To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE TESLA DAILY TARGET ETF(TSLZ)$ $Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$ 🚨📉⚡ Musk’s Political Drag Race: $22B Vanishes, Put Payday Rolls In, Stellantis Downgraded ⚡📉🚨

Tesla stock is down 7.14% pre-market to $292.83 on 07Jul25, 🇳🇿NZ Time, wiping out over $22 billion in market cap. The drop isn’t just sentiment-driven, it’s the result of calculated institutional positioning. Just two minutes before the 03Jul25 US close, more than $1 million in premium flooded into 7/11 expiry $TSLA puts at the $300 and $327.50 strikes.

Fast forward: those puts are now deep in the money. With calls bleeding out nearly $300K in outflows and puts absorbing $4.14 million, the net drift leaned heavily bearish. And it played out with textbook precision.

📊 03Jul25 Options Breakdown:

• Puts net inflow: $4.14M

• Calls net outflow: -$297.07K

• Underlying faded from $318 intraday to $315, then cratered to $292.83

• Volume flipped red across the board, confirming aggressive positioning

This wasn’t retail panic. This was strategic pre-positioning ahead of a major political headline: Elon Musk’s formal launch of the America Party.

🗳️ Musk’s America Party: Disruption or Distraction?

The new political party aims to tackle trillion-dollar legislation by introducing real-time voter oversight, a bold shift that sounds appealing but rattled markets. Investors are questioning whether Musk can effectively lead both Tesla and a political revolution, especially as regulatory scrutiny looms. The concern isn’t ideological, it’s operational. Every second of Musk’s time matters when you’re scaling Dojo, training FSD, and trying to win the autonomy race.

🚗 Auto Sector Red Flag: BofA Downgrades $STLA

Bank of America just downgraded Stellantis ($STLA) to Neutral from Buy and slashed its price target from €16 to €10. Analyst Horst Schneider cited:

• Roughly 30% YTD price decline, 55 percent off summer 2024 highs

• Weak BEV positioning in Europe

• No near-term catalysts

• Expected weak H1 and H2 earnings

The downgrade reflects broader auto sector fragility. If a giant like Stellantis is struggling to compete, Tesla’s lead is clear, but it also raises the stakes.

📉 Technical Lens: Elliott Wave + Fibonacci Map

• $292.83 sits just above the key 0.5 Fibonacci level at $290

• Hold this level, and the bullish fractal remains intact, projecting a potential Wave 3 target of $748.86 by EOY 2025

• Deeper support zones: $259.77, $236.00

• Resistance zones to reclaim: $308.56 and $328.20

• Momentum pivot sits at $315, that breakdown marked the structural shift

⚙️ Meanwhile… Tesla’s AI Is Out for Blood on the Track

Elon is also teasing Tesla’s AI/Autopilot racing system, suggesting it may soon outperform professional drivers. It’s a flashy narrative pivot, but not just marketing,it’s a bet that Tesla’s autonomy tech is finally production-grade.

🏁 The “Speed Showdown” Narrative:

• Tesla AI vs Human Racers

• Machine Precision > Human Reflex

• Track performance as an FSD showcase

🎯 What I’m Watching:

• Can $290 hold on volume or will gamma accelerate the move?

• Political blowback: Will shareholders demand clarity on Musk’s time allocation?

• Sentiment reset: Can AI racing hype shift focus away from macro drag?

💡 Contrarian Insight:

This sharp flush may be Tesla’s capitulation moment into fib support. If $290 holds and we see vol crush into Wednesday, I’ll be watching for a snapback rally, especially if gamma neutralises and retail starts eyeing robotaxi upside again.

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