To The Moon

The Q2 2025 earnings season for major U.S. banks delivered a blockbuster performance—most crushed Wall Street’s expectations—but the stock market had other ideas. While Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase rode high on trading surges, Wells Fargo’s slashed guidance sent its shares tumbling. From record equities trading at Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley’s volatility-fueled gains, the season was a mixed bag of triumphs and turbulence. Buckle up as we unpack the numbers, dissect the stock swings, and chart what’s next for these financial giants.

Earnings Season at a Glance: Beats Galore, Stocks Diverge

The big banks mostly flexed their muscle this quarter, topping earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. Yet, the market didn’t hand out gold stars uniformly. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all outperformed, fueled by trading desks and investment banking rebounds. Wells Fargo joined the beat parade but tripped over its own 2025 outlook, dragging its stock down. Here’s the rundown:

The table paints a clear picture: beats were the norm, but stock reactions hinged on more than just the numbers. Guidance, macroeconomic jitters, and tariff talks stirred the pot.

Diving Deep: What Drove Each Bank

Citigroup: Trading Surge Sparks Modest Cheers

Citigroup smashed estimates with an EPS of $1.96 against $1.61 expected and revenue of $21.7 billion versus $21.0 billion. Markets revenue soared 16% to $5.9 billion—its strongest since Q2 2020—while banking revenue climbed 12% to $2 billion. Fixed income trading alone spiked 14% to $3.7 billion, riding market volatility like a pro. The stock crept up 1%, tempered by cautious vibes around trade policy uncertainties.

JPMorgan Chase: A Trading and Banking Juggernaut

JPMorgan Chase flexed its dominance, posting an EPS of $5.24 (excluding a tax perk) against $4.11 expected and revenue of $45.68 billion, blowing past the $41.73 billion forecast. Fixed income trading leaped 14% to $5.7 billion, and investment banking fees grew 7% to $2.5 billion. With a bumped-up full-year net interest income outlook to $95.5 billion, the stock soared 5%, shrugging off tariff warnings.

Wells Fargo: Profit Win, Guidance Whiff

Wells Fargo clocked an EPS of $1.60 versus $1.41 expected and revenue of $20.8 billion, just above the $20.7 billion mark. Investment banking revenue ticked up 8% to $463 million, but the party stopped there. A slashed 2025 net interest income forecast—from $52 billion to $50 billion—spooked investors, tanking the stock 5%. Macro headwinds and tariff fears didn’t help.

Morgan Stanley: Volatility Pays Off

Morgan Stanley’s EPS hit $2.13, topping the $1.90 estimate, with revenue of $16.8 billion outpacing $15.5 billion expected. Trading revenue jumped 18% to $5.2 billion, thanks to equity trading gains in a choppy market. Investment banking took a 9% hit to $1.4 billion, but wealth management shone with a 24% revenue boost to $2.1 billion. The stock nudged up 2%.

Bank of America: Steady but Shaky

Bank of America edged out with an EPS of $0.89 against $0.86 expected, though revenue of $26.61 billion missed the $26.72 billion target. Fixed income trading rose 8% to $2.9 billion, and loan revenue beat forecasts. Net interest income dipped 2.9% to $14.1 billion, pressuring margins. The stock slipped 0.5%, caught in tariff uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs: Equities Trading Steals the Show

Goldman Sachs dazzled with an EPS of $10.50 versus $9.80 expected and revenue of $12.5 billion, topping $12.0 billion forecasts. Equities trading hit a record $2.0 billion, up 22%, while investment banking fees soared 26% to $2.48 billion. The stock climbed 3%, buoyed by a strong M&A pipeline despite geopolitical noise.

Stock Swings: Beyond the Numbers

Why the rollercoaster? It’s all about the future. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs waved green flags with upbeat guidance, while Wells Fargo’s cut and Citigroup’s tariff caution threw cold water on their beats. Trade tensions and potential rate shifts kept investors on edge, amplifying reactions to every word from the C-suite.

Charting the Chaos: Stock Performance Snapshot

Here’s how the banks’ stocks stacked up year-to-date:

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