To The Moon

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ $Centene(CNC)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 💹⚕️🌀 A thick knot of volume has curled around $16 to $17, and price just pulled back into that nest. I’m seeing echoes of the March liftoff. The rhythm feels familiar; if history rhymes again, the next stanza could be punchy.

⚕️🔥🚀 Oscar’s Echo Trade, Rhymes and Rallies in the Health Lane 🎯💥🌟

This setup isn’t just about momentum. It’s about the structure, the sentiment unwind, and the shape of what’s been left behind after the recent +100% rally. Here’s the full diagnostic.

📰 Fundamental Health Check

Total revenue rose to $3.05 billion in Q1 2025, up 64% year on year. The medical loss ratio eased to 75.4%, and SG&A fell to 15.8%. That shift helped drive a $297 million operating profit, a sharp reversal from the loss a year earlier. Market cap is near $4.19 billion, which puts the stock at just 1.4x forward sales despite consistent membership growth and operational leverage.

🧮 Peer Benchmark Snapshot

🟢 UNH: “Moderate Buy” with premium multiples and fortress-level cash flows

🟡 CNC: “Hold” after withdrawing 2025 guidance and falling on ACA reimbursement volatility

🔴 OSCR: “Reduce,” with a $16.58 average analyst target; price recently retested and stabilised around this level

📈 Technical Diagnosis

Daily MAs are stacked bullishly: MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA30. Momentum is building. RSI(6) reads 50.32 with the MACD histogram expanding above zero. Price reached $22.78 recently before dropping 19% back into the key shelf. This shelf coincides with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $16.93 and is clearly defined on volume profile. If that zone holds, I’m watching for a move to $18.40 (near the 0.786 retracement), followed by $19.48 (0.618), then potentially $22.78. Below $16.20 invalidates the fractal.Here’s a look at the short-term setup:

The last Golden Cross occurred in December 2023, when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day. The stock then rallied from $7 to $23 in just four months. We’ve now seen another Golden Cross, and if price action repeats its past trajectory, a move toward $32 may unfold over the coming months.

But there’s more to this than just moving averages.

This Golden Cross has occurred again within subwave 3 of primary wave 3, the most impulsive and momentum-driven part of the Elliott Wave structure. The same pattern emerged during subwave 3 of primary wave 1, adding symmetry and conviction to the idea of another aggressive leg higher. Interestingly, this crossover aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, suggesting a pivotal confluence  but also highlighting that there’s still room for the share price to drop further before momentum truly ignites.

💸 Volume and Sentiment

Recent action reflects elevated volume from hot money flow, followed by a sharp reversal that flushed stops. Short interest now sits at 16.5% of float, up 38% month over month. The put/call ratio remains low at 0.54, and call flows are concentrated at $20 and $25. That’s constructive for any future bounce attempt. Price has returned to a structural shelf, with signs of redistribution from weak hands to stronger holders.

🔭 Forward Lens: Probability Framework

Bull case (60%): Shelf holds, momentum builds, and we retest $18.82, followed by $22.78. Catalysts include Medicare Advantage updates and technical validation from the 200-day turning up.

Bear case (40%): Shelf fails, price breaks $16.20, and sellers target $15.58 or lower. Macro risk remains tied to ACA funding and regulatory adjustments.

🎯 What to Watch

• Reaction to the $16.30–$16.90 zone

• Direction of the 200-day moving average, currently flat to downward

• Any pickup in short covering or high-velocity tape breaks through $18+

🌟 Unique Insight

Consensus ratings lag the fundamentals. Analysts still rate $OSCR a “Reduce,” but the financials have shifted faster than models anticipated. Another sub-80% medical loss ratio in Q2 could shift the narrative from survival to growth, potentially rewriting fair value assumptions sector-wide.

⚠️ Risk Matrix

The biggest near-term risk is ACA reimbursement volatility, which has already damaged sentiment in the sector. Technically, failure to hold $16.20 opens downside toward $15.58 and the broader trendline near $14. Price structure remains vulnerable if macro sentiment rolls over or hot money doesn’t rotate back in.

💡 Trade Structure

The setup depends on $16s holding. If price stabilises near $17 and pushes above $18.40, a move toward $19.48 and $22.78 could be in play. If that zone collapses, I’ll reassess and reframe around the 1.618 Fib extension.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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