NVIDIA Doubled From Lows: While Other Stocks Struggled This Earnings Season?
Yesterday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs. Yet investors are asking the obvious question: if earnings reports have generally been disappointing, why is the market still going up?
According to the latest data, the S&P 500's net profit margin for Q2 2025 is 12.3% — down from 12.7% in the previous quarter, but still higher than 12.2% a year ago and above the 5-year average of 11.8%. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter with profit margins above 12%, a streak only seen previously between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022. However, this is also the first quarter-on-quarter decline since Q4 2023.
Looking at individual company earnings, poor results often led to steep drops, while beats mostly brought only mild gains.
1. Semiconductors: All but NVDA and AMD Crumbled
AI favorites $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ continued to rally, boosted by Trump’s "AI Action Plan."
NVIDIA has doubled in just three months, rising from $86. The last time we saw a similar surge was between April and June last year — followed by a pullback in July. Will history repeat itself?
However, most chip stocks missed and were dumped.
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$: Missed expectations; stock dropped 14% over three days after earnings.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : Strong earnings beat; up 3% on the day, but followed by three straight days of decline.
$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ : Fell 13% due to vague guidance and lack of confidence from management.
$STMicroelectronics NV(STM)$ : Plunged nearly 16%, dragged down by weakness in automotive chips.
2. Big Tech: Less Surprise Than Expected
$Netflix(NFLX)$ : Down 5% post-earnings, entering a short-term downtrend.
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ : Solid earnings, but shares rose only 1% — far below the expected 5% post-earnings swing.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Dropped 8%; earnings lacked surprise, and core EV fundamentals remain weak, with no new narrative to support momentum.
3. Software: A Mixed Bag
$IBM(IBM)$ : Missed revenue growth expectations; stock dropped 10%.
$ServiceNow(NOW)$ : Beat estimates and raised full-year guidance; shares climbed 4%.
$SAP SE(SAP)$ : Fell 5% after earnings.
4. Consumer Staples: Clear Divergence
$Pepsi(PEP)$ : Up 7%, strong performance.
$Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ : Crashed 12% — are consumers getting priced out of burritos?
$Nike(NKE)$ : Gained 10% last quarter and maintained solid momentum.
Looking back at this earnings season, most companies struggled to post large gains. Even this morning, pre-market drops from $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ and $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ suggest that market momentum may be running out of steam.
Discussion:
After doubling in three months, can NVIDIA keep climbing, or will it face a pullback like last year?
This earnings season offered mixed results, yet markets keep hitting new highs — how long can this disconnect last?
Are sport brands worth buying like $Nike(NKE)$ and $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$?
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The market disconnect comes mainly from the optimism that trade deals will be struck by trump and there will be no recession. The market is generally forward looking so I think this disconnect will last till the next earnings when trump’s tariffs effect on the economy hits home harder than it is now.
The sports brand is a competitive industry with many of them having their production in overseas market with cheap labour. However, trump has already hit them with tariffs so I do expect sales and profit margin to be affected. Consumers are also more cautious with their spending which will compound the problem. So, I would prefer to stay clear of them.
Still, I’m cautious on NVDA after it doubled in three months. We saw a similar run-up last year, followed by a pullback. Unless there's another major catalyst, I wouldn’t be surprised if it cools off soon — especially as earnings momentum fades and valuations stretch.
On the consumer side, $Nike(NKE)$ and $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$ look more stable. Nike’s performance shows strong brand power and decent consumer demand. If that holds, I think these lifestyle brands could still offer good upside, especially compared to more volatile tech names.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Markets remain strong despite mixed earnings, fueled by AI hype and rate-cut hopes. The gap may close if growth or policy shifts disappoint。。。
Nike (NKE) offers long-term value recovery; Deckers Outdoor (DECK) shows strong near-term growth. Both are buyable - Nike for value, Deckers for momentum。。。
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@Huat99
至于市场为何在“好坏参半”的财报中还能持续走高，我觉得这更多是流动性与预期在博弈。一方面，美联储放缓加息步伐、降息预期升温；另一方面，市场在赌“坏消息就是好消息”，但这种错位的情绪能否持续，真的要看下半年经济数据是否配合。
最后谈谈运动品牌。我个人更偏好Deckers而不是Nike。前者在跑鞋品牌HOKA推动下增长势头强劲，毛利率也比Nike更健康；Nike则仍受中国市场疲软和渠道库存问题困扰。短期内如果要布局，我会选Deckers，毕竟成长性更强，回调后反而是机会。
$ASML控股公司(ASML)$：未達預期；財報公佈後三天內股價下跌14%。
$臺積電(TSM)$：盈利強勁；當日上漲3%，但隨後連續三日下跌。
$德州儀器(TXN)$：由於管理層指引模糊和缺乏信心，下跌13%。
$意法半導體(STM)$：重挫近16%，受汽車芯片疲軟拖累。