To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE TESLA DAILY TARGET ETF(TSLZ)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ 📉🚗🗳️ Musk’s New Party, Tesla’s Old Volatility: A 2025 Inflection Point for $TSLA 🗳️🚗📉

When the world’s richest man declares political war on the most powerful man in the U.S., traders don’t just watch; they hedge. Elon Musk’s formation of the “America Party” and his break from Trump over the controversial “big, beautiful” tax bill isn’t just political theatre. For Tesla investors, it’s a live-fire test of how narrative, capital, and political risk collide.

As of the latest post-market close, $TSLA sits at $312.70, down -0.84% on the day. But that barely scratches the surface of what’s brewing.

🧠 The Political Earthquake: Musk vs Trump

Musk’s comments weren’t subtle: “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it! When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste and graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.”

He’s attacking Trump’s $2.5T tax-and-spend bill as a threat to U.S. solvency. His response? Founding a third party, pledging to fund campaigns to unseat sitting lawmakers, and planting the flag for a 2028 presidential run. “Make America Efficient Again” isn’t a meme; it’s a mission.

Trump retaliated with threats to cut off Tesla’s billions in subsidies. The GOP is rattled, and markets are responding.

📍 HOW ELON COULD BREAK THE TWO-PARTY STRANGLEHOLD

Musk isn’t chasing a full presidential run out of the gate. His strategy: target 2–3 Senate races and 8–10 House districts where the margin for victory is razor-thin. Forget the national stage; he’s aiming to fracture power at the tipping point.

He’s already polling millions, has an existing PAC structure, and can crowdsource signatures faster than any candidate in history. Launching a third party is typically a bureaucratic labyrinth: FEC registration, ballot access in 50 states, candidate infrastructure. But Musk is attacking it like a startup.

If he pulls this off, we’re not just watching a political detour; we’re witnessing a potential end to the two-party lock.

🧾 AMERICA PARTY: PLATFORM AND POLICIES

The “America Party” is designed to cut through ideological extremes. Key principles:

• Slash debt, implement responsible fiscal controls

• Modernise defence through AI and robotics

• Accelerate AI leadership globally

• Cut bureaucratic regulations, especially in energy

• Champion free speech

• Support pro-natalism to combat population decline

This is centrist-libertarian tech populism, designed to attract independents, disillusioned Democrats, and anti-Trump Republicans. The implications for regulatory policy, especially around AI and energy, will be massive.

📊 Chart Breakdown: Tesla’s Momentum Is at a Crossroads

From a technical standpoint, Tesla’s chart reflects political turbulence. The strong bullish structure from May is fraying. On the BlackBox chart, momentum bars now cluster around two key pivots:

   •   $283.30: Breakdown zone. A close below invites further unwinding

   •   $328.20: Reversal trigger. A breakout above this level recaptures momentum

The last reversal candle (25 June) landed squarely in the $320–$343 range. Price has drifted sideways since, with volume thinning on green candles, a sign of diminishing buy pressure.

I’m eyeing $293.20 as a line in the sand. Below that, $283.30 follows quickly. From there, the high-volume node at $250 becomes the gravitational target. That’s also the most-traded level for $TSLA over the last five years.

📈 Indicators: Divergence or Breakdown?

   •   RSI: Daily RSI sits at 49.72, weekly is neutral at 51.02. No divergence confirmation yet

   •   MACD: Weakening. DIF at 3.85, MACD at 4.95. We’re near a bearish crossover on the weekly

   •   Momentum: Red blocks dominate BlackBox’s high-accuracy matrix with 63.3% short-term bear signals

   •   Whale Flow: Holding steady at 45.5%, supportive but insufficient alone

This is classic divergence between long-term conviction and short-term political noise.

💼 Options Flow and Institutional Moves

There’s rising OI on $300 and $290 puts, coupled with near-dated call straddles. IV is expanding, especially around weekly expiries. Institutions are bracing for sharp movement in either direction.

ARK Invest hasn’t flinched, still projecting $2,000 per share by 2030 under robotaxi scale assumptions. Goldman’s new 12-month target is $359, citing margin expansion through software and energy verticals. Hedge fund ownership trimmed slightly last quarter, down 3.8%, a tactical repositioning rather than a mass exodus.

🧠 Why the Thesis Holds: Tesla = Robotics Margin Expansion

Let’s be clear: none of this undermines the long-term thesis. You buy $TSLA not just for EVs; you buy it for humanoid robot scale, AI-first infrastructure, and first-mover leverage across energy, autonomy, and inference.

Tesla’s path to margin expansion lies not in autos but in replacing human labour with robotic platforms. That’s the story Musk is betting on, and so am I.

📌 My Watchlist: Strategy and Triggers

• $328.20: Reclaim this and I’ll scale in aggressively

• $293.20: Lose this and I’ll reduce short-term exposure

• $283.30: Liquidity zone, limit buy orders sit beneath this level

• $250: Strong institutional memory, high-probability bounce zone

• Political Escalation: Any suggestion of Musk reducing Tesla role = major market reaction

📉 Contrarian Insight: This Isn’t Over, But It’s Misunderstood

Most analysts are treating Musk’s political move as a distraction, but it’s also a disruption. Markets are used to binary choices: Democrat vs Republican. Musk introduces a third dimension with capital, platforms, and cultural sway.

If he escalates and Tesla bleeds lower, I’ll treat it as an opportunity. This isn’t about abandoning the stock; it’s about knowing when the market misprices risk.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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