To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$  $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 🤖💥 NVIDIA’s AI Ascendancy: Decoding the Path Beyond $150 💥🤖🚀

NVIDIA ($NVDA) has reclaimed its position atop the global market cap hierarchy, now valued at $3.47 trillion, edging out Microsoft in a testament to its pivotal role in the AI-driven future. Trading at $143.27, it sits a mere 6.4 percent below its all-time high of $153.13. As I peer through the lens of data and price action, I see not just a stock, but a transformative force. The question isn’t whether NVIDIA will climb higher, it’s how swiftly and sustainably it will do so. Here’s my deep dive into its technical structure, institutional sentiment, macro tailwinds, and stacked catalysts.

📊 Technical Analysis: Precision in Motion

On the one-day timeframe, NVIDIA executed a textbook breakout. After consolidating between $141.50 and $142.00 in a tight range, price surged through $142.03 with a 91 million share volume day, including a 1.32 million spike in a single burst. That’s institutional conviction, not speculative drift.

The breakout formed a textbook bull flag. A clean setup powered by:

   •   KDJ at 1.68 percent confirms it’s far from overbought with ample room to run

   •   MACD has a wide bullish crossover with expanding histogram bars

   •   VWAP is locked at $142.50, and buyers have maintained control above this key zone

   •   RSI rebounded from oversold and is now trending upward across intraday frames

   •   Fibonacci breakout from $142.03 with price clearing $143.16 and targeting $144.17 to $145.49 next

On the 15-minute chart, price has already climbed into the 0.0 percent to 38.2 percent retracement zone, with rejection wicks around $144.50. This signals that short-term exhaustion is possible if buyers don’t follow through with volume. On the weekly chart, NVDA remains firmly above MA5 at $132.11 and MA10 at $119.28, and has now locked in its base above $140.19. That clears the path to test:

$146.56 (50 percent Fibonacci),

$147.63 (61.8 percent),

$151.09 (Fib 1.0),

and the 52-week high of $153.13.

🧠 Options Flow and Sentiment: Bullish with Brains

Institutions aren’t just buying shares, they’re strategically suppressing downside risk. A single sale of $4.5 million in $144 PUTs expiring in two weeks suggests confidence in NVDA staying above that level. The short interest picture supports it. Down from 262 million to 244 million shares, bears are backing away. Open interest surges in peer AI names like $TSLA, $MSTR, $RIOT and $NVDA confirm we’re in a sector-wide positioning wave.

🌐 Macro Momentum: AI Megatrend Confirmed

This isn’t just a breakout on the chart. It’s a breakout across the entire AI complex. On Friday:

   •   SoundHound AI and BigBear.ai surged over 4 percent

   •   Palantir, C3.ai, and Super Micro rallied over 3 percent

   •   Alphabet and ARM rose more than 2 percent

   •   NVIDIA advanced alongside, confirming sector-wide breadth

Broadcom’s earnings injected additional fuel. Despite a pullback in $AVGO, their AI revenue guidance, projected to grow 60 percent year-over-year, underscored how real the spend cycle is. J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur nailed it: “Broadcom’s results reflect sustained AI strength.” The read-through is clear. NVIDIA’s pipeline is just getting started.

With dovish Fed tones, falling 10-year yields, and broad tech inflows, macro conditions favour growth stock expansion. NVDA is the prime beneficiary.

🔬 Catalysts: The Empire Beneath the Chip

1. Boltz-2 and Recursion

This next-gen biomolecular foundation model, trained and validated on NVIDIA supercomputers, puts $NVDA squarely in the biotech infrastructure race. $RXRX, which launched the model, is a 5.6 percent holding in ARK’s $ARKG fund. This isn’t just hardware dominance. It’s NVIDIA providing the compute for trillion-dollar medical breakthroughs.

2. META Insider Commentary: GPU vs ASIC

A current META AI engineer explained that even as ASICs offer 3 to 4 times cost optimisation, they lack flexibility. He confirmed:

   •   60 to 75 percent of inference workloads will remain GPU-reliant through at least 2027

   •   ASICs can’t handle complex, multi-modal tasks across voice, text, and image

   •   META prefers to buy, not rent, NVIDIA GPUs. CoreWeave rentals are avoided due to data leakage risks

   •   Llama 4’s delay was caused by architecture complexity and quality control issues, showing deep dependence on NVIDIA’s infrastructure

3. Blackwell Supply Ramp and TSMC Partnership

Announced December 18, 2024, NVIDIA’s collaboration with TSMC to scale Blackwell GPU output addressed the only real near-term bottleneck, supply. The result was a 10 percent premarket spike. This signalled both execution capacity and market faith.

🎯 Forward-Looking Levels and Watchlist

Support zones

$142.03: breakout anchor

$139.80: minor demand shelf

$137.60: major structural support

Resistance levels

$144.17 (23.6 percent Fib)

$145.49 (38.2 percent)

$146.56 (50 percent)

$147.63 (61.8 percent)

$151.09 (Fib 1.0)

$153.13 (52-week high)

Catalysts to monitor

   •   Earnings in late August 2025

   •   Updates on Blackwell GPU production

   •   AI contract wins from governments or hyperscalers

   •   Fed commentary on rates and inflation

📌 Valuation Checkpoint

   •   P/E (TTM): 45.81

   •   Forward P/E: 33.00

   •   EPS (FWD): 4.30

   •   ROE: 115.46 percent

   •   Net margin: above 50 percent

   •   Revenue growth: 69 percent year-over-year

   •   Cash-to-debt ratio: 5 to 1 ($53.7 billion in cash, $10.3 billion debt)

These aren’t speculative metrics. This is fortress-grade growth and capital allocation.

🧭 My Trade Playbook

Entry: Buy above $144.20 on confirmation

Stop: Below $142.03

Targets: $146.56, $151.09, $153.13

Dip buys: $139.80 and $137.60

Position: Long only. No shorts while the bull flag is intact

Momentum, macro, and flow are aligned. The trade is high conviction.

💬 Conclusion: The Smartest Seat on the AI Rocket

At $143.27, NVIDIA isn’t late. It’s leveraged. CUDA is the AI operating system. Recursion puts NVIDIA inside biotech’s next revolution. META confirms GPU dominance across inference tasks. And Blackwell’s ramp-up ensures supply matches institutional hunger.

NVIDIA is no longer just a semiconductor firm. It is the computational layer of medicine, defence, intelligence, and automation. This is not just a trade. It’s a long-term position in the infrastructure of the future.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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