To The Moon

US Stock Market

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.8% to 5982 on Tuesday ET. The benchmark index has been in a tight trading range between a closing level of 5976 and 6045 for the past 8 sessions. 

There is resistance at the mid-February all-time high of 6147 and support at the recent low of 5800. 88 of the 500 rose led by Jabil that jumped 9% to a record high after the circuit board maker's results topped estimates and it lifted its forward outlook. 

$Verve Therapeutics(VERV)$ shares surged after $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ announced that it would acquire the gene-editing startup for about $1.3 billion. $Oracle(ORCL)$ is up more than 17% in the past week after its upbeat Q4 result.

Shares of solar companies $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ and $First Solar(FSLR)$ led S&P 500 decliners falling 24% and 18%, respectively after the US Senate maintained the full removal of clean-energy tax credits in the budget bill.

In the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ only 13 stocks closed higher with $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ and $Datadog(DDOG)$ up more than 2.4%.  $Adobe(ADBE)$ , $T-Mobile US(TMUS)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell approximately 4%.

Other Indicators

Apart from the Indexes two key options related indicators of general market sentiment are the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and the Put/Call ratio. 

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , short for the CBOE Volatility Index, is often referred to as the “fear gauge” of the stock market. The VIX measures the market's expectations of volatility over the next 30 days.  It’s based on the prices of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ options (specifically near-term puts and calls). 

A higher VIX suggests traders expect more volatility; a lower VIX implies expectations of stability.  Think of it as a real-time sentiment indicator for how nervous or calm investors are. 

The VIX closed at 21.60 on Tuesday and was below 17 last Wednesday having peaked above 60 in early April as the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ’s volatility diminishes as the market continues to recover from Liberation Day. 

The equity-only put/call ratio is a widely used sentiment indicator that measures investor behaviour in the stock market, specifically through options trading. 

The equity only put/call ratio is calculated as the volume of equity put options divided by the volume of equity put options.  It excludes index options, focusing only on single-stock options (hence, “equity-only”). 

This version is preferred by many traders because it reflects retail and speculative sentiment more directly than index-based ratios, which are often used by institutions for hedging. 

Think of it as measuring how many people are betting on stocks to fall (puts) versus rise (calls). It’s a contrarian indicator, meaning it reflects extreme sentiment that often signals potential turning points in the market. 

On June 17, 2025, the equity-only put/call ratio was 0.61.  This means that there are about 61 puts for every 100 calls on single-stock options. 

This level is just over the long-term average (~0.6), indicating a moderate-to-strong bearish sentiment among equity option traders. 

This could be interpreted to signal a degree of complacency, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback. 

If the ratio drops further (e.g. ~0.45–0.50), it could suggest overheated bullishness and potential market vulnerability.

Time will tell but keep an eye on these two options indictors as a gauge of bullish complacency or bearish fear.

Implied Volatility of the BATMMAAN stocks

In terms of what the options are telling us, the at-the-money 31-day options implied volatility on the BATMMAAN stocks are:

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    Implied volatility is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset (like a stock, ETF, or index) to move over a given period (1 year). So, if you are considering buying a particular stock, look at its implied volatility to ascertain the market’s perceived risk of the stock’s price movement – clearly the expectation is many more ups and downs to come for Musk’s automotive and clean energy company, at least.

ENDS

About Greg Boland

Greg Boland is the Chief Strategy Officer for Tiger Brokers. His more than 35 years of specialist experience in capital markets include exchange management, investment advisory management, surveillance and risk and compliance, operations, and governance, and he is an authority in trading systems and methodologies (including online), exchange-traded equities and derivatives, equity options, index futures and options, and financial futures.

About Tiger Brokers in Australia

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ founded in 2014, is a leading online brokerage firm with a focus on redefining global investing with technology for the next generation. Our unwavering mission of helping everyday Aussies, from beginners to experts, take full control of their investing journey and bringing our local knowledge and industry-leading share-trading platform to every investor.  Currently, Tiger Brokers serves over 10 million users and more than 2 million account holders worldwide on our flagship platform Tiger Trade, with 69 licenses and qualifications in different markets. In 2019, the company was listed on Nasdaq as UP Fintech Holding Limited under the ticker TIGR.