[Stock Prediction] How will AMD close 06/08 following their earnings?
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ has had a strong year, with the stock up 46% YTD. Now all eyes are on its Q2 earnings, coming after the close on August 5 (ET). Can AMD keep the momentum going — or will the numbers disappoint?
📊 Wall Street expects:
Revenue: $7.42B (+27% YoY)
EPS: $0.49 (–29% YoY)
📌 What to Watch
AMD’s data center business — key to its AI future — is facing short-term issues. MI300 chip shipments were delayed, and some big customers cut orders. That could hurt Q2 numbers. But longer term, AMD is pushing ahead with its MI350 and upcoming MI400 chips.
The company also faced export restrictions for AI chips in some Asia-Pacific regions. That may reduce Q2 revenue by as much as $700 million. But AMD says license approvals are in progress, which could boost results later this year.
Other areas like gaming and embedded chips are still weak. So this report is a big test: Can AMD show it’s still a strong player in the AI race? AMD Q2 Preview: Data Center Faces Short-Term Pressure, Can AI Chip Iteration Sustain Long-Term Valuation?
AMD's Q2 2025 earnings call will be held on 6 August 2025 at approximately at 05:00 SGT. To set a reminder, please click here
💰Event Details
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⏰Event Duration
The deadline for this event is 04:00 on 6 August 2025
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$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 🔥🚀📈 AMD earnings: short-term noise or long-term AI supremacy? 📈🚀🔥
🧠 Technicals signal strength ahead of the print
I’m extremely confident that AMD’s Q2 earnings on 05Aug25 could redefine its AI trajectory. The 4H chart shows a textbook bullish continuation: AMD closed at $179.98 (+2.96%), reclaiming the upper Keltner band and stabilising above the 13/21/34 EMAs. Bollinger midline support and a clean bounce off the $172 zone confirm structural integrity. RSI holds above 60, MACD trends remain bullish, and momentum flow is rising. If we push past $183–$188 resistance, we could target $192.60, then $210 post-earnings. Downside invalidation sits near the 55 EMA around $164.
⚙️ Data Center: the core of AMD’s AI future
The Data Center unit, AMD’s AI engine, is projected to reach $3.31B in Q2 (+16.7% YoY), powered by EPYC Turin CPUs and MI300X accelerators. Demand from Meta, Microsoft, and Nokia reinforces hyperscaler trust; however, MI300 shipment delays and export restrictions to China could cost AMD $700M this quarter. That pressure is real, yet CEO Lisa Su’s confidence in license approvals suggests tailwinds for Q3. The MI350 and MI400 roadmap now becomes the key story to watch.
💻 Ryzen rises as gaming stumbles
I’m closely watching the client segment’s 69.3% YoY revenue jump to $2.52B, a clear sign Ryzen 5 chips are outperforming. Strong commercial PC demand, particularly through Dell and HP, provides ballast. Gaming remains underwhelming. Console chip sales slid 30% YoY in Q1, and while Radeon recovery offers upside, this segment still lags. Commentary on gaming’s rebound could shape investor positioning into Q4.
📉 Embedded segment: the structural drag
The Embedded division, expected to fall 4.9% to $818M, continues to weigh on sentiment. While the Xilinx acquisition adds capability, end-market softness in industrial and networking drags performance. AMD’s EPYC Embedded 9005 Series could stabilise this segment in H2 2025, but bulls will need patience. Near-term narrative strength lies firmly in AI, not embedded.
💸 Valuation premium needs justification
AMD trades at 44.25× forward P/E and 8.16× P/S, high but not unreasonable given Nvidia sits at 57.09× and institutional support remains strong. UBS ($210 PT) and Bank of America ($200 PT) recently upgraded AMD, banking on its next-gen MI350 and MI400 accelerators. Social sentiment is catching fire too, with MI350 chip prices reportedly rising 67% from $15K to $25K. Wall Street still leans bullish: 28 of 44 analysts call it a “Strong Buy,” despite a $145.90 average target suggesting short-term volatility.
🧱 Battling Nvidia with software and scale
This isn’t just a hardware race. AMD’s push to erode Nvidia’s CUDA software moat through ROCm signals a pivot to full-stack AI compute. The $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems bolsters rack-scale AI infrastructure, and if AMD can deliver performance parity with Blackwell-class GPUs, the long-term shift could be tectonic. Intel’s ongoing CPU challenges create room for AMD to expand toward 30% CPU market share by 2026, up from under 20% in 2023.
📊 Margin resilience vs. inventory bloat
Q2 margins are projected to compress to 43% (non-GAAP), largely due to an $800M charge tied to inventory reserves from export delays. Inventory now stands at 21% of trailing revenue, a red flag compared to Nvidia’s 7%. Still, AMD remains financially sound: $939M in operating cash flow and $727M in FCF support aggressive R&D and $749M in buybacks. If export headwinds fade, margin expansion could resume sharply into Q3.
🎯 The earnings call that could reshape the narrative
I’m positioning for this not as a binary beat/miss trade, but a narrative inflection. The 05Aug25 release and the 06Aug25 call at 05:00 SGT will be critical. Will we get Q3 guidance that offsets export damage? Are MI350 and MI400 chips tracking ahead of roadmap? Will Lisa Su address inventory normalisation and ROCm traction? This isn’t just about EPS; it’s about vision.
🧬 Conclusion: the AI-defined decade is now
AMD’s Q2 earnings represent a defining moment. It must prove that short-term turbulence, including MI300 delays, export bans, and gaming weakness, hasn’t derailed its AI thesis. If guidance is constructive, export licenses advance, and MI350 traction is real, then AMD may not just defend its rally; I believe the stock will move higher following earnings, potentially gaining 3–5%, supported by strong Data Center momentum and a historical 66.67% EPS beat rate.
The options market is pricing in a ±7.63% move, notably higher than AMD’s 5.8% average over the past year, which suggests increased expectation for volatility and upside potential. But if guidance disappoints or export licenses remain stalled, those gains may cap near the top of that range.
These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.
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Despite delays in MI300 shipments, AMD’s roadmap shows it’s still competitive in the AI space. Progress on export licenses could also support revenue in the coming quarters, even as gaming and embedded segments remain soft. The company’s ability to execute amid global headwinds will be crucial.
I’m targeting $195 USD for AMD, expecting either a surprise beat or strong guidance to drive momentum. If management delivers clarity on recovery and future AI growth, I believe the stock can continue its upward trend.
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voting doesn't work. But I think will drop at least 3% as it cannot rival Nvidia and other chip makers and sales will be affected.
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