To The Moon

Apple stock is down 18% year-to-date. The narrative has grown stale. iPhone sales are slowing, China demand is softening, and AI headlines are dominated by Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI—not Cupertino. Meanwhile, competitors are launching foldables, AI-first devices, and flashy experiments. Apple? Still secretive, still quiet.

And yet, that silence might just be the opportunity.

With WWDC 2025 on deck, the world is about to see what Apple’s been building behind the curtain. The question for investors is simple: is this the turning point for a comeback—or the beginning of a longer winter?

Let’s break down what’s happening, what’s expected at WWDC, and whether now is the time to get ahead of a potentially massive shift in Apple’s story.

The Setup: A Rare Opportunity in Apple?

Apple doesn’t often trade at a discount. For much of the last five years, it was priced for perfection. A stable cash cow with a cult-like user base, high-margin services, and unmatched hardware execution.

But in 2025, sentiment has soured.

iPhone growth is maturing, especially in China, where local brands are gaining ground and geopolitical friction weighs on demand.

AI buzz is passing Apple by. Despite having world-class chips and software integration, Apple hasn’t yet joined the AI arms race publicly.

Valuation compression has set in. From a peak of over 30x earnings, Apple has drifted closer to 24–25x, reflecting more modest growth expectations.

The result? A stock down 18% YTD, underperforming both the S&P 500 and its Big Tech peers. For many traders, it has simply fallen off the radar.

But that may be exactly why it deserves fresh attention now.

WWDC 2025: The Reawakening of the Apple Narrative?

Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is usually focused on software—iOS updates, macOS improvements, and developer tools. But this year is different.

Apple needs a story shift. And the pieces are falling into place.

1. Apple AI: A Long-Awaited Reveal

This could be the year Apple finally unveils its consumer-focused AI strategy. Unlike Microsoft and Google, Apple doesn’t race to ship half-baked features. But behind the scenes, it has been laying the groundwork for years:

Apple Silicon (M-series and A-series chips) already has on-device AI acceleration.

Apple’s private AI infrastructure is said to prioritize privacy, battery efficiency, and offline capability—aligning with its brand values.

Rumors suggest Apple has been working on “Apple GPT” internally, optimized for native apps like Siri, Messages, Photos, and Health.

If WWDC introduces a reimagined Siri 2.0 or a suite of AI-powered native features, it could reframe Apple as a serious player in the AI revolution—just as the market is desperate for an “AI for consumers” narrative.

2. Hardware Hints: Vision Pro 2, AI iPads, or More?

WWDC isn’t usually a hardware-heavy event, but this year might include updates to Vision Pro, Apple’s mixed reality headset. While the first-gen model had limited commercial impact, a lighter, cheaper Vision Pro 2 could open the door to broader adoption.

Additionally, AI-enhanced versions of the iPad Pro or MacBook Pro, equipped with upgraded M4 chips, may showcase how Apple envisions AI integration—subtle, user-friendly, and deeply embedded.

In typical Apple fashion, they may not use the term “AI” at all. But the underlying tech—intelligent autofill, smart photo sorting, language tools, predictive typing—will be unmistakable.

3. Services Supercharged

Apple’s services business—spanning iCloud, Apple TV+, Music, Fitness+, and App Store—is expected to cross $100 billion in annual revenue soon. If AI-enhanced services can drive engagement, personalization, and new revenue streams (e.g., generative AI music or video tools), this could be a quiet earnings engine.

Apple could also use WWDC to announce developer tools for AI integration, enabling third-party apps to plug into Apple’s on-device LLMs. This would spark a new ecosystem effect—similar to how the App Store scaled iPhone's reach in 2008.

Sentiment Is Low, Expectations Are Manageable

The most bullish setups in trading come not when a stock is hot—but when it’s overlooked, undervalued, and on the cusp of a narrative shift.

Apple today fits that profile.

Analysts are cautious.

Retail attention is elsewhere (hello, Nvidia).

Institutional flows are rotating toward higher-beta names.

But that creates an opening. WWDC may not ignite an overnight rally, but if Apple shows compelling progress in AI, developers respond positively, and investors reprice the growth potential, the rebound could be swift—and strong.

Remember: Apple doesn’t need hype. It needs trust. And trust returns when execution meets timing.

Risk Factors: Why You Might Wait

Of course, nothing is guaranteed. Some valid risks:

If WWDC underwhelms, the narrative of stagnation could deepen, and the -18% YTD may become -25%.

If Apple’s AI ambitions feel too late or too light, investors might see it as catching up, not leading.

Macro pressure on consumer hardware—especially in China—won’t go away overnight. Apple needs more than just a flashy keynote to turn around demand trends.

But these risks are now better reflected in the stock. With a healthier valuation, a strong balance sheet (over $160B in cash equivalents), and unmatched vertical integration, Apple remains one of the most fundamentally solid companies on the planet.

What it lacks today is momentum. That’s what WWDC might restore.

How to Play It: Tactical or Long-Term

If you're trading around WWDC, a few strategies make sense:

Event-driven trades: Short-term options trades targeting a move post-keynote, particularly if AI announcements exceed expectations.

Accumulation strategy: Gradual position building while Apple is out of favor, with a view toward re-rating in the second half of the year.

AI ecosystem pairs: Consider pairing Apple long exposure with a short on overextended AI stocks to balance sentiment extremes.

Long-term investors may see this pullback as a rare chance to buy Apple at a discount before the next growth leg materializes—driven not just by iPhones, but by AI, spatial computing, and intelligent services.

Conclusion: Don’t Count Out the Giant

Apple has had a slow start in 2025. It’s not winning headlines. It’s not the AI darling. But if history is any guide, this is when Apple does its best work: behind the scenes, preparing to redefine the conversation.

WWDC 2025 could be the pivot point.

With a stock down 18%, expectations low, and a potential AI reawakening on the table, this is a classic setup for contrarian investors and event-driven traders alike.

The story isn’t over. It may just be getting rebooted.