To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚨📰🗞️🚨📊🔥Fiscal Firepower: Big Bill Breakout Drives $SPX to Euphoric Highs🔥📊🚨

📰🗞️🚨 BREAKING NEWS: Trump's 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' will pass in the House, sending the historic legislation to the President's desk

04Jul25 NZST 🇳🇿

The US market just delivered its third record high this week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all closing at fresh peaks! Momentum breadth is widening, options flows are clustering, and sentiment is pushing toward euphoria. While many see a smooth rally, I see a confluence of structural positioning, cycle symmetry, and macro mispricing that calls for calculated aggression, and well-timed caution.

Here’s how I’m playing it.

🔥 Gamma Gravity at $6,280

$SPX closed at $6,279.35, landing exactly at the Gamma Maximum Value Capture zone. That’s no coincidence. $6,280 held the largest net gamma build, with delta and vanna stacked, magnetising price as dealers hedged aggressively.

Options volume hit 436K with −$410M in net premium, a sign of smart-money hedging under euphoria. I flagged outsized put flow on 19 Dec $6,300 contracts: subtle positioning for late-year volatility, even as spot pushes higher. VIX compressed to 12, further confirming dealer control and suppressed realised vol.

📐 Thirty-Three Day Rhythm Reappears

This bull leg just marked its 33rd trading day, matching the 33-session downtrend from Feb–Apr and the 33-bar base from Apr–May. My cycle model pegs 14Jul25 as the next inflection point.

Will it be a local top or a stealth low? I’m positioning for either: tightening stops, watching VIX structure, and eyeing Dec $6,000 puts and UVIX exposure for asymmetric entries, not deployed yet but on my radar if conditions shift.

📊 Breadth Breakout: The Rally Widens

A total of 20+ stocks hit fresh all-time highs during the session, including:

$NVDA, $JPM, $ORCL, $GS, $TSM, $AXP, $CRWD, $MS, $WFC, $RCL, $BK, $CDNS, $CLS, $COF, $ERJ, $EMR, $KLAC, $NDAQ, $SHAK, and $VIK.

This isn’t narrow leadership, it’s cyclical confirmation. Hedge fund data from Goldman Sachs showed the fastest rotation into cyclicals since Feb ’21. Industrials saw $5B of net inflow, Financials $4B, while Tech and Healthcare saw net outflows of $2B each.

Capital is flowing into “real economy” exposure, not just a sector chase but a structural bet on fiscal reacceleration.

📈 Macro Pulse: Jobs Beat, BTC Sits It Out, and Cuts Get Repriced

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index just printed 78, the highest reading since Mar24. This marks the first return to Extreme Greed territory in 2025. My alternate index confirmed a 77 print, up from 56 one month ago and 48 last year.

The US added 147K jobs in June, beating forecasts, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Trump publicly celebrated the print, calling it a “resurgence of real American strength.” Stocks responded with a broad-based rally of roughly +0.8%, while Bitcoin held steady near $109K, notably sitting this one out.

However, that could change. New digital asset legislation introduced by Sen. Cynthia Lummis would exempt small BTC transactions from capital gains tax, reduce compliance burdens, and offer a clearer path forward for crypto adoption. If passed, it’s a policy win that could reawaken participation and fuel the next leg for digital assets.

Bond traders quickly unwound July rate-cut bets. September odds slipped from 70% to near 50%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.20%, as the Fed remains pinned between solid labour strength and a still-sticky 3.5% core CPI.

I’m treating this as a recalibration moment: not bearish, but a signal that volatility may soon return.

🏛️ Policy Catalyst: Big Beautiful Bill Passes, Rotation Validated

🚨 The House has just officially passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, a sweeping package of corporate tax cuts, energy deregulation, defence outlays, and capital market reform. The narrative that funds were front-running this move is now confirmed.

This is why I’ve been tracking capital rotation into beneficiaries: $ORCL (defence cloud), $JPM and $GS (financials), $EMR (energy infrastructure), $RCL (discretionary). Goldman’s report on hedge funds rotating into cyclicals, now the fastest pace since Feb ’21, wasn’t early. It was spot on!

This passage gives real macro fuel to what was previously positioning-driven momentum. I expect more inflows to follow as allocators chase performance across “real economy” stocks.

🚗 Tesla Watch: New Targets, Same Gameplan

Goldman Sachs raised its $TSLA price target to $315 from $285, maintaining Neutral. I’m watching the $300 level as a technical pivot. Above $300, I’ll look to add for a move into $315 and $330.

🧭 What I’m Watching Next

• $6,280 gamma shelf: hold above and melt-up continues, lose it and hedging flow flips short

• 14Jul25 cycle date: looking for a reversal trigger via volume or internals

• CPI and Fed minutes next week: one hot print could reprice front-end curve again

• $JPM and $GS earnings: first major macro commentary from US corporates

🎯 Actionable Trades

• Long: Buy $SPY dips near $6,200 with stop $6,120, target $6,400

• $NVDA: Add on $1,180 retest, stop $1,150, target $1,250

• Rotation: Stay long $JPM above $215 and $RCL above $150, trailing stops daily

• Hedge watch: Eyeing Dec $SPX $6,000 puts around $50 and UVIX if volatility signals break out

🧠 Contrarian Insight: Calm Isn’t Cheap

With $SPX trading above 23x forward earnings and VIX at 12, I’m sharpening my edge. Historically, VIX in this range has preceded major volatility expansions, especially when paired with extreme sentiment.

I’m not fading the trend, I’m riding it with protection. That includes layered setups, strategic hedging, and tactical flexibility around key cycle pivots.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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