To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $Pony AI Inc(PONY)$ 📈🎯💼 UBER or MAG8? Ackman’s Bet, Options Fuel, and the $100 Trajectory 💼🎯📈

I closed out in the overnight session on 03Jul25 after opening the trade last Thursday, locking in a sharp $103.38 gain at $94.13. It was another precise swing on one of my favourite high-volume setups. Uber ticked down to $93.31 in the after-hours ebb, still camped just under resistance, and I’m sharpening the plan for my next entry as macro winds and momentum keep converging.

📰 Big-picture pulse

I’m riding the same tailwinds that drew Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square into a 30.3 million-share stake earlier this year. Ackman called Uber “one of the highest-quality businesses in the world,” and he’s sitting on a gain north of 50% year to date. Uber’s free-cash-flow pivot is undeniable, finishing 2024 at $6.9 billion and already pacing above $7.8 billion LTM.

The ride-hailing industry itself is sprinting; research projects a move from $74.9 billion in 2025 to $287.6 billion by 2034, a 16.1% compound growth rate. Uber’s network effect and expanding use cases give it the inside lane to capture that growth.

📊 Fundamentals that matter

• Market cap hovers near $196 billion, yet trailing P E is only 16.5, a discount to the other platform giants

• P S of 4.31 offers headroom for multiple expansion while margins widen

• Net cash of about $7 billion gives management the option to keep retiring debt and initiate buybacks

• Free-cash-flow growth outpaces most of big tech, turning pandemic-era red ink into an enviable blue streak

🏎️ Capital flow, options, and sentiment

Short interest sits at 1.93% of float with just 1.8 days to cover, showing little bearish backbone. The latest options flow is building in August 15 calls, with implied volatility rising to 44.9%.

• The $100 strike led volume at 1.97 K contracts, up 16.3% to $2.93

• $105 calls saw 1.24 K traded, rising 13%

• $92.5 and $95 calls also saw healthy activity, both gaining over 11% on the day

That kind of open interest profile could fuel momentum if $94.38 breaks, especially if call wall strikes trigger dealer hedging.

📈 Technical map I’m trading

Price continues to carve a textbook cup-and-handle that began in April. The 21-day EMA is $90.97 and rising, while the 50-day is $88.98, giving bulls steady trend support. Volume bars keep tilting green, and the MACD histogram flipped positive with expanding breadth. A daily close above $94.38 activates Fibonacci targets of $100.86 (1.618) and $112.60 (2.618). Key supports sit at $91.50 then $88.30; a sustained break below the 50-day forces a rethink.

💡 Contrarian edge

Many still view autonomous vehicles as an existential threat. I see the opposite: Uber is becoming the operating layer for any fleet, already partnering with Waymo robotaxis and Serve Robotics deliveries. Its 170 million monthly active users position it as the distribution backbone for AV mobility.

🎯 Scenarios and probabilities

• Bullish breakout, 70%: Close above $94.38, gamma squeeze pushes to $100, then $110–$113 by late August as bullish August calls accelerate

• Range coil, 25%: Repeated rejections keep shares chopping $88–$94 until the Q2 print

• Macro hit, 5%: A risk-off wave or hostile regulation drags price toward $75 support and I step aside

🔍 What I’m watching next

• Flow in the August 15 $110 and $115 calls; sustained buying there flags a bigger upside magnet

• Daily RSI for any divergence once price pierces $94.38

• Q2 bookings and MAPC checkpoints due late July; upside revision equals fuel, any slowdown is the fire alarm

⚠️ Key risks and how I hedge

Treasury volatility and election noise can sap risk appetite. I’m keeping size lean near resistance, and I trail stops quickly if candle structure starts to fail. A daily close below the 50-day EMA is my structural invalidation.

Action plan

With Thursday’s $94.13 exit bagged, I’m stalking fresh shares near $92, or I’ll chase on a confirmed breakout once $94.38 prints on volume. First trim sits at $99.40, with staged targets at $100.86 and $112.60. Uber is already stealing a seat beside the Magnificent Seven; in my book it’s MAG member number eight, quietly turning mobility scale into a cash-flow super-cycle.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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