To The Moon

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 

I believe Google is quietly leading the next phase of AI adoption, and the market is starting to catch on

I’m fully convinced that Alphabet ($GOOG and $GOOGL) is no longer in pre-breakout mode; it’s in rerating territory. The stock’s move to $193.40 in overnight trading isn’t random; it’s the culmination of months of silent accumulation meeting institutional validation.

The strength of the underlying trend is undeniable:

• 10 of the last 11 weeks have closed green

• 4 straight months of gains

• 9 of the last 11 quarters in the green

• And 9 of the last 11 years climbing higher

It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that this isn’t hype; it’s structural. And yes, I’m extremely optimistic heading into earnings.

The $22M premium flow into the 210C Sep19 strike, at 77% of open interest, isn’t just aggressive positioning. It reflects deep conviction from institutional players who understand how fast Google’s AI monetisation curve could steepen.

I’m particularly drawn to the valuation-to-execution gap. Google has delivered $359.6B in revenue over the past year, with $111B in net income and 30.9% net margins. Cloud is scaling 30% year over year, and the company’s AI infrastructure, from Gemini to TPUs, is already deployed and operating at global scale. Yet the market is only beginning to reflect that with a 13.55x EV/EBITDA valuation framework for FY26.

What excites me most about this setup is that we’ve shifted from potential to trajectory. The Street’s expectations, $93.75B in revenue and $2.25 in EPS, are modest relative to the margin and monetisation leverage Google could now deliver. I’ll be focused on segment momentum, CapEx allocation, and the tone of AI guidance. This is no longer about price reaction; it’s about fundamental revaluation.

I’m also seeing ripple effects well beyond Alphabet itself. The strength in $GOOG and $GOOGL is already spilling into broader ETF positioning, with $QQQ attracting heavy inflows as traders rotate back into mega-cap tech. For those targeting leverage, the 2x ETF $GGLL has seen a sharp increase in volume ahead of earnings, reflecting short-term bullish conviction. Even thematic trackers like $GOOY and $GOOP, known for capturing amplified sentiment around Alphabet’s innovation stack, are gaining traction. This tells me the market isn’t just reacting to a strong stock; it’s repricing the ecosystem Alphabet anchors.

The market is finally awakening to what some of us have seen for months: Google isn’t just playing in AI, it’s positioned to dominate the entire vertical stack. If this earnings print confirms what capital flow and trend already suggest, $200 becomes an interim checkpoint, not a ceiling.

I’m not in a position yet, but that may change rapidly. This isn’t speculative anymore; it’s an unfolding repricing of one of the most profitable, scalable, and strategically advantaged companies on the planet. I'm really excited to see how this plays out and believe earnings will exceed expectations once again like it did it Q1. 

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