IS GOOGL A BUY AFTER Q2 EARNINGS?
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Let's look at my simple valuation model:
PRICE TARGET: $245
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +25% ✅
ASSUMPTIONS:
LTM Revenue: $371.399B
5Y Revenue CAGR: 10%
2030 Profit Margin: 30%
2030 PE Ratio: 22
Shares outstanding: 12.198B
Shares reduction: 2%/year
VALUATION:
Q2 2030 $GOOGL Share Price =
371.399 * (1.10)^5 * 0.30 * 22 /
[12.198 * (0.98)^5] = 358$
You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Google I want to use 10%.
ACTUAL PRICE: $196
FAIR VALUE: $222
1Y PRICE TARGET: $245
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +25%
EXPECTED RETURNS: 12.8%/year
DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.4%
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