To The Moon

🛢️ Geopolitics Meets Wall Street: Do US Airstrikes Equal Market Gains?

📈 US vs. Israeli Stocks – What's the Smart Move Now?

On 21 June, U.S. forces reportedly executed precision airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. These actions were aimed at delaying Iran's nuclear capabilities and signalling deterrence. Yet, equity markets remained unusually calm the following Monday. Why?

💡 What's Driving Market Resilience?

1. Geopolitical risk is now priced in. Markets have become increasingly desensitised to military actions unless they directly threaten supply chains or critical energy flows.

2. Energy markets stayed stable. Brent and WTI futures saw muted reactions — oil at ~$73 suggests no imminent supply shock.

3. Flight to safety offset by risk-on flows. While some capital rotated into defence and energy, broader indices held due to optimism around tech earnings and Fed dovishness.

🔍 Sector Watch: Who Stands to Gain?

US Defence Contractors (e.g. Lockheed, Northrop): Historically benefit from heightened military activity.

Israeli Tech & Defence: Geopolitical tensions often boost state-backed cyber and surveillance firms.

Oil & Energy: $Occidental(OXY)$   (Occidental Petroleum) saw a modest bump. But without a spike in crude, oil equities may lag unless Middle East supply chains get disrupted.

📉 Market Disconnect or Healthy Absorption?

Despite the strikes, VIX remains low and S&P futures are steady. This raises important questions:

Are markets confident that escalation is limited?

Or are we simply delaying an inevitable repricing of geopolitical risk?

🧭 Investment Angle:

Short-term: Traders may look for tactical entries in defence or energy.

Medium-term: Monitor Iran’s response. A proxy escalation (e.g. in the Strait of Hormuz) could change the oil calculus rapidly.

Long-term: Stay diversified. Geopolitical “surprises” have asymmetric downside.