To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ I’m convinced $PLTR’s -20.15% plunge since 13Aug25 marks a structural stress test for one of the market’s most speculative AI darlings.

🎯 Executive Summary:

The stock has now logged a 5-day losing streak, collapsing from $186 to $147, breaching critical support zones despite stellar Q2 results ($1B+ revenue, +48% YoY). Reuters noted Palantir was the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, -9% to $157.75, down 12% over five days, and now trading about 20% below its 12Aug ATH. YTD gains remain +118%, with +409% over 52 weeks, which magnifies the risk of profit-taking. Options flow confirms the selloff: over $21M in short-dated puts were bought this week, IV skew steepened, and downside protection bid aggressively. With RSI collapsing and the 50DMA at $152.46 breached, the market is debating whether this is healthy profit-taking or a credibility reset.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown:

Palantir delivered record Q2 revenue of $1.0B, +48% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $0.16 (+77% YoY). Net income surged to $326.7M, and adjusted op. margin exceeded 40%. U.S. Commercial revenue rocketed +93% YoY while Government revenue added +53%. TCV booked $843M in U.S. Commercial (+222% YoY) and $2.8B overall RDV (+145%). Net dollar retention hit 128%, cementing the “Rule of 94.” Despite this, valuation is stretched absurdly: 214x forward earnings vs S&P 500 at 22x, and 588x trailing P/E vs Nvidia’s 58x.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk:

Execution is Palantir’s strength in contracts but weakness in scalability. Heavy reliance on government deals makes growth lumpier than peers. Short-seller Andrew Left said on Fox Business that Palantir is “a company now detached from fundamentals and analysis.” Citron Research was more blunt: “Palantir – All Roads Lead to $40. This Time, Databricks. … Palantir is a $40 stock, and every real AI leader keeps reminding us of that fact.” Competition is intensifying: Databricks valued at $100B, OpenAI at $500B (17x forward sales), and CoreWeave with a $30B+ backlog growing at triple-digit rates. These peers highlight Palantir’s precarious pricing power. Jim Cramer, days before the selloff, tweeted: “Palantir not even waiting until the bell to run to $200. Very strong.” That enthusiasm has aged poorly as price collapsed beneath $150.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment:

Wall Street is split: of 29 analysts, 7 Buy, 4 Sell, and the rest Hold. PTs range from $45–$210, consensus ~$120–$135. FactSet data highlights the difficulty in evaluating at this multiple. Enterprise Development Holdings purchased 8,000 shares at $173.19, bringing its position to 24,000, a sign of institutional conviction. But options flow skews heavily bearish: puts went 100%+, with the tape showing, “Theory A: long as $171.60 needs to hold, longs are ok. I think you understand how important $153 is right? When the mania is high, go short. 17OCT25 $175p 13.6 → 17.5, 18.5, 28.5.” ETFs such as $QQQ, F, and $SMH maintain exposure, but rotation out of hyper-valued AI is evident.

📉📈 Technical Setup:

Charts confirm structural weakness:

• RSI rolled over from 70s into sharp decline, nearing oversold.

• MACD trending bearish, crossovers confirming momentum down.

• Breached 50DMA ($152.46), next supports: $153.48, $135.97, $127.22.

• Resistance: 165.55, 169.01, 171.98, 176.79, 179.76, 183.34, with stretch at 189.23.

• Weekly pivots: 174.03 (resistance), 151.58 (MA support), 104.07 (long-term floor).

• Candlestick system flagged “Black covers white 1,” aligning with a volatile decline trend and “no obvious short-term support.”

• 4H Keltner & Bollinger: price sliced through lower envelopes, confirming momentum breakdown.

• 2-minute chart: EMA 13 < EMA 21 < EMA 55, price hugging the lower Keltner and Bollinger, capped at ~147–148. Overhead supply bands stacked 160–164, 168, 172–176. Intraday tape signals relentless sell pressure until EMA 55 is reclaimed on volume.

• Over the past year, Palantir has recovered the 50-day moving average three separate times, each serving as a springboard for fresh rallies. Today marks the fourth test, but unlike before, price sliced decisively lower, down another 10%. The chart highlights this sequence with three successful defenses and a current breakdown that aligns ominously with the Citron short thesis. Whether “the fourth time is a charm” will depend on whether bulls can quickly reclaim the 50DMA or whether bears press momentum toward $135–140.

For those who believe Palantir’s run is over, this scaling pattern suggests otherwise. Each cycle (Scale 1, Scale 2, Scale 3) has followed a fractal-like expansion, consolidating before pushing to new highs. If history rhymes, the recent drawdown may be part of a much larger structural advance that could extend well into 2026. In my opinion, the pattern argues that Palantir still has significant upside once the current reset plays out.

💡 Market Cap Lens

Palantir’s market capitalisation currently sits at $374.24B, after shedding $69.32B in a single week. While dramatic, the company has seen worse periods in the past and rebounded. What’s different this time is the scale: this wipeout came immediately after the stock peaked at nearly half a trillion dollars in value.

The divergence between fundamentals and valuation is striking. Revenue has been climbing steadily; reaching $1.0B in Q2-25, yet the market capitalisation ballooned far more aggressively, peaking above $430B before retracing sharply. This chart shows the imbalance clearly: execution has been strong, but multiples ran ahead of reality, and the market just forced a reset.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context:

AI sector cooled: SOUN -9%, Tempus AI -7%, Unity -6%, C3.ai -5%, Duolingo -4%. Nvidia (+33% YTD) and Palantir (+116% YTD) trail CoreWeave’s +125% rally since March IPO. CoreWeave Q2 revenue tripled to $1.21B; contracted power capacity surged 37% QoQ to 2.2GW; backlog now exceeds $30B. Management raised 2025 revenue outlook to $5.25B, underscoring growth superiority vs Palantir. Macro backdrop: Fed holding restrictive rates, market rotation favors cash-flow generative tech over premium AI multiples.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health:

• Forward P/E: 214x (vs peer avg ~40x).

• EV/EBITDA: >100x, vs SaaS median ~20x.

• Price-to-sales ~30x, extreme vs OpenAI’s ~17x and Databricks’ ~20x.

• Cash healthy, debt minimal, FCF strong, but valuation multiple signals asymmetric downside if growth stumbles.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan:

I’m calling this a Hold-to-Sell zone short term, Buy-the-Dip only if $135–140 holds. Swing traders: Entry $140–145, Stop $127, Targets $165 (base) and $179 (stretch). Confirmation requires bullish reversal candles and easing in bearish put flow. Catalysts: gov contract renewals, AI SaaS adoption, Fed September meeting.

🏁 Conclusion:

I’m resolute this isn’t just a correction; it’s a credibility reset. Palantir has officially entered bear market territory. Breaking: $PLTR extends decline to over -20% since 13Aug25. Palantir has now shed $69B in market cap in a single week, underscoring how fragile sentiment has become even for high-growth names. “Time in the market beats timing the market,” but this is a reminder that hype cannot outrun valuation gravity forever. Execution beats hype. That’s why I’m here.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Q2 revenue $1B (+48% YoY), EPS $0.16 (+77% YoY), Net Income $326.7M

• RSI collapsed, MACD bearish, candlestick flagged “Black covers white 1”

• Support 153.48, 135.97, 127.22; Resistance 165.55, 171.98, 176.79, 179.76, 183.34

• Options flow: $21M+ in puts; 17OCT25 $175p 13.6 → 17.5, 18.5, 28.5; puts up 100%+

• Short data: daily short vol 9.46M; short ratio 6.86; short interest 37.73M; Days to Cover 1.00

• Analyst PTs $45–$210; consensus ~$135; Citron says “all roads lead to $40”

• Institutional buy: Enterprise Dev added 8,000 shares at $173

• Cramer 13Aug: “Palantir … run to $200. Very strong.” Price now $143

• Broke 50DMA for the fourth time in a year; prior three recoveries held, but this break aligns with Citron’s short thesis

• Market cap $374.24B, down $69.32B from ATH in a week

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