To The Moon

The stock market on July 21, 2025, is buzzing with activity as investors navigate a complex landscape of trade policy developments, robust corporate earnings, and mixed economic signals. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been hitting record highs, driven by strong performances in the tech sector, while trade uncertainties, such as proposed tariffs on Canada and other countries, introduce volatility. In this comprehensive analysis, we highlight the key stocks to watch, identify trading opportunities, and outline a strategic trading plan for the day.

Market Overview

Recent market activity indicates a bullish trend tempered by volatility. On July 17, 2025, the S&P 500 gained 0.54% to close at a record 6,297.36, marking its ninth record close of the year, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.75% to 20,885.65, its tenth record close. These gains were fueled by strong corporate earnings and positive economic data, including a robust June jobs report showing stronger-than-expected hiring and a falling unemployment rate. However, trade policy developments have created uncertainty. On July 11, 2025, stocks retreated after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada, citing fentanyl concerns, and threatened blanket tariffs of 15-20% on other countries, higher than the 10% investors had anticipated. This led to a 0.63% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 44,371.51, a 0.33% decline in the S&P 500 to 6,259.75, and a 0.22% fall in the Nasdaq to 20,585.53. Additionally, mixed economic signals, such as a surprising decrease in June private payrolls, have raised concerns about the U.S. economy’s health.

Key Stocks to Watch

Based on recent market trends and news, the following stocks are worth monitoring on July 21, 2025:

1. Nvidia ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ): Nvidia has been a standout performer, leading the tech rally with its dominance in AI and chip manufacturing. On July 15, 2025, the Nasdaq hit a new high, driven by Nvidia’s strong performance. Any developments in AI, data centers, or trade policies could significantly impact its stock price.

2. PepsiCo ( $Pepsi(PEP)$ ): PepsiCo’s stock surged over 7% on July 17, 2025, following better-than-expected earnings. Its resilience in the consumer staples sector makes it a strong candidate for stability in volatile markets.

3. United Airlines ( $United Airlines(UAL)$ ): United Airlines gained 3% on July 17, 2025, after beating earnings estimates. The airline sector’s strength, also evidenced by Delta Air Lines’ performance, suggests potential for further gains, though tariff-related risks to travel demand should be monitored.

4. JPMorgan Chase ( $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ ): As a bellwether for the banking sector, JPMorgan’s performance is critical, especially after bank stocks slumped on July 15, 2025. Investors should watch for signs of recovery or further weakness in financials.

5. Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): With Bitcoin reaching a new high above $118,000 on July 11, 2025, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase are likely to see increased volatility and potential upside, though they carry significant risk.

Trading Opportunities

The current market environment offers several trading opportunities, balanced by the need for caution due to trade-related volatility:

• Tech Sector: The tech sector, led by Nvidia, Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL), has been a driving force behind the Nasdaq’s record highs. Buying these stocks on dips could be a profitable strategy, given their strong momentum. For instance, Nvidia’s leadership in AI makes it a prime candidate for long-term growth, though short-term pullbacks may occur due to trade uncertainties.

• Consumer Staples: Stocks like PepsiCo offer stability in uncertain times. Their defensive nature makes them attractive for investors seeking to mitigate risk amid tariff-related volatility.

• Airlines: United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have shown resilience post-earnings, with strong demand driving gains. However, potential tariff impacts on travel demand could pose risks, so traders should monitor news closely.

• Cryptocurrency Stocks: The surge in Bitcoin prices suggests potential for gains in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy (MSTR). These stocks are high-risk, high-reward, and traders should be prepared for significant volatility.

Strategic Trading Plan

To capitalize on these opportunities while managing risk, consider the following trading plan for July 21, 2025:

• Buy NVDA at $150-$155, target $200-$220: Nvidia’s strong performance and leadership in AI make it a top pick. Buying on dips within this range could yield significant returns, given its upward trajectory.

• Buy PEP at $185-$190, target $200-$210: PepsiCo’s recent earnings strength and defensive nature make it a safer play. This range offers a good entry point for potential gains.

• Hedge with VIXY at $15, target $18: To protect against potential market downturns due to trade tensions or unexpected economic data, consider a position in the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY).

• Keep 20% cash: Maintaining cash reserves allows flexibility to seize new opportunities or buy additional shares during market dips.

Stock Performance Trends

The following chart illustrates the hypothetical price movements of NVDA, PEP, UAL, and JPM from July 1 to July 20, 2025, based on recent market trends:

Key Market Influences

Trade Policy Developments

Trade policies have been a significant driver of market volatility. On July 8, 2025, the S&P 500 ended nearly flat after President Trump confirmed no exceptions to his August 1 tariff start date, causing uncertainty. On July 11, 2025, the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada led to a market pullback, with the Dow dropping 0.63%. These developments suggest that trade-related news will continue to influence market sentiment on July 21, 2025.

Earnings Season

Corporate earnings have been a bright spot, with companies like PepsiCo and United Airlines exceeding expectations on July 17, 2025. Delta Air Lines also reported strong earnings, boosting airline stocks on July 10, 2025. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports for potential catalysts.

Economic Data

Economic indicators have been mixed. A strong June jobs report on July 3, 2025, supported market gains, but a surprising decrease in private payrolls raised concerns about economic health. Inflation data and other economic releases around July 14, 2025, also influenced investor sentiment, contributing to the Nasdaq’s record high.

Sector Analysis

Risk Management

Given the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and mixed economic data, risk management is critical. Hedging with volatility ETFs like VIXY or SPY puts can protect against sudden market downturns. Maintaining cash reserves allows flexibility to capitalize on dips or new opportunities. Traders should also stay updated on trade policy announcements and economic data releases, as these could trigger significant market movements.

Conclusion

The market on July 21, 2025, presents a blend of opportunity and risk. By focusing on key stocks like Nvidia, PepsiCo, United Airlines, JPMorgan Chase, and Coinbase, and employing a balanced trading strategy, investors can navigate the volatility and potentially capitalize on the ongoing bull market. Stay informed, manage risk, and trade smart.

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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