$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ $NANO Nuclear Energy Inc(NNE)$ ππ§²π MP Materials: Rebuilding Global Power One Rare Earth at a Time ππ§²π
As at 29 May 2025, π³πΏ NZST
MP Materials ($MP) is shaping up as one of the most geopolitically leveraged trades on my radar. What began as a routine technical bounce has evolved into a strategic re-rating thesis. Rare earths, once obscure, are now the backbone of national security, energy independence, and AI infrastructure, and $MP is uniquely positioned at the nexus.
Letβs break down the data, the narrative, and the roadmap forward!:
π Technical Setup: Compression Before Expansion
After peaking at $29.72, $MP retraced sharply and is now consolidating at $19.54. Price is compressing inside a broadening formation, where volatility increases and investor consensus evaporates, historically setting the stage for aggressive breakouts.
β’ 30-week MA: $21.87, acting as overhead resistance
β’ MACD: Bearish but flattening, signalling deceleration in downward momentum
β’ RSI (24-week): 47.94, midrange and reset
β’ Volume spike: +18% above average on 22 May, often a sign of accumulation
π§ Term reference:
β’ Broadening formation: Expanding highs/lows indicating volatility and positioning battles
β’ MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence, used to spot trend shifts
β’ RSI: Relative Strength Index, momentum oscillator (neutral at 50)
If $20.80 breaks on volume, I see a stair-step advance toward $23.40 and $25.00 πͺ
π° Options Flow: Institutional Footprints Are Clear!
On 28 May:
β’ 39,846 calls traded ~ 11x expected volume
β’ Implied volatility rose 5 pts to 75.59%
β’ Dominant positions on Jul25 $25 and Jan26 $40 calls
β’ Put/Call ratio = 0.03 ~ 97% call dominance
π Interpretation:
This is textbook pre-positioning for a catalyst. High-strike, long-dated calls are rarely retail. No meaningful put protection implies asymmetric upside exposure ~ often preceding earnings upgrades, M&A, or macro policy pivots.
π Geopolitics: A Rare Earth Revolution Begins
On 14 May, $MP signed a memorandum with Saudi Arabiaβs Maβaden to build an end-to-end rare earth supply chain, mining, refining, and magnet production, all hosted within the Gulf.
π Why it matters:
β’ Reduces reliance on Chinaβs 90% control of REE refining
β’ Enables U.S.βGulf critical material flows
β’ Supports surging demand from AI, EVs, and military applications
π Announced alongside:
β’ $600B in U.S.βSaudi investment deals
β’ Gulf ambitions to make mining the βthird economic pillarβ
MP is no longer a North American miner. Itβs becoming a sovereign-level supplier.
π‘ Analyst Valuation: Floor Is Set, Ceilingβs Unpriced
β’ Current: $19.54
β’ 12-mo avg π― target: $27.06 (+38.49%)
β’ High: $32.00
β’ Breakdown (12 analysts):
π’π’ Strong Buy: 33%
π’ Buy: 42%
π Hold: 25%
π΄ Sell: 0%
π Recent actions:
β’ Morgan Stanley: Hold, PT $23
β’ Deutsche Bank: Hold, PT $20
π§ My take:
These are conservative anchors based on commodity pricing, not geopolitics or forward options skew. I expect rerating if Saudi logistics and Gulf scaling updates come through in Q3.
π₯ Short Interest: Coiled and Crowded
β’ Short interest: 53.32M shares
β’ Short % of float: 29.60%
β’ Days to cover: 17.26
β’ Short ratio: 23.68
π¨ Why it matters: This is a primed squeeze setup. If MP triggers a volume breakout above $20.80, shorts could get forced out rapidly, fuelling price acceleration and gamma exposure from the options chain!
π§Ύ Fundamentals: Mispriced Resilience
Despite profitability weakness, $MP posted $52.1M in Q1 revenue, nearly flat YoY, a remarkable result given rare earth pricing pressure.
β Moat expansion:
β’ Only US-listed REE miner with end-to-end capabilities
β’ New Gulf access to logistics, capital, and foreign reserves
β’ Defence-related exposure adds non-cyclical upside
This isnβt a speculative junior, itβs a cash-flowing firm with national-level leverage!
π§ Forward Watchlist
Technical Levels to Watch π
β’ Support: $19.50, $18.40
β’ Resistance: $20.80 (breakout trigger), $23.40, $25.00 π
Catalysts (Ranked by Impact Potential)
1. U.S.βSaudi military-industrial alignment
β’ Justification: Institutional capital + sovereign trade flow β REE security
2. πΊπΈπ¨π³ U.S.βChina trade and export escalation
β’ Risk: Tariffs, restrictions, or REE bans β bullish for MP
3. AI hardware and EV demand surge
β’ Evidence: Nvidiaβs UAE expansion and Teslaβs motor magnet contracts
4. Gulf infrastructure investment in materials tech
β’ Includes: Taβadir project, DEWA tech corridor
5. Earnings o 7 August 2025
β’ Opportunity for guidance upgrade on Saudi ops and volume expansion
π§ Final Thesis: The Rare Earth Repricing Has Begun
MP is transforming from a cyclical commodity play into a strategic cornerstone. With institutional call flow, a rare geopolitical alliance, and record short interest, this is not a bounce, itβs a staged breakout from the old global supply model.
Everyone in π¨π³ China might have a robot in 5 years. If every American wants one too, itβs time to accelerate the rare earth magnet supply chain!
The Next Strategic U.S. Supply Chain Revival is Rare Earths & $MP
The U.S. is waking up to its vulnerability in critical materials. After energy independence via $LEU and nuclear, rare earth elements are next! There is only one serious player on πΊπΈ U.S. soil: MP Materials
Rare earths are the backbone of everything from EVs to defense systems, wind turbines to AI data centers. Without them, there is no decarbonization. No military readiness. No tech dominance.
π¨π³ China controls ~85% of global supply. That's a national security risk!
If $20.80 breaks with volume, I see a swift run to $27, with upside to $32+ if catalysts converge. The risk/reward is no longer speculative, itβs asymmetric.
π£ What would a world look like where rare earth supply is weaponised like oil once was? Because thatβs the world MP is now trading in!
π’ Donβt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ Iβm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letβs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC πππππ
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_Earnings @TigerPicks @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ π¨π§² 7-Day +39.8% Gain: $MP Rare Earths Stock Rockets on Morgan Stanley Upgrade π§²π¨
On 29 May 2025, I posted a full breakdown of $MP at $19.54, outlining the Saudi supply chain deal, elevated short interest, and hidden options flow. As of today, the stock has surged to $27.31, a +39.8% breakout in just seven trading days.
Now Morgan Stanley is following the move, upgrading to Overweight with a $34.00 price target, another +24.5% from current levels. Their reasoning?
βMP is the most vertically integrated rare earths company ex-China.βπ¨π³
That shift in language marks something bigger than just a price target. We are watching a global re-rating of rare earths in real time. What was once an overlooked miner is now a frontline player in the global AI, EV, and defense infrastructure race.
π This isn't a textbook breakout. It is a strategic repricing powered by supply chain realignment, sovereign capital, and momentum ignition. And it still has legs.
$MP is trading within a rising broadening wedge, a pattern known for its expanding volatility and wide price swings. Yesterday, price action showed strength as bulls recaptured the 50-day moving average with a strong marubozu candle, indicating persistent buying throughout the session. The MACD is widening away from its signal line, reflecting growing momentum, and the RSI has just crossed above the 50 level, a sign that bullish momentum may be gaining traction. While broadening wedges often carry the risk of sharp volatility moves in both directions, the current technical signals suggest bulls are firmly in control for now, driving price higher within this volatile structure. Traders should stay alert, as moves in this pattern can be swift and exaggerated in both directions.
Next big mover alert: Stay ahead of the curve before the rest of the market catches up.
π’ Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ I am obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let us outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade with precision and vision. Respectfully, BC πππππ
@Tiger_CashBoostAccount @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ π¨π§² 7-Day +39.8% Gain: $MP Rare Earths Stock Rockets on Morgan Stanley Upgrade π§²π¨
On 29 May 2025, I posted a full breakdown of $MP at $19.54, outlining the Saudi supply chain deal, elevated short interest, and hidden options flow. As of today, the stock has surged to $27.31, a +39.8% breakout in just seven trading days.
Now Morgan Stanley is following the move, upgrading to Overweight with a $34.00 price target, another +24.5% from current levels. Their reasoning?
βMP is the most vertically integrated rare earths company ex-China.βπ¨π³
That shift in language marks something bigger than just a price target. We are watching a global re-rating of rare earths in real time. What was once an overlooked miner is now a frontline player in the global AI, EV, and defense infrastructure race.
π This isn't a textbook breakout. It is a strategic repricing powered by supply chain realignment, sovereign capital, and momentum ignition. And it still has legs.
$MP is trading within a rising broadening wedge, a pattern known for its expanding volatility and wide price swings. Yesterday, price action showed strength as bulls recaptured the 50-day moving average with a strong marubozu candle, indicating persistent buying throughout the session. The MACD is widening away from its signal line, reflecting growing momentum, and the RSI has just crossed above the 50 level, a sign that bullish momentum may be gaining traction. While broadening wedges often carry the risk of sharp volatility moves in both directions, the current technical signals suggest bulls are firmly in control for now, driving price higher within this volatile structure. Traders should stay alert, as moves in this pattern can be swift and exaggerated in both directions.
Next big mover alert: Stay ahead of the curve before the rest of the market catches up.
π’ Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ I am obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let us outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade with precision and vision. Respectfully, BC πππππ
@Tiger_CashBoostAccount @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion
$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ π¨π§² 7-Day +39.8% Gain: $MP Rare Earths Stock Rockets on Morgan Stanley Upgrade π§²π¨
On 29 May 2025, I posted a full breakdown of $MP at $19.54, outlining the Saudi supply chain deal, elevated short interest, and hidden options flow. As of today, the stock has surged to $27.31, a +39.8% breakout in just seven trading days.
Now Morgan Stanley is following the move, upgrading to Overweight with a $34.00 price target, another +24.5% from current levels. Their reasoning?
βMP is the most vertically integrated rare earths company ex-China.βπ¨π³
That shift in language marks something bigger than just a price target. We are watching a global re-rating of rare earths in real time. What was once an overlooked miner is now a frontline player in the global AI, EV, and defense infrastructure race.
π This isn't a textbook breakout. It is a strategic repricing powered by supply chain realignment, sovereign capital, and momentum ignition. And it still has legs.
$MP is trading within a rising broadening wedge, a pattern known for its expanding volatility and wide price swings. Yesterday, price action showed strength as bulls recaptured the 50-day moving average with a strong marubozu candle, indicating persistent buying throughout the session. The MACD is widening away from its signal line, reflecting growing momentum, and the RSI has just crossed above the 50 level, a sign that bullish momentum may be gaining traction. While broadening wedges often carry the risk of sharp volatility moves in both directions, the current technical signals suggest bulls are firmly in control for now, driving price higher within this volatile structure. Traders should stay alert, as moves in this pattern can be swift and exaggerated in both directions.
Next big mover alert: Stay ahead of the curve before the rest of the market catches up.
π’ Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ I am obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let us outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade with precision and vision. Respectfully, BC πππππ
@Tiger_CashBoostAccount @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion
An interesting read - not rare for you though BC π€ Excellent!
Looks like a great set up brewing BC! ππππ
A great read BC
Great article, would you like to share it?
Great article, would you like to share it?