To The Moon

📅 First Trade of H2: I Bought $QQQ on the July Momentum Signal

🧭 Historical Seasonality Setup

The first trading day of July often comes with a built-in tailwind. According to Dow Jones Market Data, July has been positive for the S&P 500 in 45 out of the past 73 years, with an average gain of +1.3%. What's more, the first few sessions of the month tend to show momentum carryover, especially in years when Q2 closes near or at all-time highs—as it did in 2025. That context shaped how I approached this week’s open: with a measured but opportunistic mindset.

🛒 What I Traded & Why

I opened a long trade in $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , taking a swing position to ride what I view as a high-probability seasonal setup. Here's my rationale:

The Nasdaq-100 remains the heartbeat of AI and tech optimism, with $QQQ consistently outperforming during the summer months when volatility tends to drop and earnings anticipation builds.

Big tech earnings kick off in a few weeks, and forward guidance could fuel another leg higher if macro data remains stable.

Institutional sentiment appears to remain risk-on—QQQ inflows were positive into quarter-end.

I bought with a tight stop under 545 and a short-term target around 570, looking to capture the July tailwind without overexposing capital in case of macro disappointment. This is a tactical trade, not a core holding adjustment.

📊 Secondary Watchlist & Macro Lens

While $QQQ is my core trade for this early stretch, Im watching a few other names that align with both sector momentum and tactical positioning:

$AAPL: Holding firm post-WWDC and setting up for a Q3 catalyst window with more AI integrations expected. Apple often trades quietly before earnings—but when it moves, it tends to trend.

$TSLA: The Q2 delivery miss (-13.5% YoY) wasn’t as bad as feared, and the stock rebounded. If sentiment improves and macro stabilizes, $TSLA may have upside room into earnings.

$XLF: Financials are showing signs of life. With the yield curve starting to flatten and credit spreads narrowing, this sector could benefit in Q3, especially if soft-landing hopes persist.

I'm also watching U.S. CPI and job numbers due later this month. These will shape the Fed’s tone into Jackson Hole and the broader Q3 macro thesis. A hot CPI could cool risk appetite, while inline or soft prints might add fuel to July’s bullish fire.

🧠 Positioning for July & Q3

My current approach is a barbell strategy: leaning into growth ($QQQ, $AAPL) on one side, and selectively adding exposure to cyclicals and value ($XLF, $DIS) on the other. Here’s how I'm thinking about the next few weeks:

Growth Tech: Continue to outperform as long as inflation remains contained and earnings hold up.

Cyclicals: May play catch-up if macro improves—$DIS and $NFLX, for example, could benefit from re-rating on better streaming or travel trends.

Risk Control: I'm not loading up. This is tactical positioning, with capital deployed incrementally and exits planned in advance. The goal is to participate, not overcommit.

If momentum carries, we could see a grind higher into late July earnings. But if macro data turns sour or Fed expectations shift abruptly, I’ll reassess fast and consider shifting to more defensive ETFs or cash.

📣 Conclusion + CTA

🚀 First day of H2 is in the books, and I’ve started July with a $QQQ swing backed by seasonality and momentum. Are you positioning for a breakout, a fade, or rotation? 

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