To The Moon

⚡ Jackson Hole Tonight: Dip, Rally… or Trap This Time?

Every August, the quiet town of Jackson Hole turns into Wall Street’s thunder dome. When Jerome Powell speaks, markets don’t just listen — they jerk, whiplash, and rebound.

This Friday could be no different. With rate cuts on the horizon, inflation cooling but still sticky, and stocks already stretched, Powell’s words might decide whether we see another classic “dip-then-rip” play… or the first real crack in the bull run.

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📉 The History: Why Traders Call It “Classic”

2022: Powell unleashed hawk mode → S&P -3% in a single day.

2023: Same tough inflation stance → markets slipped again.

2024: Even with a dovish tilt, stocks still dipped before bouncing.

> Jackson Hole has become a ritual: sell first, rethink later, rally after.

That’s why traders are circling tonight — looking for déjà vu.

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📊 2025 Feels Trickier

Here’s what’s different this year:

Rate cut odds → Futures put September cuts at ~65%.

Growth wobble → Corporate earnings show slowing demand.

Valuations stretched → The S&P trades above 21x forward earnings.

That means one hawkish sentence from Powell could extend the correction. A dovish lean, though, may turn the dip into another rocket-fueled rebound. 🚀

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💡 Investor Psychology: FOMO vs Fear

For traders, this is the ultimate test of discipline vs adrenaline.

FOMO case (bullish): Buy the dip, history repeats, rebound pays.

Fear case (bearish): Powell disappoints, “higher for longer” sticks, correction deepens.

Neutral stance: Wait for the dust to settle, then position.

Remember: volatility is both opportunity and trap.

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⚖️ What to Watch Tonight

The exact wording on inflation: “progress” vs “still elevated.”

Tone on September → “meeting by meeting” = uncertainty, “appropriate to cut” = green light.

Bond yields reaction: If 10Y drops, equities likely catch a bid.

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🔮 Possible Scenarios

1️⃣ Classic Playbook: Market dips -1% to -2% → fast rebound into next week.

2️⃣ Hawk Shock: Powell pushes back on cuts → dip extends, tech hit hardest.

3️⃣ Dovish Surprise: Signals readiness to ease → stocks gap higher, shorts get squeezed.

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