To The Moon

$Caterpillar(CAT)$ $Deere(DE)$ $AGCO Corp(AGCO)$ I’m tactically cautious but pushing high-conviction capital here. $CAT is rebounding strongly from the 40-day moving average support (price holding near $412-415 zone), showing a classic “liquidity flush” pull-back and bounce.

Chart Breakdown

The stock is off its July record of $441.15 and is now pressing through short-term resistance. MACD is in a bullish crossover; RSI rolling upward from mid-range, not overbought yet. Bollinger Bands are tightening and begin to expand upward. Keltner Channel mid offers dynamic support aligning with the 40-DMA. No Fibonacci, Ichimoku or AVWAP levels in my visuals, but price action suggests a breakout above mid-channel is underway. Call-put flow tells the real story: a 50-day call/put volume ratio at 1.64 (88th percentile) signals call-heavy positioning, and implied vol being in the 6th percentile (SVI 23%) highlights cheap entry amid complacency. SVS score of 88/100 means the stock routinely crushes vol expectations.

Earnings Snapshot

I’m seeing a “market reckoning” catalyzed by Evercore ISI’s upgrade to Outperform with a $476 price target; 15% upside and structural validation. Analyst David Raso notes resilient equipment margins, volume leverage in North America, and reduction in discounting as underpinning EPS upside into 2025–26. He highlights Caterpillar’s leaner production (less than dealers sell) as inventory normalization that supports margin lift and earnings gains (benzinga.com, barrons.com).

Segment Revenues

I’m riding the rebound in construction equipment sales, but Eisenpoint: Caterpillar’s power-generation and data-center exposure acts as a secondary rocket; diversified tailwinds beyond construction alone (investing.com).

Flow & Institutional Moves

I’m seeing $1.6 million in 420 C Sept 19 call flow, plus a $139K weekly call buyer. That’s institutional conviction lighting the fuse behind this move. Bill Gates’ foundation holds Caterpillar as a core position, with 5.97% of its $48B portfolio allocated here, underscoring long-term conviction from one of the world’s most influential investors. That surge of call flow layered onto demand zones from Sept 2022 is not divergence; it’s detachment, with traders and institutions alike betting on blow-off.

Valuation Check

Current price ~$412–415. Evercore $476 PT (~15% upside). FactSet consensus PT ~$454 (~10% upside) (tradingtechai.medium.com, gurufocus.com). Fair-value analysis ranges lower, but bulls are being rewarded: margin resilience, inventory destocking, and diversified demand suggest 2026 growth ahead (gurufocus.com). JPMorgan at $520, BofA $495, Bernstein $447 reinforce upward skew (investing.com).

Analyst PTs & Sentiment

Evercore: Outperform, PT $476 (barrons.com). FactSet consensus avg PT ~$454 (marketscreener.com). Broader analyst upgrades sweeping in. Bulls dominate, yet still ~46% of analysts rate hold or worse; fuel for continuation rather than exhaustion.

My Trade Plan

I’m entering tactically aggressive long calls; preferably Sept 19 420C and nearer-dated spreads, taking advantage of cheap implied volatility (SVI 23%, bottom 6%). I’m layering into the breakout above the 40-DMA support, aligning with call flow momentum and bullish MACD/RSI. My stop is just under $410 or 40-DMA. Target zones: initial retest of $441.15, then moving toward upper Bollinger/Keltner breakout and Evercore’s $476 level. If this fades, prove me wrong; time decay and low vol offer defined risk.

Conclusion

This isn’t divergence; it’s detachment, and a conviction-driven setup. Cheap implied vol, structural margin story, call-heavy positioning, technical rebound; all coalesce into a high-heat breakout setup cycling toward industry-leading upside. Macro tailwinds from AI/data-center and North American infrastructure create cross-sector synergy. Prove me wrong if CAT doesn’t rip.

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