To The Moon

Markets Rebound on Tariff Delay

• President Trump’s latest tariff threats against the EU were temporarily shelved, triggering a broad market rally :

  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +2.5%.

  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.0% and

  Dow Jones: +741 pts (+1.8%).

Corporate Bond Spreads Support Equities

• US corporate bond spreads over Treasuries remain tight.

  This reflects genuine but moderate optimism around economic growth and earnings.

  Historically, widening spreads signal distress earlier than equities, signal is bullish.

Data Highlights from Morning Briefing & Community Plus

Global Equities Outperform

• ACWX ETF (Rest of World stocks) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +3 standard deviations over 100 days.

• Drivers: local asset performance + FX gains

• Recommendation: Maintain 36% non-US equity index weight

Currency Momentum

• Broad USD weakness: Most major EM and DM currencies rallied vs. USD last week.

• Signal: Confidence in global growth and rate differentials narrowing.

Fed Funds Futures Shift

• Futures markets price in continued US expansion.

• Suggests belief in a “soft-ish landing” and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

China’s Manufacturing Pulse

• Air quality data from China’s 5 largest GDP-contributing cities:

  Drop in export-driven regions (e.g. Pearl River Delta).

  Stability in domestic consumption hubs.

• Read: No recession, just slow growth, especially in exports.

Consumer Sentiment Surge

• Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 98.0 in May, from 85.7 in April, largest MoM gain in 4 years.

Consumer

• Expectations Index rose by the most since 2011.

• Rebound coincided with easing tariff threats and broad market recovery.

• Gains were bipartisan, though strongest among Republicans.

Corporate & Innovation Headlines

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : Sundar Pichai says AI is in a “new platform phase”, now products must prove monetization.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ : Launching a gaming-focused app ahead of WWDC, countering Nintendo's Switch 2.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : +7% after Musk said he’s “super focused” on Tesla, X, and xAI, bullish sentiment ahead of key product launches.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : Suppliers ramp up production of “Blackwell” AI servers, resolving prior delays.

• Salesforce: Buying Informatica for $8B to bolster AI/cloud strategy.

Final Thought: Summer Lull? Not So Fast

• Despite the rebound, markets face structural and policy-driven uncertainty:

Tariffs, tax negotiations, and Fed policy are unresolved, while optimism is rising, volatility could return quickly.

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.