To The Moon

Tiger Brokers - Commentary – 4 August 2025

BATMMAAN and the Indexes – Source: Tiger Trade

The US market closed sharply lower on Friday after struggling all week even after stellar results from Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday (US time).

The double whammy of rising tariff tensions and the disappointing July jobs report saw the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ declining 2.4% over the week, while the price weighted, old world, tariff sensitive $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ dropped nearly 3% and the tech heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.2%.

NON-FARM PAYROLLS

The key takeaways from the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for July 2025 released on Friday were:

·       Only +73,000 jobs were added in July, well below the ~110,000 consensus forecast and June’s revised 14,000 gain

·       May and June figures were revised down by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively—together cutting a whopping 258,000 jobs from prior estimates

·       The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in June.

·       Biggest downward revision since 2013 / Largest ever in March 2009 (GFC) -902,000

The weak jobs number and massive downward revisions rattled markets.

·       The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all dropped, while U.S. Treasury yields—particularly the 10‑ and 2‑year—fell sharply

·       Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged: probability jumped from ~38% to over 80% following the jobs report.  On Wednesday the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, as was largely expected by Wall Street, but in the accompanying Q&A session Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that the central bank isn’t quite ready for rate cuts.  What a difference two days make!

·       President Trump also ordered the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, raising concerns over data credibility and intensifying market anxiety

TARIFFS

Trump’s signing of his sweeping executive order which imposed tariffs from 10% to 41% on imports from about 70 countries, effective from 7th August except Canada where rates began 1st August, including:

·       Canada: Tariffs raised from 25% to 35% over goods entering the U.S., citing failure to curb fentanyl smuggling

·       India: Imposed 25% tariff rate

·       Taiwan: Set at 20%

·       South Africa: Facing 30% tariffs

·       Switzerland: Hit by 39% tariffs

·       New Zealand 15% and Australia 10%

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated these new rates are largely “fixed” and unlikely to be reduced in future negotiations.

CORPORATE QUARTERLY REPORTING

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ jumped more than 11% and Microsoft 4% on Thursday and stood out as the best performers among mega-cap U.S. stocks last week, thanks to robust earnings and strong AI growth narratives. Apple saw muted movement after reporting but fell 5.4% for the week and Amazon underperformed due to weak cloud outlook.  It fell 8.3% of Friday and 7.2% for the week.

Roughly 120 S&P 500 companies are expected to report this week

Monday, Aug 4

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ – up 104% YTD – most in S&P

$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ – without Warren Buffett

Tuesday, Aug 5

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ – up 42% YTD

$Pfizer(PFE)$

$Caterpillar(CAT)$

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ – up 86% YTD

Wednesday, Aug 6

ECONOMICS - ISM Service PMI

$Walt Disney(DIS)$

$McDonald's(MCD)$

$Uber(UBER)$

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$

Thursday, Aug 7

$Eli Lilly(LLY)$

$Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$

$Gilead Sciences(GILD)$

Rocket Lab (RKLB) – up 76% YTD

Friday, Aug 8

$Under Armour Class A(UAA)$

$Wendy's(WEN)$

$AMC Networks(AMCX)$

THEMES DRIVING MARKETS – US eMini futures are flat this morning

1.     Tariff Escalation & Trade Risk

2.     Labor Market Cooling

3.     Solid Corporate Resilience

Top-tier firms, especially in the AI space, continue to deliver strong earnings—supporting market optimism even as the broader economy slows. FactSet reports slight upward revisions to Q3 EPS estimates, bucking typical seasonal trends.

4.     Seasonal Weakness on the Horizon

History suggests the August (flat) ‑ September (-0.7%) timeframe tends to bring turbulence Since 1945 September is consistently the worst month by a significant margin; analysts view the current dip as a potential buying opportunity and caution against overleveraged or speculative plays. 

5.     Economic Data: Investors are watching ISM PMI data and other growth metrics; these will be critical ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Aug 21–23).

6.     Fed Outlook: The July meeting reaffirmed a wait‑and‑see approach, with no near‑term rate cut announced. The September cut is now almost certain given the job numbers.

7.     Technical Signals: The index recently pierced below its 20‑day moving average and formed a bearish engulfing candle—suggesting possible consolidation ahead unless buyers step in.  There is support at 6150 (closed at 6238 on Friday).  The VIX entered spiking mode jumping 22% on Friday.  The equity only put-call ratio rose to 0.84 on Thursday and 0.75 on Friday having been in the 0.5 to 0.6 range since mid May.

ENDS

About Greg Boland

Greg Boland is the Chief Strategy Officer for Tiger Brokers. His more than 35 years of specialist experience in capital markets include exchange management, investment advisory management, surveillance and risk and compliance, operations, and governance, and he is an authority in trading systems and methodologies (including online), exchange-traded equities and derivatives, equity options, index futures and options, and financial futures.

About Tiger Brokers in Australia

Tiger Brokers (Nasdaq: TIGR), founded in 2014, is a leading online brokerage firm with a focus on redefining global investing with technology for the next generation. Our unwavering mission of helping everyday Aussies, from beginners to experts, take full control of their investing journey and bringing our local knowledge and industry-leading share-trading platform to every investor.  Currently, Tiger Brokers serves over 10 million users and more than 2 million account holders worldwide on our flagship platform Tiger Trade, with 69 licenses and qualifications in different markets. In 2019, the company was listed on Nasdaq as UP Fintech Holding Limited under the ticker TIGR. For more information about Tiger Brokers, please visit https://www.tigerbrokers.com.au