Holding any oversold quality names? π Dive into TigerAIβs 15 battered Dow megacaps.
$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ led the decline of 15 high-quality $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ components with a market capitalization over $100 billion.
Do you own any oversold high-quality stocks?
π Check out TigerAI's analysis.
I. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ declined almost 8 % on Tuesday after releasing earnings.
Key facts of $UnitedHealth(UNH)$
β’ Reported 29-Jul-2025 pre-market; stock closed β7.9 %.
β’ Options volume ranked #5 across all US names that day.
β’ YTD 2025 (to 29 Jul) UNH is β48.39 %, the steepest drop among US mega-caps (β₯ 100 bn USD).
β’ Tiger Trade βTop Boughtβ leaderboard: UNH has been the #2 most-bought stock over the last 20-, 10-, 5-, 3- and even 1-day windows; >10 k βsmart-moneyβ buy clicks.
Is it oversold? Will $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ reverse? When could it bounce?
What other quality names are also beaten-up?
II. Below is the screen (market-cap β₯ 100 bn USD) showing the 15 worst $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ -linked performers YTD 2025.
And here we used Tiger AI and it provides a Model Portfolio (100 % notional) as follow:
(Editorβs notes: all tables and figures re-compiled from public filings ; not investment advice.)
# | Symbol | Post-drop Valuation\* | Key Catalyst (0-12 Mo) | Catalyst Strength | Notes / Stop-loss($) |
1 | UNH | 2026E P/E 12.8Γ (5-yr low) | CMS final MA rates (Sep) + Optum Insight 15 % CAGR | β β β ββ | Scale in 230-240; stop 210 |
2 | CRM | Fwd P/S 6.5Γ (fair) | Agentforce 2.0 GA + Dreamforce guidance raise | β β β β β | Buy dips 260Β±10 |
3 | MRK | 2026E P/E 10.8Γ (ex-K 9Γ) | sotatercept peak \$50-55 B; 21-valent pneumo PDUFA 2026-H1 | β β β β β | Aggressive buy 75-80; stop 70 |
4 | AAPL | 2026E P/E 19Γ (ex-cash) | iPhone 17 foldable + China AI launch | β β β β β | DCA 195-200; stop 185 |
5 | PG | Fwd P/E 23Γ (mid-cycle) | Cost deflation + EM middle-class growth | β β βββ | Hold for 2.5 % yield |
6 | HD | Fwd P/E 21Γ (5-yr avg 23Γ) | Fed easing β housing turnover + store refresh 2026-27 | β β β ββ | Accumulate 365-370, tgt 430 |
7 | HON | Fwd P/E 19Γ (historical) | UAM eVTOL \$3 B backlog + \$9 B buyback | β β β ββ | Buy 220-225, tgt 280 |
8 | NKE | Fwd P/E 22Γ (inventory trough) | World Cup 2026 + Jordan 40th | β β β ββ | Buy 75-80, stop 70 |
9 | AXP | Fwd P/E 13Γ, ROE 32 % | Intl travel rebound + dividend hike | β β βββ | Hold only; trim >315 |
10 | MCD | Fwd P/E 24Γ (fair-high) | AI voice ordering + 2026 World Cup promo | β β βββ | Hold for 2.3 % yield |
11 | AMZN | EV/EBITDA 11Γ (peer low) | AWS AI ARR \$8 B + next Prime price hike | β β β β β | Core position; buy dips |
12 | VZ | Fwd P/E 9Γ, div yield 6.3 % | FWA 5 M subs + rate-cut rerating | β β β ββ | High-yield entry 40-43, stop 38 |
13 | DIS | Fwd P/E 22Γ (streaming profitable) | ESPN betting 2026 + Shanghai Park phase 3 | β β β β β | Add 115-120, tgt 150 |
14 | CVX | 2026E P/E 11Γ @ \$75 Brent | Tengiz expansion 2026 + oil >90 β extra buyback | β β β ββ | Hold; trim if oil >90 |
15 | WMT | Fwd P/E 25Γ incl. Flipkart option | Flipkart IPO (\$60 B) + 30 new Samβs China | β β β β β | Add on dips <95, tgt 120 |
Summary in shortοΌ
Oversold rebound (pick ONE for beta-recovery): $Merck(MRK)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ β 12 % weight.
Core-growth buy-and-hold: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ , $Walt Disney(DIS)$ β 17 %, add-only on dips.
Defensive + dividend buffer: $Verizon(VZ)$ , $McDonald's(MCD)$ , $Procter & Gamble(PG)$ β 8 %.
Cyclical / industrial: $Home Depot(HD)$ , $Honeywell(HON)$ , $Chevron(CVX)$ β 10 %, tactically re-balanced.
Cash buffer: 53 % cash or money-market, wait for Sep macro or geo event.
Risk rules: max 15 % single-stock draw-down β trim; portfolio Ξ² 0.85-0.90; rebalance last trading day each month.
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III. Stock-by-Stock Snapshot by @TigerAI
1. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$
Business: Largest US health insurer + PBM + data (Optum >50 % rev).
Q2 2025: Revenue 102.4 bn USD (+6 %), but 2.8 bn one-off Change Healthcare breach cost β net profit β23 %. FY EPS guide cut to 22.5-23.0 USD.
Valuation: Ex-items fwd P/E β 12.8Γ (10-yr low vs 17Γ mid-cycle). EV/EBITDA 9.1Γ.
Catalysts: 2026-27 MA rate final rule (Sep CMS); Optum Insight data CAGR 15 % 2025-28.
Risks: PBM antitrust bill (vote likely before 2026 election); MA medical-cost spike.
Idea Trade Zone: 230-240 USD βone-off cost floorβ; panic could wash to 210 USD. Start 2 % position, scale to 5 % post-clarity.
2. $Salesforce.com(CRM)$
Business:Cloud SaaS + Data Cloud + AI Agent platform.
Q2 2025:Net-revenue-retention 110 %. FQ1-2026: 9.26 bn USD rev (+11 %), RPO 56 bn USD; AI ACV 30 % of new bookings.
Valuation: fwd P/S 6.5Γ (peer avg 7-8Γ), FCF-margin 32 %, FCF/EV yield 4.9 %.
Catalyst: Agentforce 2.0 GA Aug; Dreamforce guidance raise.
Risks: IT budget freeze.
Idea Trade Zone: 260 Β±10 USD accumulation, 3-4 % growth sleeve.
3. $Merck(MRK)$
Business: Keytruda, Gardasil, animal health, pipeline.
Q2 2025: 16.1 bn USD rev (+7 %); sotatercept launch qtr-1 = 140 m USD.
Valuation: 2026E P/E 10.8Γ (ex-Keytruda 15Γ); div yield 3.2 %, 13-yr streak.
Catalysts: sotatercept peak 5-5.5 bn; 21-valent pneumo 2026-H1 approval; Keytruda SC sBLA 2025-Q4.
Risks: Keytruda US patent cliff 2028.
Idea Trade Zone: 75-80 USD βpatent pessimismβ; 3-5 % contrarian stake.
4. $Apple(AAPL)$
Business: Hardware + Services + Vision Pro/AI. Q3-2025: 85.6 bn USD rev (-1.3 %); China -11 %; Services 24.2 bn (+14 %).
Valuations: ex-cash fwd P/E 24Γ, FCF yield 4.4 %.
Catalysts: iPhone 17 foldable Sep 2025; Apple Intelligence China partner (TikTok/Tencent).
Risks: China demand; Vision Pro 0.5 m units 2025.
Idea Trade Zone: 195-200 USD ladder bids, +1 % each 5 USD drop, max 6 %.
5. $Procter & Gamble(PG)$
Business: 65 brand portfolio, 70 % global #1-2 share. Q4-2025: organic growth 6 % (price +4 %, vol +2 %).
Valuation: fwd P/E 23Γ, EV/EBITDA 16Γ, div 2.5 %.
Catalysts: EM middle-class; pulp cost tailwind.
Risks: FX headwind; US trade-down.
Idea Trade Zone: 150-155 USD hold for income, no add.
6. $Home Depot(HD)$
Business: Largest home-improvement retailer; Pro 50 % sales.
Q2-2025: comps β2 %, ticket +3 %; online +15 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 21Γ, FCF yield 5.1 %.
Catalysts: Fed easing β existing-home sales; 2026-27 store remodel cycle.
Risks: lumber deflation.
Idea Trade Zone:: 365-370 USD buy 3 %, target 430 USD.
7. $Honeywell(HON)$
Business: Aero, Building, Automation, Energy.
Q2-2025: 9.7 bn USD rev (+5 %); UAM eVTOL orders 3 bn USD.
Valuations: fwd P/E 19Γ, EV/EBITDA 14Γ.
Catalysts: UAM 2026 Paris Olympics debut; 9 bn USD buyback 2025-27.
Risks: defense budget cuts.
Idea Trade Zone: 220-225 USD accumulate 2-3 %, LT 280 USD.
8. $Nike(NKE)$
Business: Brand moat + DTC 44 %. Q4-2025: Greater China +4 %, North America β1 %; inventory β14 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 22Γ, EV/EBITDA 15Γ.
Catalysts: 2026 World Cup marketing; Jordan 40th anniversary.
Risks: NA wholesale softness.
Idea Trade Zone: 75-80 USD starter 2 %, wait inventory cycle turn.
9. $American Express(AXP)$
Business: Premium cards + closed-loop network; avg fee 185 USD.
Q2-2025: card-member spend +6 %; charge-off 2.6 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 13Γ, ROE 32 %.
Catalysts: intl travel; dividend hike 2025-26.
Risks: credit-cost acceleration.
Idea Trade Zone: 300 Β±5 USD range; no new position above 315 USD.
10. $McDonald's(MCD)$
Business: 42 k restaurants, 80 % franchised. Q2-2025: global comps +9 %, digital orders 40 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 24Γ, EV/EBITDA 18Γ.
Catalysts: 2026 World Cup meals; AI voice rollout.
Risks: labor inflation.
Idea Trade Zone: <300 USD dividend play, yield 2.3 %.
11. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Business: E-commerce + AWS + ads + logistics.
Latest: AWS 27.4 bn USD (+19 %), AI ARR 8 bn; NA retail op-margin 6.2 % ATH.
Valuations: 2026E EV/EBITDA 11Γ, cheapest mega-cap.
Catalysts: Bedrock price hike 15 % Aug; Prime fee hike window.
Risks: antitrust (FTC trial 2026).
Idea Trade Zone: 220-230 USD HODL, target 280 USD.
12. $Visa(V)$
Business: Wireless + FWA; 5G pop coverage 340 m.
Q2-2025: postpaid adds 320 k; broadband 400 k; FCF 9 bn half-yr.
Valuations: fwd P/E 9Γ, div 6.3 %, FCF payout 2.1Γ.
Catalysts: FWA 5 m subs; C-Band utilization.
Risks: debt 151 bn USD.
Idea Trade Zone: 40-43 USD high-dividend, 3-4 % weight.
13. $Walt Disney(DIS)$
Business: Media networks + parks + streaming + consumer.
Q3-2025: streaming profit 1.2 bn USD (first ever); parks +11 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 22Γ, EV/EBITDA 12Γ.
Catalysts: ESPN betting 2026; Shanghai park phase 3.
Risks: linear TV ad decline.
Idea Trade Zone: 115-120 USD add 3 %, PT 150 USD.
14. $Chevron(CVX)$
Business: Integrated oil; Permian 1.8 m boe/d.
Q2-2025: upstream profit $5.6 bn; buyback $3 bn.
Valuations: 75 USD oil 2026E P/E 11Γ; div 3.4 %.
Catalysts: Tengiz expansion 2026; >90 USD oil extra buyback.
Risks: carbon litigation; Kazakhstan politics.
Idea Trade Zone: 150 Β±5 USD; stop-loss 130 USD.
15. $Wal-Mart(WMT)$
Business: 10.5 k stores, US e-commerce share 7 %, ads 4 bn ARR.
Q2-2025: US comps +4 %, e-com +22 %, ads +29 %.
Valuations: fwd P/E 25Γ, EV/EBITDA 12Γ.
Catalysts: Flipkart India IPO 2025-H2 (600 bn INR val, WMT 75 %); Samβs China 30 stores 2026.
Risks: US low-end consumer weakness.
Idea Trade Zone: 90-95 USD add 2 %, LT 120 USD.
[Allin]Over to you Tigersβwhat other beaten-up quality names are on your radar?
Letβs discuss in the comments!
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In-Depth Analysis of UnitedHealth Group ($UNH)
Company Overview
UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) is a major player in the U.S. healthcare industry, providing both health insurance services and healthcare products through segments like UnitedHealthcare and Optum. Its business model benefits from the aging U.S. population, growth in Medicare enrollments, expansion of value-based care, and its dominant position in pharmacy benefits management. Looking forward, the healthcare sector is positioned to grow due to increasing demand driven by demographic shifts and advancements in medical technologies.
Recent Earnings Report and Earnings Forecast
2025Q2 Report:
EPS: $3.74
Net Profit Margin: 3.05%
Return on Equity (ROE): 13.94%
Operating Cash Flow-to-Current Liabilities: 0.26
Quick Ratio/Current Ratio: 0.51/0.85
Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio: 16.07
Analysis: UnitedHealth delivered a solid performance, showcasing profitability (ROE, net profit margin) but with low short-term liquidity (current and quick ratios). The healthcare demand post-pandemic remains strong, while margins suggest areas for operational efficiencies.
Earnings Forecast:| Year | Forecast EPS | Gross Income (USD Billion) | EBIT (USD Billion) ||------------|-------------------|---------------------------------|-------------------------|| 2025 FY | 18.86 | 449.49 | 27.37 || 2026 FY | 21.53 | 474.38 | 31.04 || 2027 FY | 24.54 | 503.03 | 34.85 |
Growth Trajectory: The forecast predicts steady single-digit to low double-digit growth in both earnings and operating income through 2027. Future growth will likely depend on efficient expense management and capital investments in Optum.
Recent Stock Price Performance and Capital Flow
Stock Trends:
Current Price: $261.07 (as of July 30, 2025)
Year-to-Date Performance: -48.39% (worst drop among mega-caps).
Support/Resistance Price: $260.88/$269.88
Average Cost Price: $283.24
Technical Analysis Suggestion: The stock is currently trading near its support level, indicating heavy institutional interest or selling exhaustion. However, breaking below $260 could invite further downside.
Capital Flow Data (5-Day):
July 28 marked an inflow of $35.16M, though it remains minimal compared to prior sustained outflows totaling over $400M.
1-Day Flow (July 29): Net outflows amounted to $2.06B, confirming heavy sell pressure.
Analyst Viewpoints & Target Price
Analyst Recommendations:
6 Strongly Recommend
13 Buy
6 Hold
3 Underperform
Target Price:
Mean Estimate: $368.59
Range: $270 (low) β $677 (high)
Conclusion: Analysts remain broadly optimistic given the stockβs significant decline and valuation. With a potential upside beyond $360, UNH could be compelling for long-term investors.
Bullish and Bearish News Influencing Price
Bullish:
Tiger Trade app reports $UNH as the #2 most-bought stock with over 10,000 "smart money" buy clicks within a 1-20 day range.
Healthcare demand remains stable, with $UNH poised to benefit from sector growth trends.
Bearish:
The stock has been heavily sold off post-earnings (-8% on July 29), signaling short-term pessimism regarding guidance or other metrics.
Year-to-date losses (-48%) reflect investor concerns over competitive pressures or sector-wide headwinds.
Investment Summary
Support Area: $260 Β±3
Risk Management: Stop-loss at $250
Upside Potential: Rebound to mid-$300s if fundamentals or sector catalysts emerge prominently.
Disclaimer
The content provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The stock market carries inherent risks, and prices can experience normal fluctuations. We encourage investors to do their due diligence before making any decisions.