To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

The stock market is no stranger to drama, but the clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has taken Tesla’s volatility to new heights. Musk’s bold claim that he was pivotal to Trump’s 2024 election victory provoked a fiery response: Trump threatened to cut Tesla’s government subsidies, a move that could hit the EV giant where it hurts. With Tesla’s stock at $285—down 33% from its post-election peak of $436.23—investors are asking: Will it crash back to pre-election levels of $220-$222? Is this a golden opportunity to buy the dip, or a signal to exit? And what does this mean for Tesla’s future? Let’s dive into the chaos and chart the path ahead.

The Musk-Trump Fallout: A High-Stakes Showdown

The rift between Musk and Trump is more than just a war of words—it’s a direct threat to Tesla’s bottom line. Musk, once a key Trump ally and adviser through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has publicly criticized the president, claiming Trump wouldn’t have won without his support . This feud has already cost Tesla $150 billion in market value, with the stock sliding from its December high.

The fallout isn’t just political. Musk’s role in Trump’s administration has sparked protests and vandalism at Tesla showrooms worldwide, hurting the brand’s image . Investors are rattled, with some questioning whether Musk’s political entanglements are worth the cost to Tesla’s reputation and sales.

Tesla’s Stock: A Rollercoaster Ride

Tesla’s stock has been a wild ride in 2025. Before the 2024 election, it traded around $220-$222 . But the good times didn’t last. By June, the stock has fallen to $285, down 38% year-to-date, driven by a mix of factors:

• Sales Slump: Tesla’s sales are declining in key markets. China saw a 15% year-over-year drop in May, part of an eight-month slide, while Europe and the U.S. also reported weaker numbers .

• Tariff Troubles: Trump’s tariffs, including a 25% tax on imported vehicles, have raised costs for Tesla, which relies on 25% of its Model Y components from abroad .

• Earnings Woes: Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings plummeted 71%, hit by brand damage and tariff costs .

• Brand Backlash: Musk’s political stances have alienated some customers, with protests and vandalism signaling a growing PR crisis .

Could the stock fall back to $220? It’s a real possibility. A 23% drop from $285 is within reach if Trump follows through on subsidy cuts or if sales continue to slide. Technical analysis suggests support around $215, with further downside to $165 if momentum stays bearish . However, Tesla’s history of defying gravity—coupled with potential catalysts like the Robotaxi launch—could cap losses.

Robotaxi: A Potential Game-Changer

Tesla’s Robotaxi launch on June 12 in Austin, Texas, is a high-stakes bet to shift the narrative. The pilot starts small with 10 vehicles but aims to scale to 1,000, with public access by late June or July . If successful, it could validate Tesla’s Full Self-Driving tech and open a new revenue stream, potentially pushing the stock toward $350 or higher. But risks loom:

• Tech Hurdles: The service relies on teleoperation, not full autonomy, raising doubts about scalability.

• Regulatory Scrutiny: The NHTSA is probing Tesla’s FSD tech after a fatal crash, which could delay expansion.

• Competition: Waymo’s 250,000 weekly rides set a high bar, and Tesla’s camera-based approach must prove itself.

A flawless launch could spark a rally; a glitchy debut could deepen the sell-off.

Buy the Dip or Bail Out?

At $285, Tesla’s stock is a high-risk, high-reward play:

• Buy Case: The Robotaxi launch could be a catalyst, and Musk’s refocus on Tesla might steady the ship. Tesla’s cash reserves and EV leadership provide a buffer. If trade tensions ease or sales rebound, $285 could be a steal, with analysts like Wedbush targeting $400 .

• Sell Case: Subsidy cuts, declining sales, and brand damage are real threats. Tesla’s P/E ratio remains lofty, and competition from BYD and Nio is intensifying. UBS predicts a 5% delivery drop in 2025, which could push the stock below $250 .

• Hold Case: With Robotaxi days away, waiting for clarity is prudent. A strong launch could lift the stock; a flop could send it toward $220 or lower.

Risk-tolerant investors might nibble at $285 with a tight stop-loss, but cautious players should wait for the June 12 outcome.

The Musk-Trump Drama: Focus on the Business

The Musk-Trump feud is a sideshow—its impact on Tesla’s operations matters more. Musk’s political missteps have hurt the brand, but his vision for Robotaxi and AI keeps Tesla in the game. Trump’s subsidy threats are serious, but his history of backing down (like pausing tariffs after Musk’s pushback) suggests room for negotiation . Investors should focus on Tesla’s fundamentals—sales, margins, and tech progress—rather than the drama.

Table: Tesla Stock Performance Snapshot

The Verdict

Tesla’s stock at $285 is a high-stakes bet. The Musk-Trump clash and subsidy threats could push it back to pre-election levels of $220-$222, especially if sales keep sliding. But the Robotaxi launch offers hope—if it delivers, Tesla could rebound. Buying the dip is tempting for risk-takers, but waiting for clarity post-June 12 is safer. Keep your eyes on the fundamentals, not the headlines. This rollercoaster’s far from over.

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