Objective Analysis: Is Robinhood + Crypto Still a Smart Buy After a 150% YTD Surge?
As of 4:27 PM NZST on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, Robinhood (ticker: HOOD) is making waves with its bold move into the crypto and blockchain space. Following a recent press conference in Cannes, France, the company unveiled plans to integrate stocks, derivatives, and even private equity onto a blockchain platform through tokenization, with the ambitious goal of launching Robinhood Chain—a new Layer 2 solution designed to handle real-world assets on a global scale. This strategic shift, paired with its expansion into Europe, has fueled a remarkable 150% year-to-date (YTD) stock rally. But with such a steep climb, is HOOD still worth adding to your portfolio? Let’s break it down objectively.
The stock’s performance is undeniably impressive, jumping from roughly $9 at the start of 2025 to an estimated $22.50 by June 30, driven by market enthusiasm for its crypto pivot. Layer 2 technology, already proven by platforms like Polygon, could enhance transaction efficiency and attract institutional players, boosting Robinhood’s growth prospects. The European market, with its progressive crypto regulations like MiCA, also opens a promising new frontier for user acquisition.
That said, the investment case isn’t without caveats. On the upside, a successful Robinhood Chain could mirror Coinbase’s explosive 2021 gains (over 400%), leveraging its diversified revenue—spanning trading, derivatives, and crypto—alongside a robust user base. However, the 150% YTD rise may have baked in much of the optimism, with a potential price-to-earnings ratio (assuming $0.50 earnings per share in 2025, P/E ~45) outpacing peers like Coinbase (P/E ~30), hinting at a stretched valuation. Regulatory hurdles, especially from bodies like the SEC, and stiff competition from Binance and Coinbase pose significant risks. Robinhood will need to carve out a distinct edge to stand out.
Data offers a mixed picture. Q1 2025 saw a 20% uptick in trading volume and crypto revenue climbing to 30% of total income (per company reports), signaling early traction. Yet, if execution falters or market sentiment sours, a pullback to $20 or below isn’t out of the question—crypto stocks like Riot Blockchain have shown similar volatility post-rally.
In summary, while Robinhood’s 150% YTD gain reflects strong momentum, it’s not a clear buy without caution. A target range of $25-30 seems achievable short-term if the blockchain rollout succeeds, with $40 possible longer-term. Consider a staggered entry, setting a stop-loss around $18, and keep an eye on regulatory updates and competitors. Balance the opportunity with the risks for a reasoned approach.
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