To The Moon

Here’s a detailed breakdown of whether to hold or buy puts on Tesla (TSLA) at its current price of around $300–315:

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📉 Tesla Stock: Current Situation (July 2025)

| Metric | Value |

|--------|-------|

| Current Price | ~$315 USD |

| 52-Week Range | $182 – $488 |

| YTD Performance | -22% |

| Q2 Deliveries | 384,000 (↓13% YoY) |

| Next Earnings | July 23, 2025 |

| Market Cap | ~$1 Trillion |

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✅ Reasons to Hold (Bullish Case)

1. Robotaxi Catalyst

   - Tesla’s robotaxi pilot is underway in Austin, with volume production of the Cybercab expected in 2026.

   - Analysts see this as a major long-term growth driver.

2. Strong Capital Position

   - Tesla has a massive capital advantage over rivals like Rivian and Lucid.

   - This gives it staying power even in a competitive EV market.

3. Analyst Targets

   - Wedbush: $500 (Outperform)

   - Benchmark: $475 (Buy)

   - Goldman Sachs: $315 (Neutral)

   - Mizuho: $375 (Neutral)

4. Diversified Business

   - Tesla’s energy, battery storage, and Supercharger segments are growing.

   - These help offset EV margin compression.

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⚠️ Reasons to Consider a Put Option (Bearish Case)

1. Declining Deliveries

   - Q1 and Q2 2025 both showed 13% YoY drops in vehicle deliveries.

   - Tesla’s market share in the U.S. and Europe is shrinking.

2. Political Risk

   - Elon Musk’s political activity (launching the “America Party”) is hurting brand perception and distracting from Tesla’s core business.

3. Regulatory Headwinds

   - U.S. EV tax credits may be eliminated, risking a $1.2B earnings hit.

   - FSD (Full Self-Driving) faces regulatory scrutiny.

4. Valuation Concerns

   - Some analysts say Tesla is overvalued given its slowing growth and rising competition.

   - Guggenheim maintains a Sell rating with a $175 target.

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🧠 Verdict: Hold for Now, Watch July 23 Earnings Closely

- If you already hold TSLA, it may be worth holding through earnings. The robotaxi narrative and long-term innovation potential are still strong.