To The Moon

Eve of Inflation Report. On the eve of US Consumer price index (CPI) report release for July 2025, general consensus is pointing to an uptick in US inflation. US consumers probably experienced a slight pickup in underlying inflation in July as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties. US - YoY CPI & Core CPI with July 2025 estimates Economists’ Estimates. According to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, US core CPI, widely regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, will rise by +0.3% in July. This will be a creep up from June 2025’s core CPI that has also edged up +0.2% from the prior month. While that would be the biggest gain since the start of 2025, Americans who drive, will find some offset at the gas pump. The CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show that cheaper gasoline, likely kept overall headline CPI to a +0.2% gain. Central Bank Estimates. The Federal Reserves Bank of Cleveland’s CPI latest estimates (dated 08 Aug 2025) overall are more conservative (meaning, bleak!) compared to economists’ estimates. (see above) Headline CPI (MoM) is at +0.31% vs economists’ estimates of +0.3%. Core CPI (MoM) is at +0.24% vs economists’ estimates of +0.2%. Headline CPI (YoY) is at +2.86% vs June 2025’s +2.7% Core CPI (YoY) is at +3.02% vs June 2025’s +2.9%. Regardless, whether July 2025 CPI actuals are more in lined with economists or Reserves Bank of Cleveland forecasts - the verdict is inflation is heating up in US (again !) Where It Hits The Hardest. Higher US tariffs have started to filter through to consumers in categories such as household furnishings and recreational goods. The separate measure of core services inflation has so far remained tame. Still, many economists expect higher import duties to start gradually feeding through. US Fed Reserves - Dual Conflict. This is going to be a dilemma for Fed officials who have kept interest rates unchanged so far in 2025, in hopes of gaining clarity on whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation. At the same time, the labour market, the other half of US central bank’s dual policy mandate, is showing signs of losing momentum. Jobless Claims. (1) Weekly Jobless claims. For the week ended 02 Aug 2025, US weekly jobless claims report by US Labour Department reported first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by +7,000 to 226,000 claims, up from previous week’s upwards revised 219,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 221,000 from the 218,000 originally reported. Latest filing, ticked up to the highest level in a month, suggesting US labour market was largely stable with job creation weakening and it is taking laid-off workers longer to find new employment. The ‘good’ news is the 4-week average jobless claims, that smooths out big changes, slipped to 220,750; down -500 from the week before revised average of 221,250. According to Oxford Economics, Lead economist, Nancy Vanden Houten: The level of weekly jobless claims is "consistent” with a low pace of layoffs. (2) Continuing Jobless claims. Again, the same could not be said for US Continuing claims report for week ending 26 Jul 2025. Continuing claims, an indication of the size of the total unemployed population, came in at 1.97 million, compared with 1.936 million a week earlier. (see above) This is the highest level of continued claims since November 2021, with the +38,000 weekly increase also the largest since late May 2025. It is clearly a sign that slow hiring is making it harder for people out of work to find new jobs. The continuing-claims data lag the initial-claims data by a week. One consolation is despite the rise in both new and ongoing claims last week, economists noted the two reports continue to remain largely range-bound and have not exhibited breakout upswing that in the past has signaled a deteriorating job market. As concerns build about the durability of US job market, many companies will be exploring ways to limit the tariff pass-through to price-sensitive consumers. Retail Sales as Moderator ? US Retail Sales for June 2025 (last month) In a sort of “bizaare” event, economists are expecting US retail sales report (for July 2025) due on Fri, 15 Aug 2025, to show solid gains, as (a) incentives helped fuel vehicle purchases and (b) $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Prime Day sale drew in online shoppers. This report could hopefully provide the much-needed positive counterbalance to the quite-likely inflationary US CPI report out on Tue, 12 Aug 2025 morning. Excluding auto dealers, economists have penciled in a more moderate advance. When adjusted for price changes, US retail sales figures will likely underscore an uninspiring consumer spending environment. My viewpoints : (mine only) On the run up to US inflation reports release (CPI or PCE), US market will always exhibit signs of nervousness. Whether jittery will persist post report release, depend on how “fatal” the data set is. General consensus is hotter inflation numbers could: Give investors reason to pause. Derail the months-long market rally. Reviving worries of stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise. US-Russia Alaska Summit. The impending Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska on Fri, 15 Aug 2025, aims to address the 3-years war in Ukraine. Rumours have it that Trump will suggest, possible territorial swaps that could reshape the conflict's landscape. This summit comes with uncertainty for US market on Friday. Investors will weigh the potential (1) for a de-escalation of sanctions against Russia or (2) conversely, new tariffs imposition and secondary sanctions aim at Russian trading partners. A breakthrough could: Ease geopolitical risks. Stabilize energy prices, benefiting market sentiment. On the other hand, a failure or ambiguous outcome could: Heighten volatility. Reversing US uptrend to be downwards trending. It sure looks like it is going to be a bumpy ride on the US Market express this week - hoping for long lasting peace (at last) and being skeptical about substantive progress, all at the same time. Technical Indication ? Technically, should we remain optimistic this week: With less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day moving average. (see above). And the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is just 0.01% away from a new all-time high (ATH). Call me old-fashioned, conservation or whatever… This is really not a good breadth. It’s not end of world, yet to witness $Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$ soar last week (see above), could it be signs of things to come, this week? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. TSLA Empire Cracking Or Rough Patch Only ? Mon, 11 August. Pick post. $100 Billion Gap AAPL Didn't Tell, Yet Mkt Rally. Fri, 08 August. Idea post. US Market & Economy & The Mid-Week Reports. Thu, 07 August. Pick post. Do you think CPI reports will halt US market rally this week ? Do you think there will be positive news coming out from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents