To The Moon

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $MercadoLibre(MELI)$ $Talen(TLN)$ 🚀📦📈 Prime Time Asymmetry: Bezos Trims, Bulls Charge, and the $381 Roadmap Unfolds 📈📦🚀

This setup has everything I look for: macro alignment, strategic insider signals, asymmetric options flow, and a price structure that’s coiled for resolution. Whether Amazon breaks higher this week or fakes out first, I’m positioned and prepared. Let me walk you through why this is my top watch.

📦 Prime Day: The Macro Catalyst in Plain Sight

Amazon’s 11th annual Prime Day runs from 8–11 July across 26 countries. What used to be a glorified clearance sale is now a macro catalyst in its own right. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth expects 10 % YoY sales growth, citing “category strength, lower delivery costs, and incremental AWS momentum,” and still calls Amazon one of his “top picks into Prime Day.” Truist’s Youssef Squali also anticipates a Q2 beat, stating, “We expect second-quarter results to surprise to the upside given discount cadence and FX tailwinds.” That’s exactly the kind of earnings runway that can fuel a breakout past multi-quarter resistance. Beyond retail, Amazon’s ad strategy is gaining steam; its Roku partnership is a smart play for monetising Fire TV’s growing footprint. Amazon won’t just sell the hardware, it’ll own the data and profit from the ad inventory, giving it another margin-rich pillar alongside AWS and e-commerce.

📉 Volatility Surface: Panic Puts, Calm Calls

The volatility surface (03 Jul 25) reveals a dramatic skew. Short-dated, deep OTM puts (for example $115–$135 with 9–16 DTE) are priced with IV above 100 %, while higher-strike calls remain calm with IV around 35 %–45 %. That tells me traders are hedging hard against near-term tail risk, not betting on blow-off tops. There’s a disconnect between short-term fear and long-term confidence, classic pre-breakout asymmetry. Fear creates fuel; when puts cost a fortune and calls stay cheap, upside can surprise fast.

📊 Skew & Reversal: Bullish Bias Holds Firm

The 1-month skew data confirms that edge. Amazon’s 25 D risk reversal continues to favour calls, with the skew percentile sitting at just 3.23 %, a 3-month low. There’s been no panic grab for downside protection; the options market quietly leans long, and that’s a green light when paired with bullish price structure.

📉 Insider Action: Bezos Selling Into Resistance

Jeff Bezos is trimming again, this time into the $223–$227 zone. It’s not a red flag, but it does mark this area as real resistance. That level has capped Amazon multiple times since March, including the $227.10 and $242.52 pivot highs. Whenever Bezos sells, I pay attention, not because he’s bearish, but because he’s tactically aware. I’m not fading this rally yet, though if price rejects again, I’ve got a roadmap below.

📈 Technicals: Bullish Structure, Ready to Rip

Price closed at $223.01 post-market. We’re riding clean above the 9 EMA and printing a series of higher lows on the weekly. Here’s how I’m breaking it down:

• RSI(6) at 73.13 and RSI(12) at 62.18; strong but not exhausted

• MACD flipping bullish, with histogram expansion and signal-line crossover

• MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA30, an ideal momentum stack

• Volume is climbing on up candles, easing on pullbacks

• Price is pressing resistance with no distribution signals yet

On the monthly chart we’ve reclaimed the 9 EMA and just closed above the 20 MA. The breakout trigger is $227.10; above that I’m eyeing $252.50 next, then blue sky.

📉 Valuation Check: $AMZN vs $MELI

Zooming out, Amazon still stacks up well against best-in-class e-commerce like MercadoLibre:

• Amazon trades at 7 × price/gross profit versus MELI at 11 ×

• FCF growth is smoother, even if MELI wins in % terms

• Amazon’s ROC is climbing again as margins stabilise post-cloud capex cycle

• MELI may be flashier, yet Amazon is scaling ad and cloud businesses with more consistency

While most focus on AWS and retail, I’d argue Amazon’s ad segment, fueled by Fire TV and streaming data, is where real operating leverage will emerge over the next 12 months.

💼 Macro Backdrop: The Right Name for This Cycle

The Fed’s July CPI report and retail sales (due 11 Jul 25) could reinforce Amazon’s positioning as a liquidity-safe mega cap. While cyclicals chop and rates bounce, Amazon offers cash-flow reliability, cloud upside, and AI adjacencies without the same speculative stretch. If yields ease post-CPI, I expect rotation back into mega tech, and Amazon is first on my list.

📈 Hedge Fund Flow & Analyst Targets

Recent 13 F filings show hedge funds increasing exposure since the April low of $161.38. Options flow has been bullish:

• High OI concentration on $230 and $250 July–August calls

• Minimal short interest at 0.72 % of float

• Dark-pool prints clustering around $217–$221 signal whale accumulation

Analyst sentiment remains firmly bullish: JPMorgan Overweight to $240 🟢, BofA Buy to $260 🟢, Morgan Stanley Overweight to $275 🟢, Evercore bull case $340 🟢.

🧭 My Watchlist and Gameplan

1. Breakout and hold above $227.10, I’ll ride short-dated $240–$250 calls

2. Pullback to $201.95–$209 support, reload equity or sell puts for premium

3. Aggressive re-entry if market offers $188.90 again, full-size swing

4. Watch 25 D skew and IV flip; a sudden rush into puts would shift sentiment

5. Track Prime Day sales data plus Roku ad metrics for clues on Q2 earnings power

🎯 My Conclusion: Structure Over Hype

I’m bullish because the chart, options market, analyst coverage, and macro backdrop are lining up. Clear $227 and a fast run to $252 is on deck. Longer term I still map $381 via the 1.618 Fib extension from the post-COVID cycle low; it’s not fantasy, it’s the logical outcome of revenue expansion and multiple compression unwind. I’m trading this chart like a map, not a guessing game: the levels are clear, the story is tight, and the market is tilted just enough offside to make the eventual move sharp.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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