations of $111.5 billion. In April 2025, UnitedHealth lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast from $29.50-30.00 to $26.00-26.50, mainly due to higher than expected medical costs for the Medicare Advantage business.

• Department of Justice Investigation: The company is facing an investigation by the Department of Justice regarding its Medicare Advantage billing policies, which adds uncertainty to the market.

• CEO Resignation: The sudden resignation of the company's CEO has raised concerns about the stability of the company's management.

• Market Confidence Shaken: Despite facing many challenges, analysts believe that the company's long-term value still exists, and the current stock price may have overreacted to short-term adverse factors.

Future Stock Price Drivers

• Valuation Advantage: The current price-to-earnings ratio is about 10.4 times, much lower than the company's long-term average valuation of 17.6 times, showing strong valuation appeal.

• Long-term Growth Potential: The company expects to resume double-digit EPS growth in 2025 and maintain a long-term growth target of 13%-16% for 2026.

• Business Diversification: UnitedHealth Group is in a leading position in Medicare Advantage, PBM (pharmacy benefit management), and comprehensive health management, with a large membership base and data advantages.

• Dividends and Buybacks: The company has increased dividends for 15 consecutive years and actively repurchased shares, showing a commitment to shareholder returns.

• Analyst Expectations: According to predictions from 25 analysts, $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 's 12-month average target price is $408.44, with the highest forecast price at $626 and the lowest at $308, with an upside potential of 33.01%.

3. $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$

Intuitive Surgical is a global leader in minimally invasive surgical technology and robotic-assisted surgical systems. Its flagship product, the da Vinci surgical system, is widely used in various minimally invasive surgeries, helping doctors improve surgical precision and patient recovery.

2025 Operational Highlights

• Strong Business Growth: In Q1 2025, Intuitive Surgical's revenue reached $2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.81, exceeding expectations of $1.74. This was mainly due to a significant increase in da Vinci surgical volume and system installations.

• da Vinci System Installation Growth: The company installed 367 da Vinci surgical systems, including 147 da Vinci V systems, a significant increase from 313 systems in the same period last year.

• International Business Expansion: The company's surgical volume in the international market increased by 24%, showing strong international demand.

• Product Innovation: The launch of the da Vinci V platform and Ion system further consolidates the company's leading position in the field of minimally invasive surgery.

Future Stock Price Drivers

• Surgical Volume Growth Expectations: The company expects global da Vinci surgical volume to grow by 15%-17% in 2025, despite facing external challenges such as tariffs.

• Product Innovation and Market Expansion: The continued promotion of the da Vinci V platform and Ion system, as well as the company's expansion in the international market, will bring new growth opportunities for the company.

• Financial Health and Valuation: Although the company's current price-to-earnings ratio is relatively high (73 times), its financial position is good, with a market capitalization of $171.29 billion.

• Adjusted Gross Margin Expectations: The company expects the adjusted gross margin for 2025 to be between 65% and 66.5%, although lower than 69.1% in 2024, it still shows strong profitability.

4. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$

HIMS is a company focused on men's health issues, providing products and services including treatments for hair loss and erectile dysfunction. Its online platform directly sells products to consumers, offering convenience and privacy advantages.

2025 Operational Highlights

In Q1 2025, HIMS's revenue reached $586 million, a year-on-year increase of 111%, exceeding expectations of $538.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $91 million, nearly triple that of the same period last year. Reported EPS was $0.20, below expectations of $0.23. Free cash flow reached $50 million. The number of subscribers approached 2.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%.

Strategic Cooperation and Product Expansion: HIMS reached a long-term cooperation with Novo Nordisk, aimed at improving the accessibility and affordability of obesity treatment. In addition, the company plans to launch new products for low testosterone and menopause support, and expand into longevity and preventive care areas.

Market Expansion: HIMS strengthened its long-term sustainability of the domestic supply chain by acquiring a peptide facility in California, USA, to meet the US market's demand for personalized medical and treatment options.

Future Stock Price Drivers

Continuous Growth of Subscriber Base: HIMS's subscriber base continues to grow, indicating that its market appeal and brand loyalty are continuously improving.

Launch of New Products and Services: The company plans to launch new products in the low testosterone and menopause support areas and expand into longevity and preventive care areas, which will bring new revenue sources for the company.

Strategic Cooperation and Market Expansion: Cooperation with Novo Nordisk and the acquisition of a peptide facility in California will help HIMS expand its market share and improve operational efficiency.

Improvement of Financial Indicators: Although EPS did not meet expectations, both revenue and adjusted EBITDA performed well, indicating that the company's profitability is improving.

Risks: Investors need to pay attention to the decline in gross margin and the increase in marketing expenses, which may affect future profitability.

5. $Tempus AI(TEM)$

Tempus AI is a medical technology company focused on promoting precision medicine development through artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analysis, especially in the field of oncology. The company integrates multi-field technologies such as generative AI, machine learning, genomics, and clinical data analysis to provide personalized diagnostic and treatment plans for complex diseases such as cancer.

2025 Operational Highlights

• Performance: In Q1 2025, Tempus AI's revenue increased by 75.4% year-on-year to $255.7 million, exceeding expectations. Although the loss per share was $0.24, it was better than expected.

• Business Growth: Genomic sequencing revenue increased by 89% year-on-year, and tumor detection increased by 31%. The company is developing the world's largest tumor foundation model and plans to migrate 40% of XT testing volume to FDA-certified versions.

• Gross Margin: The TTM gross margin is 57.09%. The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance and expects to achieve EBITDA profitability.

• Future Outlook: The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $1.25 billion, expecting a year-on-year increase of 80%, and expects to achieve EBITDA profitability in 2025.

Future Stock Price Drivers

• Precision Medicine Demand Growth: As the application of precision medicine and AI in the medical field continues to increase, Tempus AI's technology platform will benefit from this trend.

• New Products and Services: The company is developing the world's largest tumor foundation model and plans to migrate more testing services to FDA-certified versions, which will help improve the company's market competitiveness.

• Increased Revenue Guidance: The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $1.25 billion, expecting a year-on-year increase of 80%, and expects to achieve EBITDA profitability in 2025.

• Analyst Rating: With the continuous development of precision medicine and AI technology, many analysts have upgraded Tempus AI's rating to a strong buy, with a target price range of $62.50 to $74.00.

6. $Novavax(NVAX)$

NVAX (Novavax) is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing vaccines. It gained widespread attention during the COVID-19 pandemic for developing a COVID-19 vaccine. The company has a protein-based vaccine platform and Matrix-M adjuvant, which have good tolerance and cause fewer symptoms in recipients compared to mRNA vaccines.

2025 Operational Highlights

• Strong Financial Performance: In Q1 2025, NVAX's revenue reached $667 million, a significant increase compared to $94 million in the same period in 2024.

• Profit Growth: The company's net profit was $519 million, with earnings per share of $2.93, far exceeding expectations of $0.71.

• Cost Optimization: The company improved its financial performance by reducing R&D and sales and marketing costs.

• Cash Flow: As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had nearly $800 million in cash and receivables.

• Future Revenue Expectations: The company raised its full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to $975 million to $1.025 billion.

• Cooperation and Partnerships: Cooperation with Sanofi and Takeda is expected to bring additional milestone payments and royalties.

Future Stock Price Drivers

• Revenue Growth Expectations: The company raised its full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to $975 million to $1.025 billion.

• Cooperation and Partnerships: Cooperation with Sanofi and Takeda is expected to bring additional milestone payments and royalties.

• R&D Pipeline Advancement: The company is advancing multiple early-stage R&D projects, using artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize R&D.

• Cost Optimization: The company is undergoing cost reduction and restructuring, and expects R&D and sales and marketing expenses to drop to $250 million by 2027.

• Analyst Rating: Zacks gives NVAX a "hold" rating, expecting earnings per share of $1.46 in the next 12 months.

Summary

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ performed well in Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, mainly due to the continued adoption of its innovative minimally invasive surgery technology and products. However, the company also faces potential risks such as legal disputes and tariff impacts.

Although $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ and $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ faced stock price challenges in 2025, the strong performance of $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ and $Tempus AI(TEM)$ has injected new vitality into the online health services sector. With the continuous growth in global demand for remote medical services and service optimization brought by technological advancements, online medical service providers such as HIMS and TEM may continue to benefit from this trend.

When choosing investment targets, investors need to consider the company's fundamentals, event hotspots, financial performance, and drivers to make wise investment decisions.

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