To The Moon

'Big, Beautiful Bill' Goes Live—Here's Who's Cashing In and Who's Crashing"

Last Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives delivered a nail - biter, passing President Trump's “Big, Beautiful Bill” by a razor - thin 218 - to - 214 vote. This $340 million tax and spending package raced across the finish line, signed into law just ahead of the July 4th (Eastern Time) deadline. Its shockwaves are set to rock the U.S. industries far and wide. Sure, Medicaid and state/local tax breaks are grabbing headlines as core flashpoints, but the ripple effects will hit countless sectors — and Wall Street is watching closely. 

Here's a sector - by - sector breakdown of who stands to win big (or get burned) in U.S. capital markets:

Winners

– Chip Manufacturers: it hikes the tax credit for new U.S.-based chip factory construction from 25% to 35%. To qualify, projects must begin construction by late 2026 — aligning with the Trump administration’s drive to onshore production of critical AI-revolution technologies. Firms like $Intel (INTC.US)$ and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ , expanding domestic manufacturing, could reap rewards. Keep an eye on $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ , and $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ .

– Energy Companies: Fossil fuel industries are big winners. The bill restarts oil and gas lease auctions in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico’s public lands/waters, and western states; restores lower royalty rates; and increases subsidies for carbon capture used in enhanced oil recovery. It scraps Biden - era green energy subsidies, deregulating oil/gas extraction and pipeline infrastructure. $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ , $Chevron (CVX.US)$ and other upstream firms stand to gain directly.

– Airlines: The bill earmarks $12.5 billion to modernize the U.S. air traffic control system — a move widely backed by airline executives, who’ve long cited outdated infrastructure as a root cause of delays. Industry groups see it as crucial initial funding but stress billions more will be needed for full modernization. Beneficiaries include $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ , $Boeing (BA.US)$ , and $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ .

– Real Estate Developers: The bill preserves and expands existing tax breaks for commercial real estate investors/developers. This includes the bonus depreciation policy (a 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act feature), allowing 100% deduction for certain property improvements. It also makes the "Opportunity Zones" tax deferral for real estate investments permanent. Affordable housing gets a lift too: the low - income housing tax credit program is expanded by 12%, funding ~50,000 new units annually. Related stocks such as $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$ , $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$ and $NVR Inc (NVR.US)$ are expected to benefit from favorable policies.

– Nuclear Energy: The bill retains tax credits (Investment Tax Credit - ITC and Production Tax Credit - PTC) for nuclear projects. New reactors starting construction by late 2028 can extend credits through 2032, with a focus on advanced tech like small modular reactors (SMRs). A short-term policy winner caught between traditional and green energy, though long-term success hinges on technology maturity and construction timelines. Among others in the nuclear business, $Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$ , $Oklo Inc (OKLO.US)$ and $NuScale Power (SMR.US)$ have both risen recently due to the boost from the bill.

– Defense Industry: Defense firms share in a $150 billion Pentagon budget boost for shipbuilding, ammunition production, and missile defense (with $25 billion earmarked for Golden Dome antimissile shield). $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ , $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ , and $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ stand to gain.

– Private Student Loan Institutions: Firms like $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ benefit from lower federal student loan caps. New limits slash graduate federal borrowing to $100,000 (down from $138,500 for most, $224,000 for some health programs) and professional program (e.g., medical school) caps to $200,000. Smaller federal limits may push more students toward private lenders to fill gaps. 

Losers

– EV Makers: The bill ends the $7,500 EV purchase/lease subsidy early — vehicles bought after September 30 lose eligibility. This hits $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ , $Ford Motor (F.US)$ , $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ , etc., as U.S. EV sales stall at about 8% of the new car market.

– Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Companies: After a 12 - month window for new renewable projects, developers lose specific tax credits. U.S. factories making solar panels may see a short - term order surge as developers rush projects before the deadline — but face long - term risks of client defection (buying directly from China). The American Clean Power Association (ACP) estimates a new excise tax will add $4 - 7 billion in costs for U.S. clean energy firms over a decade. Rhodium Group predicts 10% - 20% cost hikes for wind and solar projects. Watch $First Solar (FSLR.US)$ , $Sunrun (RUN.US)$ , $SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.US)$ .

– Food Companies: Major food firms rely heavily on SNAP beneficiaries’spending — many cited 2023 SNAP cuts as a sales drag. Bernstein analysts note SNAP users account for nearly 9% of grocery spending; $The Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)$ , $General Mills (GIS.US)$ , and $McCormick & Co (MKC.US)$ are most exposed.

– Logistics Companies: The bill removes duty - free status for small parcels. U.S. Customs data shows ~4 million such parcels processed daily in 2024. $FedEx (FDX.US)$ , $United Parcel Service (UPS.US)$ , and $Expeditors International (EXPD.US)$ thrived on e - commerce growth, but cost hikes could dampen consumer demand and parcel volumes.

– Medical Industry: The "Big, Beautiful Bill" hits healthcare hard. Medicaid tightening pressures providers like $Centene (CNC.US)$ (heavy on Medicaid business) and $CVS Health (CVS.US)$ (involving pharma wholesale/retail), reducing enrollment and revenues. While Health Savings Account(HSA) expansions may marginally help sectors like medical devices, pharma, and $Cigna Group (CI.US)$ (commercial health insurers), broader turmoil from Medicaid cuts and SNAP changes dominates — a net negative for public - payment - reliant care systems.

Though light on direct crypto clauses, the bill has profound ripple effects: macro - economically, fiscal expansion and rising debt erode long - term confidence in the dollar and Treasuries, pushing investors toward inflation - hedging, non - sovereign value stores and bolstering Bitcoin's “digital gold” status (evidenced by BTC briefly surging past $110,000 post - signing); politically, its passage confirms the Trump administration's pro - crypto stance, with the GOP’s crypto - friendly platform and “strategic Bitcoin reserve” executive order injecting sector momentum. Looking ahead, the upcoming “Crypto Week” aims to turn this goodwill into concrete legal frameworks, as House Speaker Mike Johnson frames it as a step to “fully implement President Trump’s digital asset and crypto policy blueprint” — bridging macro benefits to tangible industry rules.

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