To The Moon

🚀 $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   pops 20 % ahead of GENIUS Act vote—could the “first stable-coin stock” turn into 2025's top IPO winner?

The Senate will soon vote on the GENIUS Act, the first bill to give clear U.S. rules for stable-coin issuers. If it passes, Circle (USDC's parent) jumps from a crypto-native firm to a regulated payments network—and that’s a game-changer.

Why the upside story is real

Regulatory blessing – Clear rules could pull more banks, fintech apps and merchants onto USDC rails.

Treasury-bill yield tailwind – USDC reserves already earn ≈ 5 % in short Treasuries; every extra US$10 B float ≈ US$500 M gross profit.

Visa scare shows the threat – Last Friday’s 5 % dip in $V on stable-coin headlines hints at how disruptive on-chain settlements could be.

Circle vs. Coinbase—who wins more? (list format)

Revenue engine

• Circle: Interest income on USDC reserves and merchant payment fees

• Coinbase: Trading commissions, staking, and subscription services

Regulatory overhang

• Circle: Likely reduced if GENIUS Act passes

• Coinbase: Ongoing SEC litigation keeps the cloud overhead

Growth levers

• Circle: Expanding USDC float, B2B payment APIs, cross-border treasury services

• Coinbase: Derivatives expansion, Layer-2 (Base) adoption, and international roll-outs

Cyclicality

• Circle: Earnings tied to cash balances—less volatile than crypto volumes

• Coinbase: Highly correlated with trading activity and crypto price swings

Trade ideas for different risk tastes

1. Long-only believers – Accumulate shares below US$140, target US$180 if GENIUS clears.

2. Options pop-play – Buy Jul 150 calls, sell Jul 180 calls to cap cost while keeping upside.

3. Pairs trade – Long Circle, short a slice of Visa or Mastercard to express “block-chain rails vs. legacy rails.”

Risks to watch

Bill fails or gets watered down → headline sell-off.

Fed rate cuts → lower reserve yield and margin compression.

Competitive pressure from PayPal USD or other regulated stable-coins.

My move: Holding a starter position bought at US$128; will double if the Senate vote passes and price holds above US$140 on strong volume.