To The Moon

$Sirius XM(SIRI)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ 🌟🌟🌟⚡🤖 I just added to $SIRI in the overnight market at $24.75, averaging in at $24.53. The breakout from a year-long down-channel is in motion while most traders are still distracted by macro noise. I’m not just riding a technical breakout, I’m front-running a structural cash flow shift.

07Jul25, 🇳🇿NZ Time

🔥🚀🎯 Hey SIRI, Cash-Flow Crescendo 🎯🚀🔥

📌 Executive Snapshot

• $SIRI is now cleanly spun off from Liberty with management incentives tied to free cash flow per share

• 2025 guidance: $8.5B revenue, $2.6B EBITDA, $1.15B FCF

• Satellite capex dropping from ~$300M to $180M this year, headed to near zero by 2028

• Short interest just 7% of float, put-call OI ratio at 0.28, and call volume jumped 79% above average on 03Jul

• Weekly breakout above $24.29 opens targets at $27.27, $29.03, then measured moves to $42.85 and $63.61

💡 Why I Added Overnight

I’m not chasing hype; I’m positioning early in a free cash flow re-rate. Over 50% of new vehicles now ship with SiriusXM’s 360L tech, lifting retention and conversion. A new $9.99 music-plus-streaming plan, plus a soon-to-launch ad-supported tier, creates pricing flexibility and wider reach.

Rate hikes had minimal churn impact, proving the loyalty of SIRI’s user base, especially in-car.

📊 Fundamental Deep Dive

• Q1 2025: Revenue down 4% YoY to $2.07B, EBITDA down 3% to $629M

• Self-pay net losses improved 16%, churn tightened to 1.6%

• Podcast revenue up 33%, offsetting softness in Pandora digital ads

• Management reaffirmed full-year targets; satellite capex falls to $180M in 2025, then gradually to zero

• Ad tech, Creator Connect, and programmatic solutions are growing rapidly and monetising SiriusXM’s podcast reach (now 70M+ MAUs)

🧠 Competitive Landscape

Spotify ($SPOT) has 100M tracks, Apple ($AAPL) bundles music, and YouTube Music ($GOOGL) owns youth attention. Still, Sirius owns the wheel.

For the 35+ demo, 80% of listening happens in the car. While streamers depend on cellular, Sirius’s satellite grid covers the entire U.S., no Wi-Fi needed. That’s a moat the algorithms can’t replicate.

📈 Technical Setup

• Weekly candle closed above year-long downtrend

• MACD flipped bullish for the first time in 9 months, RSI crossed 60 on a hidden divergence

• 📌 Key levels:

• Support: $22.67 (daily super-trend)

• Pivot: $27.27 (weekly super-trend)

• Breakout trigger: $29.03 (channel lip)

• Target 1: $42.85

• Target 2: $63.61

🔥 Options & Short Flow

• Unusual options flow: July $30 and August $35 calls lit up last week

• Implied volatility in the mid-50s, skew favouring upside

• Short volume ratio dropped to 10%, signalling unwind

• I sold August $22 puts to fund August $35 calls, turning premium into rocket fuel

🏦 Analyst & Fund Lens

• Berkshire Hathaway now owns 35% of $SIRI; their cost basis mirrors mine

• Street average PT is just $26.42, but the high-end analyst target sits at $43

• I expect upgrades post-Q2 when ad-tier adoption numbers come in

⚠️ Risks to Monitor

• Debt at 3.7× EBITDA creates rate risk

• Backend tech migration needs smooth execution, especially during NFL season

• The ongoing NY AG probe into cancellation policies is a headline overhang

• Competitors could pressure ARPU with bundling, so I hedge exposure via $SPOT call spreads

🗓️ Catalyst Calendar

• 31Jul25: Q2 earnings call (watch for ad-tier adoption commentary)

• July CPI & Fed minutes: inflation softness = ad revenue upside

• Automaker production updates: more 360L cars = more sticky conversions

• Watchlist tickers: $SPOT, $AAPL, $GOOGL

📌 My Trading Playbook

• Long-term investors: Add below $22, target $42 over 12–18 months

• Swing traders: Ride breakout to $29, trail stops under $23.90

• Options strategy: Sell Aug $22 puts to fund Aug $35 calls, exploiting skew

💥 Bold Conclusion

I’m backing $SIRI’s transformation from cash-flow cow to high-conviction compounding platform. The Liberty unwind, vanishing satellite capex, and 360L mass adoption are now aligning just as the stock breaks long-term resistance.

I’m risking 7% downside to capture a potential 70% upside; not based on hype, but on fundamentals, structure, and capital flow.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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