Great traders don’t predict — they position around probability
Great traders don’t predict — they position around probability.
Every option chain already tells you the most likely move.
How? Look at the 0.25 Delta — it reflects the expected move with about a 75% chance that price stays inside that range.
expecting moved for today on $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was 6047
So instead of asking “Where will price go?”
I ask: “What’s the most probable zone it can go to or it stays in?”
That shift changes everything:
•✅ Less stress, more structure
•✅ Trades based on edge, not emotion
•✅ Confidence in risk, not hope in reward
Trading is a game of odds, not outcomes.
Use Delta. Use expected move.
Trade like a risk manager, not a fortune teller.
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