To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ $T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF(NVDX)$ 🤖🚀📊 The $10 Trillion Blueprint: Nvidia’s Ascent from AI Core to Market Crown 📊🚀🤖

Nvidia isn’t merely selling silicon, it’s wiring the neural grid of the next industrial revolution. Citi’s fresh $190 target, tied to a FY2028 EPS of $6.37 at a 30 × P/E, lands as the AI datacenter total addressable market surges to $563 B by 2028, up from $500 B just months ago. Shares are compressing around $159.14, forming an ascending triangle that screams pent-up energy rather than exhaustion. Two weeks ago the stock punched through multi-month resistance near $153; that breakout is now serving as a springboard for the next leg.

🧠 Earnings Power Meets Cost Discipline

• Revenue (LTM): $144.5 B, +65.8 %

• Data-center revenue: $113.7 B, +100.2 %, 78.7 % of total

• Gross profit: $96.4 B, +78.7 %, margin 66.7 %

• Net income: $76.8 B, +80.2 %

• SG&A and R&D down as a % of sales, signalling expanding operating leverage

Every marginal AI dollar converts almost line for line into free cash flow, letting Nvidia seed entirely new verticals, from autonomous robotics to digital twins, without levering the balance sheet. It’s the closest analogue I’ve seen to a digital Berkshire Hathaway, compounding intellectual property instead of insurance float.

📈 Technical Compression and Price Path

Intraday tape shows higher lows at $158.50, lower highs at $159.29, and Bollinger Bands pinching. On the weekly chart I’ve counted five consecutive higher closes; last week printed a textbook inside bar with a higher low and higher high, confirming bullish continuation. RSI (6) sits at 82, MACD histogram bars are rising, and the slope on DMA (10, 50) has flipped positive for the first time since the May pullback. I’m treating $158.50 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Clear $159.74 with five-minute volume above 134 K and the door opens to $160.98, $170, and Citi’s $190 handle.

🔥 Options Flow and Whale Positioning 🐋

• 📉 Bearish hedge: $2.7 M sweep of 19 Sep 25 $139 puts, 12 % OTM; a hedge worth respecting

• 📈Bullish conviction: $13.6 M buy of 08 Aug 25 $160 calls

• Net premium: –$12.4 M, put-call skew 63 % to puts, likely protective, not directional

• Open interest piling up at $155, $160, and $170 (Aug 15 OI +17,752 contracts)

Gamma walls at $160 can create a vacuum once breached, with dealers scrambling for delta and extending the move rapidly.

🔍 Short Interest, Analyst Sentiment, and Hedge-Fund Targets

Short volume sits at 60.05 M with an 11.28 % ratio, elevated yet manageable given the float. Among 64 covering analysts, 36 % rate Strong Buy, 56 % Buy, and 8 % Hold; none flag Sell. Bernstein reiterates “Outperform” at $185, while Morgan Stanley’s bull-case scenario stretches to $215 if datacenter uptake accelerates further. Hedge-fund chatter I track on prop-desk terminals pegs a 12-month median target just shy of $200, with upside skew into the $220s on accelerated EPS revisions.

🧮 Macro Grid and Thematic Tailwinds

• Fed pause keeps real yields contained, supporting long-duration growth assets

• Sovereign AI: Saudi Arabia, the EU, and Singapore are locking in multiyear H200 clusters, and every contract I’ve reviewed lists Nvidia as the primary GPU vendor

• Infrastructure CapEx: Industry analysts now forecast global data-center spend to top $1 T by 2029. Nvidia’s cost of debt is marginal; net interest expense was only $696 M versus $77.6 B in EBIT, so rising rates are noise, not narrative

🛠️ Real-World Orders, Ecosystem Pulldown, and the “Big Bill” Basket

2CRSi just secured a £54 M (~$67 M) order for HGX H200 servers in the UK; shipments start in August. A separate US tranche valued at $100 M is slated for Q4 delivery. Each node packs eight H200 GPUs, cementing Nvidia’s architecture as the default AI engine. Suppliers and second-derivative winners remain $TSM, $ASML, $AVGO, $MRVL, $MU, $PLTR, and $VRT. FuturumEquities’ “Blessed by Big Beautiful Bill” shortlist layers on $RKLB, $ASTS, $EOSE, and $OKLO for speculative torque.

🧩 Market Sentiment and Relative Strength

NVDA is up 14.4 % YTD, lagging $PLTR at 85 % and $MU at 37.3 %, but that underperformance follows a 250 % surge in 2024. ValueSense heat-maps show Nvidia still drives 25 % of the entire AI-chip sector’s market-cap gains. Rotation looks like fatigue on a static chart, yet under the hood it’s kinetic energy loading for a second impulse.

📋 Forward Watchlist

1. $160.98 breakout with supporting IV expansion

2. July CPI on 11 Jul plus $TSM and $AVGO earnings for supply-chain reads

3. Net put-call premium flipping positive into 15 Jul expiry

4. Fresh sovereign AI cluster deals referencing HGX H200 or Grace Hopper

5. Dealer gamma exposure around the $170 strike as August contracts build

🎯 Trading Plan

I’m long core stock from $144. I trimmed at $159 and rolled gains into Aug $160 calls. A tag of $158.50 is my reload zone with stops under $157. Break and close above $160.98, I’ll staircase exits at $170, then trail runners toward $190. My five-year DCF, assuming Nvidia captures 45 % of the projected $563 B datacenter pie, drives fair value north of $350 per share, implying world-first $10 T equity valuation potential. I’m content to compound there.

🔒 Conclusion

Nvidia isn’t gliding on the AI wave; it’s laying the fibre, minting the picks, and charging every toll. Fundamentals roar, technicals coil, and institutional capital is positioning for upside despite headline hedges. I’m staying constructive, adding on liquidity pockets, and letting global compute demand fuel the next thrust.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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