$Apple(AAPL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 📈🍏🚀 Can Apple Break Free From Its $3T Cage This Week? 🚀🍏📈
I’m convinced Apple is on the brink of a defining moment. While the S&P 500 powers to all-time highs, $AAPL is still down 12.29% YTD. That divergence won’t last. I’ve been long since $198, and while last week’s add didn’t meet my criteria, the setup into earnings is textbook.
Earnings drop this Thursday after close with an implied move of ±4.18%. JP Morgan expects a beat: $89.6B revenue vs $88.96B consensus, and $1.43 EPS. Bloomberg consensus aligns: $89.156B rev, $1.429 EPS, $21.378B net income. Technically, price is coiling under $220 to $222 resistance with a clear base at $209. RSI is 61.41 and MACD is turning bullish. This breakout could ignite fast.
The weak dollar is a tailwind. But the macro headwinds are real. Apple expects Q3 gross margin of 46%, down from 47.1%, with $900M in tariff costs already baked in. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on China and Vietnam imports could hit Q4 even harder. COO Jeff Williams is retiring, replaced by Sabih Khan; a shift that quietly signals deeper supply chain recalibration.
AI remains Apple’s paradox. Apple Intelligence debuted at WWDC but lacks full rollout. Siri’s relaunch is delayed until 2026, and current AI tools only run on iPhone 15 Pro models. Investors want more, but that’s the opportunity. Tom Lee calls Apple “quietly ready to pounce,” and I agree. Sometimes the laggard becomes the leader when expectations are lowest.
The Services segment is Apple’s backbone: $26.65B last quarter, expected to hit $27.5B this one, fueled by 1B paid subscriptions and early AI integrations. But saturation is creeping in, and EU regulatory pressure on App Store fees could weigh on margins. Apple needs to monetize AI differently; likely through bundled subscriptions and enterprise-facing models via Anthropic and OpenAI partnerships.
Manufacturing is evolving. Apple’s $500B US investment plan aims to reduce geopolitical risk, with AI servers built domestically. Still, India’s 85% iPhone yield vs China’s 95% adds rework cost. Margins will stay under pressure unless pricing offsets ramp.
Analysts remain bullish: 36 Buys, 21 Holds, 3 Sells on Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley reiterated “Overweight” last week, citing strong iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales and FX tailwinds. Meanwhile, Shell Asset Management added 146,160 shares in Q2, joining other mega-cap tech allocations like NVDA and MSFT.
This isn’t just about a beat. It’s about whether Apple regains leadership in AI, margin resilience, and investor trust. If it does, we may look back at $214 as the last cheap entry.
Do you think Apple breaks above $222 post-earnings, or will tariff drag and AI hesitation keep it range-bound?
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- Kiwi Tigress·07-28TOPThis Siri delay is crazy 😭 Apple out here ghosting AI season while Meta and Microsoft already RSVP’d to the future 📲🧠2Report
- Queengirlypops·07-28TOPApple been lurking in the shadows while SPX parties 🎉… earnings might finally give it that main character energy 🍏💥1Report
- Hen Solo·07-28TOPApple’s not racing like META or MSFT, but that Tom Lee call sticks, when they move, they move big. Subscriptions plus that base under $209 has me watching very closely.2Report
- Hen Solo·07-28TOPApple’s not racing like META or MSFT, but that Tom Lee call sticks, when they move, they move big. Subscriptions plus that base under $209 has me watching very closely.3Report
- Hen Solo·07-28TOPApple’s not racing like META or MSFT but that Tom Lee call sticks. When they move they move big. Subscriptions plus that base under $209 has me watching very closely.3Report
- Cool Cat Winston·07-28TOPHonestly can’t believe AAPL is still lagging while the rest of the megacaps rip. That $900M tariff drag plus the slow Siri rollout explains a lot. If they guide clean and break $222, this could turn into another NVDA catch-up play fast.3Report